Are people the second oil and gas? With the world on a string

The parameters of the state budget of the Russian Federation for 2023 are calculated from an average oil price of $70 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance reports that from December 15, 2022 to January 14, 2023, the price of Russian Urals oil dropped to $46 per barrel.

In 2011-2014, the average price was $106.

Experts believe that if prices for Urals fall below $45, the situation with the Russian budget will become critical. She is very difficult as it is.

January 17, President Putin at a meeting with government members via videoconference announced:

“Our expenses have increased. Moreover, our spending increased at a higher rate, more noticeable, and by a quarter (instead of the planned 23.7 trillion. — S. B.), and exceeded 31 trillion rubles. As a result, the federal budget deficit amounted to 3.3 trillion rubles.”

A budget deficit is an excess of spending over income.

Difficulty with gas. According to Gazprom, in 2022, the company’s production fell by 20%, exports – by 45.5%.

Gold sales also fell by half.

The 2023 budget has now been passed with a predetermined deficit of $2.9 trillion. But if the current situation in the oil and gas market continues, then… Vladislav Inozemtsev, doctor of economics, director of the Center for Post-Industrial Society Studies, fears that the deficit could increase to 5 trillion rubles.

It is clear that the government raises taxes and fees from the population, from enterprises and organizations. However, it is one and the same. Enterprises and organizations compensate for the growth of taxes and fees by increasing prices for products and services. Ultimately, the population will pay for everything.

For example, before the new year, a government decree came into force on the introduction of a customs duty of 35% of the customs value on goods, “the country of origin of which are states and territories that take measures that violate economic interests Russian Federation“.

The list, in particular, includes: shampoos, hair products, tooth brushing and shaving, deodorants, antiperspirants, products for aromatizing and deodorizing indoor air, detergents and cleaning products.

Of course, importers will pay the state duty at the new rates. And, accordingly, prices will increase by 35%. For goods used by all 145 million Russians, starting from the diaper age.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade tried to reassure: “These are products for which there are domestic analogues that are not inferior in quality and assortment.” However, we know what happens in such cases. Domestic producers of “analogues” will also raise prices, as happened with food products after the ban on their import from the countries of the “collective West”.

In the past year, tariffs for housing and communal services were raised twice – in July and December. Total – by 13%. And housing and communal services are used, again, by 145 million residents, 64 million households.

Housing and communal services is not “manager of a house is a man’s friend”, as some people recall with comic tenderness the phrase from the famous Soviet film “The Diamond Arm”. Housing and Public Utilities is the Ministry of Construction and Housing and Communal Services of the Russian Federation. The share of fixed assets in housing and communal services is more than 26% of the total volume of fixed assets of the economy. Accordingly, and cash flow.

As for the oil companies, the so-called damper has been operating since 2019. This is a broad concept, in the most general sense meaning “depreciation”. In this case, compensation, amortization of price fluctuations.

In 2019, the state budget (you and me) paid 282.2 billion rubles to oil companies for a damper.

In 2020 – 356.6 billion.

In 2021 – 674.5 billion rubles.

In 2022, the Russian budget increased payments to oil companies for the fuel damper by 3.2 times – up to 2.166 trillion rubles.

Russia’s spending budget in 2022, as pointed out by President Putin, was 31 trillion rubles. This means that 7% of the budget went to help oil companies.

The aphorism “People are the second oil” in its original version had a completely different meaning than it does now.

“We are fully aware that Russia is rich not only in hydrocarbon resources. People are our “second oil”, which in the context of the formation of the knowledge economy will soon take a well-deserved first place in its importance,” declared in 2009 at one of the solemn events, the then First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov. “In the knowledge economy, Russians are a key resource, and human capital needs to be invested in.”

It was assumed that we would become a country of unique scientific achievements, high technologies, we would sell licenses, produce and export what the modern world cannot do without – machine tools and equipment, ultra-modern cars, aircraft, computers, communications equipment and much more. So far this has not happened, and we have to manage with available means. As it has long been said, with the world on a string …

Sergei Baimukhametov.