“Baku clearly feels that there is a window of opportunity” – Kommersant FM

The words of the head of the Armenian parliament that Moscow gave Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan are incorrect. This was stated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Meanwhile, the media, in addition to Yerevan’s criticism of the Kremlin, also pay attention to the new build-up of Azerbaijani forces in the region. Against this background, EU observers have stepped up border patrols near Nagorno-Karabakh. Kommersant FM columnist Mikhail Gurevich wondered what a new escalation of the situation could lead to.

Azerbaijan and Armenia are again on the brink of military conflict. Social networks are filled with video footage of the movements of armored vehicles, observers record an increase in military supplies from Israel and Turkey to the airfield in Ganja, and it seems that nothing can prevent new bloodshed.

Against this background, it is difficult to escape the impression that Armenia’s actions are completely devoid of any strategic thought. Appeals to Moscow are replaced by the recall of the representative to the CSTO and words that Yerevan is beginning to migrate towards an alliance with the West. Attempts to organize an emergency conversation with Ilham Aliyev are accompanied by presidential elections in Nagorno-Karabakh. The political elite, be it the government or the opposition, have no vision of a way out of the impasse in which the country finds itself.

The dead end is not only economic, but primarily existential. For three decades, the Armenian state was inspired by the victory in the First Karabakh War and confidence in Russia’s allied obligations. Now the country feels that both basic pillars are no longer relevant. Similar emotions reign in the diaspora. Even Kim Kardashian could not resist and appealed to US President Joe Biden to “stop the new Armenian genocide.”

Armenians simply do not believe that when hostilities begin, someone will be able to help them. The West is not ready yet, but Russia… What about Russia? It seems that Moscow simply does not want to interfere. We don’t have enough weapons ourselves, and a quarrel with Baku under sanctions is not the most far-sighted decision. As a result, the Russian Foreign Ministry summons the Armenian ambassador and protests to him, and on federal channels we increasingly hear vague discussions about international law.

It is worth noting here that the thesis about the sovereign lands of Azerbaijan does not fit well with a similar approach to the problem of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in 2008. Then, after all, Russian peacekeepers were also located in the unrecognized republics, which, according to all international laws, were, and continue to be, Georgian territory. However, this circumstance did not prevent the “blue helmets” from being replaced by a regular army and so-called peace enforcement actions.

I will say more, sometimes in order to reassure your ally and reduce the degree of tension, firm guarantees are enough. One of these could be a statement by the CSTO on the application of the principle of collective defense in the event of a violation of the territorial integrity of Armenia. Well, apparently, the CSTO considers the situation in the Caucasus less dangerous than in January 2022 in Kazakhstan, for example.

In turn, Baku’s line of behavior looks much more logical and consistent. Azerbaijan is determined to finally close the Karabakh issue and provide a transport corridor to Nakhichevan. As the head of the Republic’s Foreign Ministry, Jeyhun Bayramov, said last week: “Baku has a “plan B” to open the Zangezur corridor without the participation of Armenia.” It is not yet clear whether this means a military option or reaching an agreement with Iran, but Baku clearly feels that there is a window of opportunity, and if all the problems are not resolved now, then the next chance can be waited for decades.

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