Analysts of “Valdai” called the innovations of missile defense: beam weapons and “dust defense”

The report is titled “Shoot Down Can’t Miss: The Evolution of Missile Defense and Its Implications for Arms Control.” The scientists’ conclusions are disappointing: the rapid development of missile defense is becoming a destabilizing factor in the international situation and may even lead to a crisis in relations between nuclear powers.

Recall that the United States took the first step on this path by withdrawing unilaterally from the 1972 Soviet-American ABM Treaty in 2002. Since then, the United States has been rapidly developing missile defense technologies, improving its structure, relying on unified combat control loops and the integration of sensory and fire capabilities of various types.

In many ways, it was the US withdrawal from the ABM Treaty and the deployment of elements of its global missile defense outside the United States, near the borders with the Russian Federation, that became the main motive for the development of hypersonic weapons by Russia, in particular, the Avangard hypersonic glide warhead.

The command, control, combat control and communications system (C2BMC) being created in the United States provides for the integration of missile defense systems for various purposes (Patriot, Aegis, THAAD and GMD). Its elements are located, in particular, in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, the Mediterranean, Alaska, California, Greenland, Great Britain and Norway.

The main goal of the USA – to achieve “pre-launch interception” of Russian intercontinental missiles. There is a development of shock anti-space weapons and “non-kinetic” means – cyber weapons and electronic warfare.

Several priorities have been named in the development of missile defense systems: improving the efficiency of detecting and tracking targets, including before launch; increase in the simultaneous number of tracked targets; recognition of real warheads in a cloud of decoys; detection and tracking of cruise missiles; detection and tracking of hypersonic weapons.

Analysts give a forecast: anti-satellite systems capable of “blinding” the missile defense orbital echelon will be created. They believe that the key problem of strategic stability associated with missile defense systems is the impossibility of unambiguously classifying them as defensive or offensive weapons.

Thus, the owner of a “thin” missile defense, analysts believe, may have “an organic interest in developing the potential for a counterforce strike, which involves pre-emptively inflicting the maximum possible damage to enemy strategic forces before they are used.”

Experts identified several key breakthrough areas for improving missile defense systems that can be implemented in the medium term. This, in particular, is a directed energy weapon. – laser and microwave, as well as “dust” means of combat.

The advantages of laser weapons are the low cost of interception, practically unlimited ammunition, and the rapid destruction of the target. But there are limitations: it only works within the line of sight; has a limited range due to beam scattering in the atmosphere; sensitive to weather conditions and does not cope well with a group missile attack.

The authors of the report predict that the first mass missile defense laser will be focused on countering cruise missiles and strategic drones. This is explained, in particular, by the capacities of the devices being created.

The maximum power of the prototype missile defense laser, created in the USA, does not exceed 130 kW. This is only enough to deal with cruise missiles and blind the enemy’s sensors. Interception of ballistic missiles is possible with a power of 500 kW, but only in the accelerating section of the trajectory and from a short distance.

A laser is being developed to combat drones, but already fiber or alkaline with diode pumping. This is where the second problem of laser systems arises – their weight and dimensions. Due to their large mass and dimensions, they can only be placed on ground platforms or warships.

Among other promising developments – electromagnetic (microwave) means of destroying intercontinental missiles. They can be pulsed or continuous action. The former are capable of short-term powerful impact to disable the on-board electronics of the rocket. The second is for jamming.

Disadvantages of electromagnetic weapons – vulnerability to enemy electronic warfare, increased power consumption, short range, as well as dependence on the state of the atmosphere.

There are also “non-kinetic” means of disabling the electronics of missiles, sensors, electronic intelligence equipment, as well as communication and combat control systems.

One of the channels of influence during the launch of missiles and after it – suppression of satellite communications and signals of global positioning systems. At the same time, offensive electromagnetic weapons can be used for “non-kinetic pre-launch interception”.

In the United States, for example, there is a project for an advanced high-powered microwave anti-missile (CHAMP). It provided for the creation of a special type of load for the AGM86C cruise missile, causing damage to electronics. The US Air Force received at least 20 sets of such weapons.

In July 2022, it was announced the start of development of the next generation of such systems, designed to be installed on the AGM-158B JASSM-ER46 cruise missile platform. Such carriers can be secretly launched into the areas of deployment of launchers of missile systems from a great distance. In the first hours of the war, they are able to suppress the enemy’s automated communications and command and control systems, analysts say.

Loitering ammunition can also be created – kamikaze drones with a similar combat load on board. On duty in a positional area, they can either wait for an external command to use, or independently determine the target. – launched missile, launcher or radar – and use electromagnetic weapons on it.

Another exotic remedy for hypersonic missiles – “dust cloud” “The idea is to throw a wide cloud of artificially created particulate matter with certain characteristics ahead of it along the trajectory of a hypersonic object, which can remain in the atmosphere for a sufficiently long time,” the report says.

According to the authors, a high speed (close to the first space speed) of the impact leads to damage to the ablative skin of a hypersonic missile or a gliding warhead, which in the middle section of the trajectory (where such “dust” is supposed to be used) can lead to loss of controllability and even destruction due to for unacceptable thermomechanical influences.

According to analysts, an application for missile defense needs can be implemented quite quickly if the “dust cloud” scheme against a hypersonic target itself shows its operational viability.

Assessing the prospects for the development of missile defense systems in the world, analysts propose to prepare in Russia the “Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the field of aerospace defense.”