Banks bet on regularity – Kommersant FM

Banks began to reconsider the conditions for deposits after the regulator’s decision to increase the key rate. But if the Central Bank raised it by two percentage points, the dynamics for end consumers turned out to be much more modest: some market players, for example, increased the yield on deposits by only a few tenths of a percent. Why? And can the situation change over time? Ivan Yakunin will tell you.

At Sberbank, the maximum rate increased to 14%, at Tinkoff Bank – to 14.1%. True, these are the conditions for clients with a special subscription. For regular users, conditions only changed to 12%.

Offers improved slightly at Gazprombank, where this also affected savings accounts, as well as at MKB and Rosbank. The VTB Group, which includes Otkritie Bank, announced a revision, but has not yet disclosed the details. Previously, they noted that the maximum yield could be 15% “in the near future.”

These will probably be special offers for certain categories of clients, noted Pavel Samiev, general director of the BusinessDrom agency:

“Banks never sharply increase deposit rates because they need to be regulated in a more flexible way.

They can still adjust, raise it by half a percentage point or another point. As a result, the overall dynamics may be close to what the regulator does with the key rate, but they do not increase in one move.

I assume that by the end of the year we will still see some more adjustments, and the average deposit rate will increase, albeit slightly, within 0.3 percentage points.”

Another fact suggests that you can’t expect high returns on deposits. Until now, according to the Financial Services platform, short-term deposits remain the most attractive. If for a year the average maximum rate in the top 50 banks is 11.5%, then for six months it is already more than 12%.

This means that banks will save until the last minute on raising funds, says Yegor Lopatin, deputy director of the group of financial institutions ratings of the NKR agency: “Despite the fact that the Central Bank really made it clear that the double-digit rate will continue next year, most likely, banks are not yet they want to assume interest rate risk for themselves over a long-term horizon.

The situations, of course, cannot be compared, but nevertheless, in 2022, when the key rate was 20%, banks were also very fond of deposits for a period of three to six months. At that time, the conditions for such products sounded very attractive, but in fact the annual profitability was noticeably lower. Still, the largest players expect that in six months the rate may actually be lower.”

This, however, contradicts the regulator’s rhetoric. Thus, its head Elvira Nabiullina said at the last meeting that the Central Bank is ready to further raise the key rate if it does not see signs of a sustainable slowdown in inflation. The updated forecast suggests that the figure could rise to 16% this year.

But for now this is an unlikely scenario, says Bloomberg Economics Russia economist Alexander Isakov: “We are already beginning to see the effects of an increase in the demand for loans. I think it is complete for all practical purposes. The rate is very high, in real terms it will definitely lead to easing pressure on inflation.

Moreover, the Bank of Russia justifiably reacts to the data. Therefore, I think as soon as we see a reduction in the retail loan portfolio and a slowdown in inflation, the regulator will change its rhetoric. It is likely that we can talk about the first rate reduction in the first half of 2024.”

For now, however, a third of Russians are waiting for a further increase in deposit rates. 12% are ready to transfer money under more favorable conditions, without waiting for the expiration of the current contracts. This is data from VTB, which conducted a survey among residents of large cities.

There is at least one serious argument for such a scenario: the New Year is coming, and banks will start hunting for Russians’ annual bonuses. This is a chance to find more attractive conditions.

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