Because there are 9 boys for every 10 girls? False and true song…

Where have 1.6 million Russians gone? From September, Rosstat began publish the first final results of the 2021 census. From the very beginning, the attitude towards her was skeptical.

The first general census of the population of the Russian Empire was carried out 125 years ago, in 1897. The officially declared goal: “To compose accurate concepts about the most diverse conditions of popular life.” And now it is the only reliable source on the size and composition of the population of Russia at the end of the 19th century.

The principles and recommendations adopted by the United Nations state: “The population and housing census plays a key role in public administration.”

But Moskovskaya Pravda wrote back in early January that the census conducted from October 15 to November 14, 2021, does not correspond to this most important task. Everyone remembers the farcical rush report of 99% population coverage. Although all around there was only talk that no one came to them, did not ask about anything.

Already in December, an authoritative sociological service presented the results of a survey: 42% of Russians did not take part in the census, and 73% in Moscow.

Where did they get data on family income, the size of the plot, the availability of running water, sewerage, heating, and so on? “From the ceiling”? That is, in local passport offices, in the materials of past censuses, or even in the most literal sense – in brief reflections while contemplating the ceiling.

And now, relying on the “ceiling information”, government structures will make plans, outline projects? It turns out not a census, but a diversion against the system of public administration.

From September, Rosstat began to publish the first final results.

According to the 2010 census, the permanent population of Russia was 142.9 million people.

According to the 2021 census, the permanent population of Russia is 147 182 123 human.

Let’s take into account that during this decade the population of Crimea has been added to us – 2.4 million. However, even without taking it into account, there seems to be an increase of 2 million. But only – it seems.

Because simultaneously with the ongoing census, the same Rosstat in a special Bulletin announced: the number of permanent population of the Russian Federation as of January 1 of this year – 145 557 576 human.

The difference with the census results is 1.6 million.

And what does 1.6 million mean, which either does not seem to exist, or does not seem to exist? These are child allowances, places in schools, kindergartens, accounting and funding for the construction of new schools and kindergartens, these are pensions, social benefits. Finally, it is about 900 thousand working-age population. Which seems to be working, receiving salaries, deducting taxes. Or is there none of that? That is, on one paper it is, but on the other it is not?

In total, for 11 years, if you subtract the Crimean addition, the population of the Russian Federation has not grown?

One value remains constant for 50 (!) years – the difference between the number of men and women. As of January 1, 2022, both according to the census data and according to separate calculations by Rosstat, the gap is still the same as it has been since 1970 – 10.5 million.

It is believed that this is an “echo of the Second World War.” In 1959, according to the first post-war census, the difference was 20 million.

The elders remember the popular song of the 1960s:

“Today is a holiday for the girls: Today there will be dancing!
And the girls’ cheeks are on fire
In the morning they burn with a blush.
The girls came
Standing on the sidelines
Handkerchiefs in the hands of teasing.
Because ten girls
According to statistics, nine guys.
And the guys are full of importance
Picky terribly.
And stay along the wall
Those who came in vain…”

Sad picture. And it does not encourage, but, in my opinion, increases sadness with a seemingly optimistic couplet based on the indestructibility of human nature:

“Today let no luck
Girls for some reason.
They are out of spite for statistics
They’ll be back on Saturday!”

However, let’s put aside the emotions. And let’s look at the 1959 demographic that gave rise to this 1966 song in terms of numbers and facts.

Yes, there are 20 million fewer men. The war blew up. But with young people, it’s a completely different picture.

According to the 1959 census, there were more boys aged 15-19 (the same “dancing” age) than girls of the same age – by 134 thousand.

Then what is the song based on? Yes, on statistics, but only on the general one, which made a shocking impression on the author-poet. And in no way applicable to the song. Then what is it about? The paradox is about the truth of life.

We see the stage with our own eyes – dancing in a village club. Guys are much less than girls. Because, firstly, guys 18-20 years old were drafted into the army. Secondly, after graduating from a seven-year school, many boys left to study at vocational schools. And then they tried with all their might to stay in the district center, in the city.

Thus, the song is paradoxical – and untrue, and at the same time true.

As for dancing, the statistics are still the same as in 1959. During these 63 years, there were and are more young men aged 15-19 than girls.

But then it starts…

Since 1959, the gap of 20 million had halved by 1970 to 10 million. And remains unchanged for 52 years.

Why?

We repeat: there are more boys aged 14-19 than girls for 63 years now.

But from the age of 30-35, the extinction of men begins. Of those who die between the ages of 18 and 60, 80 percent are men. From various diseases (mainly from a heart attack), from alcoholism, which most often gives rise to diseases.

And this is a completely different statistic.

Sergey BAIMUKHAMETOV

Pictured: Yury Kugach’s painting “Before dancing”, 1961