Anxious moods have increased among Russians, but calm ones dominate

On Friday, FOM and VTsIOM traditionally published data from their regular surveys conducted last week. It follows from them that the most significant event for Russians during this period was the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall. It did not affect their assessments of the Russian authorities (these indicators, according to both pollsters, remained virtually unchanged), but, apparently, led to an increase in respondents’ anxiety. Calm sentiments still dominate over anxious ones, but the gap between them is 5 percentage points, which is less than in previous measurements this year. However, according to experts, now the surge in anxiety is not so strong (last year there were even higher ones); This figure is expected to decline again in the near future.

On Friday, FOM and VTsIOM published the results of their weekly research. Let us remind you that pollsters publish data with a delay of a week. According to FOM data, the most significant event for Russians over the past two weeks was the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall on March 22. In the latest survey, conducted March 29-31, it was named by 71% of respondents. In second place with a result of 11% was Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine. The previous week (according to the survey of March 22–25), the terrorist attack was also in first place with results of 34%, SVO was in second with 21%.

“A terrorist attack, of course. This is the main event, and everyone was discussing it,” FOM cites selected responses from respondents. Survey participants described the terrorist attack as “terrible”; mentioned that “terrorists were shown” on television.

However, the incident did not have a serious impact on the government’s ratings. According to the FOM, 82% of Russians believe that Vladimir Putin is doing a good job in his post. This is 2 percentage points lower than the result of the previous measurement, but corresponds to the average estimate for recent months. The level of trust in Vladimir Putin is also 82%. The work of the government is positively assessed by 59% of Russians, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin – 57%. These indicators, in general, also correspond to the usual assessments of respondents in recent times. United Russia’s rating over the past week has increased by 2 percentage points and amounted to 54%. VTsIOM gives a similar picture. According to his measurements carried out from March 25 to 31, the activities of the Russian President are approved by 78.3%, the Prime Minister – 53.9%, the Government – 56.3%. 81.8% trust Vladimir Putin, 64% trust Mikhail Mishustin. United Russia’s rating, according to VTsIOM, is 42.6%.

However, in one of the sections of its survey, FOM still records a change in the assessments and sentiments of Russians. Polster traditionally measures their anxiety levels by asking them how they describe the mood in their environment as anxious or calm. Since the beginning of 2024, calm has dominated over anxiety – the gap in estimates on average exceeded 10 percentage points. It reached its greatest value following the results of the survey on March 8–10. At that time, 58% of Russians described the mood in their environment as calm, and 34% as anxious. At the end of last week, the gap between calmness and anxiety was only 5 percentage points: 49% of respondents characterized their mood as calm, 44% as anxious. The longest period when anxiety prevailed among Russians over calm came in the fall of 2022, when the Russian authorities announced partial mobilization. Then the balance in favor of alarming sentiments remained until March 2023.

Experts believe that the current situation does not threaten a similar trend. Political scientist Alexei Makarkin explains that a surge of anxiety always occurs when something terrible happens. But now, in his estimation, it is not very big. Moreover, the expert predicts that the effect will gradually fade away: “People return to their business, psychological defense mechanisms are triggered, and the so-called displacement of negativity occurs.” Mr. Makarkin notes some growth in anti-migrant sentiment. According to him, anxiety is unlikely to affect the ratings of the authorities: the effect of rallying around the flag continues to operate, people believe that in conditions of confrontation, criticizing the authorities means taking the side of the enemy. “Even if there are some complaints, they are not articulated and are postponed until “after the victory.” And this is not a national feature – if we remember the effect of major terrorist attacks in the West, then, for example, the events of September 11 in the United States led to an unprecedented increase in the rating of President George W. Bush,” sums up Alexey Makarkin. Political scientist Alexander Asafov also believes that anxiety is always associated with challenges that have an emotional component. Fear of uncertainty becomes an important factor. The tragedy in Crocus City Hall, numerous signals about the detention of new terrorist groups, statements about planned new attacks on the Crimean Bridge – all these factors lead to an increase in anxiety, the expert believes, but so far this growth has not reached the peak values ​​​​of last year, during which There were several such leaps.

Andrey Vinokurov, Anastasia Kornya