Apartments in Moscow rose in price for the first time in 14 months

The results of June on the secondary housing market in Moscow puzzled the experts a little. Rosreestr registered in the capital almost 15.8 thousand. sales contracts. This is 10% more than in May (14.3 thousand), and 89% more than in June 2022, when only 8.3 thousand purchase and sale transactions were made.

According to the analysts interviewed by MK, four factors formed the anomalous activity. First, fear has affected: in the conditions of economic instability, many people are looking for a proven and understandable asset for saving money. And the metropolitan “squares” during the previous economic crises have repeatedly proved the status of a safe haven.

Secondly, activity was stimulated by pent-up demand. According to Ruslan Syrtsov, Managing Director of Metrium, clients who postponed the purchase of housing during the pandemic and at the beginning of the SVO are returning to the secondary housing market. Now, against the backdrop of a certain stabilization of the situation, they decided to complete the deal.

Thirdly, the real estate market has finally noticed that the ruble has weakened by about 30% over the past six months. At the beginning of summer, the owners of foreign currency savings were in a hurry to take profits from the growth in the value of their savings and converted them into Moscow apartments.

Fourth, the volume of supply has been declining for the third month in a row. If in April 48.8 thousand ready-made objects were sold in Moscow, then in June it was already 46.2 thousand, said Ekaterina Berezhnova, chief analyst at Miel Group.

As a result of the growing imbalance between supply and demand, the average exposure period was reduced from three months to one, and prices rose for the first time in the last 14 months. “In June, average prices for Moscow apartments increased by 1% (see table),” Berezhnova said. According to her, in price competition, the cost per square meter of housing in the secondary market lags behind the primary market (excluding premium and elite segments) by an average of 10-15%. True, this trend is not equally represented in different districts and districts of Moscow: there are locations where the difference between the exposition of the secondary housing and the showcase of new buildings is really stunning, and there are also those where the differences are not very noticeable.

According to the Miel Group of Companies, the average price of apartments sold on the secondary market of Moscow (within the old boundaries) at the beginning of summer amounted to 15.5 million rubles. The average check for a one-room apartment was 10.1 million rubles, for a two-room apartment – 13.5 million rubles, for a three-room apartment – 22.9 million rubles.

According to Pavel Lutsenko, general director of the World of Apartments portal, in Moscow as a whole (together with New Moscow) a “square” of a secondary building costs 300,917 rubles, in the Novomoskovsk administrative district – 230,876 rubles, in the Troitsky Autonomous District – 215,982 rubles, and in the Moscow region – 146,443 rubles. There is a sluggish price dynamics. For the second quarter, for example, in Moscow as a whole, the “square” rose by 1%, in New Moscow – by 0.5%, and in the Moscow region fell by 0.6%.

Traditionally, expensive housing is sold in the center of Moscow, in elite houses prices can reach up to 1.5 million per square meter. m and above. The cheapest apartments within the Moscow Ring Road are offered in Chertanovo South (249,755 rubles per 1 sq. m.), Kapotnya (254,090 rubles), Biryulyovo Zapadnoye (257,651 rubles), Chertanovo Central (263,872 rubles), Veshnyaki (263,976 rubles), Printers (271,401 rubles).

In the Moscow region, the most expensive “squares” are sold in the satellite cities of the capital: in Reutov (206,943 rubles / sq. M), Krasnogorsk (200,841 rubles), Dolgoprudny (196,064 rubles) and Khimki (195,701 rubles). On the edge of the region in the east, you can find apartments priced at 80-100 rubles. for “square”. “Demand is for those apartments whose owners set adequate prices and are ready to make at least small discounts. Ceteris paribus, people are interested in relatively new houses or those located near the metro,” Lutsenko emphasized.

“Housing buyers have begun to look at apartments in the Moscow region more actively, the main reason is the improvement of transport accessibility,” said Evgenia Koikelova, a real estate expert at the Etazhi company in Moscow. – One-room apartments are still the most popular. More and more buyers are seeking to buy apartments in the “stop and live” format with a good repair, often with furniture and household appliances, so such apartments are sold faster.

The request of buyers for a secondary housing, completely ready for living, was noticed by private investors. Today they are actively buying apartments in unsatisfactory condition at a discount, making repairs in a short time and selling them at a yield of 20-25%.

According to Lutsenko, if the limits for issuing preferential mortgages in the primary market run out (they may end as early as September-October. – Ed.), Demand will move to the secondary, and prices will not fall on average. So far, the situation is as follows: discounts of 5-10% are given for old housing, and it becomes cheaper. “The new secondary housing – yesterday’s new buildings, bought at high prices, are moving to the regular market for them, thereby raising the average bar. These two vectors are balanced, and it turns out that the average prices stand still, making slight fluctuations,” the expert noted.

Undoubtedly, the recent decision of the Central Bank to raise the key rate by 100 basis points, to 8.5 percent per annum, will undoubtedly affect the secondary housing market, Yevgenia Koikelova noted. In her opinion, any imbalance in terms of the availability of mortgage lending can change the existing trends in the market. “Now the secondary housing market is catching up with the stagnating prices in the primary market, this restores the balance and competition disturbed due to preferential mortgage programs, which is positive for the market,” the analyst added. – Much will also depend on geopolitics, which often causes outbursts of emotions. As long as the situation on the market is stable and we do not expect any price distortions on it in the medium term, rather, these will be near-zero price fluctuations.”

Oleg Repchenko, head of the Real Estate Market Indicators AC, believes that prices may resume downward movement at the height of the holiday season. Not necessarily in the offer, perhaps by increasing the amount of discounts. In general, according to his forecast, the cost of housing in the medium term should return to the level of early 2020, where it was before the inflation of the price bubble.