Analysts surveyed by the Central Bank almost doubled the forecast for the dynamics of Russia’s GDP

According to the results of 2023, Russia’s GDP will grow by 1.5%, economists who took part in the Central Bank’s macroeconomic survey expect it to be 0.7 p.p. higher than expected in June. At the same time, their inflation forecast for 2023-2024 deteriorated somewhat reported on the regulator’s website.

The forecast for GDP for the next two years has not changed, the Central Bank notes: in 2024, the country’s economy will grow, according to experts, by 1.4%, and in 2025 by 1.5%. The change in GDP in 2025 to 2021 will be +2.3% compared to +1.6% in the previous survey.

The median inflation forecast at the same time increased from 5.5% in June to 5.7% in July. Next year, analysts expect inflation at 4.3% (in June they expected 4%). The target value of 4% is expected to be reached in 2025. For the ruble, analysts also worsened their forecast, now expecting an average of 81.8 rubles/$ (after 76.9/$ a month earlier) this year. In 2024 and 2025, experts expect that the dollar will cost an average of 85 rubles.

According to the Central Bank, analysts raised the forecast trajectory of the key rate by 0.4-0.7 percentage points, expecting it to be at the level of 7.9% per annum this year, 7.7% in 2024 and 6.6% – in 2025 The estimate of the budget deficit remained at 2.7% of GDP this year and 1% of GDP in 2025, but worsened slightly (from 1.7% to 1.8% of GDP) in 2024.

The survey was conducted on July 7-11, and its results are the median of forecasts of 25 economists from various organizations. If the respondent gave his expectations in the form of an interval, then its middle was taken into account for the calculation.

The Ministry of Economy estimated the growth of Russian GDP in May at 5.4% against the background of the low base effect of last year. Seasonally adjusted, the figure rose 1.4% after rising 0.1% in April. A month earlier, GDP increased by 3.4% (the ministry adjusted the estimate from 3.3%), in March, February and January it decreased by 0.7%, 2.6% and 2.7% respectively. According to the Ministry of Economics, for five months since the beginning of the year, the growth amounted to 0.6%. In the first quarter of 2023, the economy contracted by 1.8% compared to the same period last year.

The Central Bank earlier improved the forecast for the dynamics of Russian GDP: the regulator now expects economic growth of 0.5-2% in 2023, although back in February it expected a decline. At SPIEF, Chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina at SPIEF spokethat the Russian economy at the end of this year will show growth, most likely closer to the upper level of the forecast of the Central Bank. At the same time, next year it will completely return to pre-crisis values, she noted.