Argentina is dangerously divided on the eve of the decisive day of presidential elections: “Patience will not last long”

On Sunday, November 19, the second round of the presidential elections in Argentina starts. The latest polls show the race is shaping up to be tight. It is impossible to determine a clear leader: both the winner of the first round, Sergio Massa, and the libertarian with very specific views, Javier Miley, have real chances of winning.

Argentine voters are angry and scared. This is how Reuters characterizes the atmosphere in the Latin American country on the eve of the second round of presidential elections. The outcome of the race could change everything: diplomatic relations, the economic future and the political lines of the region as a whole.

The fight on Sunday will unfold between the two leaders of the first round of elections, which took place in October: the current Minister of Economy and the winner of the first round of the race, Sergio Massa, and the libertarian-populist Javier Miley will compete for a place in the Casa Rosada (the official residence of the President of Argentina).

Argentine sociologists claim (and in this case it would be reasonable to say they warn) that the second round on November 19 could go in any direction. Remembering Miley’s shocking victory in the primary elections, analysts are very cautious in their forecasts.

Polls, of course, are a very controversial thing, but they should not be ignored. Most of the latest analyzes show that Miley has a slight advantage over Massa. However, the minuscule gap only underscores what will be a truly tight race. The electorate is deeply divided. But you shouldn’t be happy or upset about the survey results in advance.

“If elections were held today, Miley would win. But you have to take into account what happened in the primary election and in the general election: changes of four or five points in the last week or even in the last three or four days,” predicts Sheila Wilker, director of the consulting company Trespuntozero.

On the one hand, there is anger towards the current government in Buenos Aires and beyond. First of all, due to serious problems in the economy: inflation is approaching 150%. This factor provided Javier Miley with a sharp and, for many, unexpected political rise.

On the other hand (as the first round of elections actually showed), the electorate also fears the figure of Miley. His outspoken and even aggressive speaking style has led some to compare him to former US President Donald Trump. “Argentine Trump” often appeared at rallies, brandishing a chainsaw (a symbol of his plans to cut government spending), allowed himself harsh statements about the country’s still-current president Alberto Fernandez and his team, and once even called pesos “excrement” (in the local press Now this is all they constantly remember).

Overall, the two candidates offer very different visions for the country’s future. Miley sharply criticizes China and Russia, opposes Argentina’s entry into BRICS, wants to dollarize his country’s economy and close the Central Bank, and legalize the trade in human organs.

Sergio Massa is a centrist. He positions himself as a defender of the general welfare of the state and the regional bloc MERCOSUR (the common market of the countries of South America, uniting Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay). However, the yoke of “failure to stabilize the economy” hangs around his neck.

“I’m leaning towards Miley. The money does not go to public works or to putting food on the table of pensioners or workers who earn pennies. They go into the pockets of politicians,” said 79-year-old Buenos Aires resident Raquel Pampa in a conversation with Reuters. She added that she was “tired of corruption by mainstream politicians.”

But Massa has won over some voters with his criticism of Miley’s “chainsaw” economic plan, which he says could impact social benefits and raise transport prices, energy bills and health care, which are currently subsidized by the state.

“I vote for Sergio Massa because there are two models being discussed now, and it is his model that actually guarantees my survival,” admitted 51-year-old media worker Fernando Pedernera. He also criticized candidate Miley for defending Argentina’s former military dictatorship.

Politicians in other South American states were also divided. The left sided with Massa, the right side with Miley.

It is noted that neither Massa nor Miley advances to the second round with a strong mandate. Massa received almost 37% of the votes, and his opponent – 30%. The latter has won the support of a key conservative bloc, which could propel him to impressive results.

But Massa still has solid political experience on his side. He is considered a person capable of negotiating with influential trade unions, companies and investors in the country, as well as overcoming political differences.

Overcoming differences is very important. The new Congress will be highly fragmented, with no single bloc having a majority. This means that the winner will have to enlist the support of other factions in order to push through any legislation.

This would likely stall more radical reforms and force Massa or Miley to exercise moderation. Influential regional governors are also split between the Peronists and the main conservative coalition, and none are aligned with Miley.

Wilson Center Latin American Program Director Benjamin Gedan also recalled that a divided electorate increases the likelihood of social unrest. He added that Argentina could be in for a “wild ride” if the new president fails to quickly fix the situation: “For now, Argentines are keeping their powder dry, clinging to the faint hope that the next government will find a solution to the country’s deep problems. This patience won’t last long, no matter who wins on Sunday.”