Analyst Drozdov: “The Russians who bought dollars in October made a big mistake”

In mid-autumn, a rush demand for foreign currency was recorded

The Central Bank published data on currency purchases by Russians in October. They caused some confusion even among seasoned experts. Last month, our fellow citizens purchased currencies (mainly dollars and euros) worth 121 billion rubles. For comparison: in September, when the ruble exchange rate was more or less stable, Russians bought “Americans” and “Europeans” in the amount of 40.7 billion rubles – that is, three times less. MK asked the expert: did fellow citizens choose the best time to create a foreign currency stash?

Many financial analysts explain the October rush around the dollar and euro with the approaching New Year holidays – when those who are poorer try to buy cheaper red caviar for the New Year’s table. And those who are richer buy currency in order to later tell their friends that they met the chimes not in a snow-covered forest near Moscow, but somewhere in Dubai. This is our tradition, they say, and nothing can be done about it.

True, financial analyst Sergei Drozdov believes that those citizens who have a surplus of rubles were able to fully buy currency last summer, when the dollar fell to 55-60 rubles. “It is unlikely that they would have started buying currency this October, when the dollar was at almost the hundred-ruble mark,” the expert suggested.

Let us recall that on October 10, the dollar was traded on the stock exchange at 101 rubles, and the euro was given at 107. Then the American currency began to gradually become cheaper. In the last ten days of the month, the dollar dropped to 93 and kopecks. At the same time, as the Central Bank of the Russian Federation notes, it was in the second half of October that massive purchases of foreign money occurred. The Central Bank calls the behavior of Russians in this situation countercyclical. Simply put, it’s wrong and illogical.

– What caused the currency rush among the population last month? – we ask Sergei Drozdov.

“Honestly, I expected different results,” the analyst replied. “Recently, statistics have shown that Russians have learned to act rationally.” When the dollar rises, they sell it; when it falls, they buy it. But when in the first ten days of October the dollar exchange rate approached the 102 ruble mark, under the prophecies of various “couch experts” that the ruble would fall to 120 and even 150 for an “American”, people could not stand it and ran to exchange offices.

It happens. Perhaps they drew an analogy with February-March 2022, when our ruble really collapsed to 120 per dollar. What can I say? You need to listen to specialists in the foreign exchange market, not word of mouth.

– Will this trend towards creating foreign currency reserves continue for people in November? Or did the people come to their senses and come to their senses?

– Statistics will show.

– What can you advise: buy dollars or wait?

– We need to wait and see where this path leads. And then make a decision. I wouldn’t recommend rushing. The Central Bank and monetary authorities took a number of measures to strengthen the ruble exchange rate. I mean the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters and an increase in the key rate to 15%. These factors will remain in effect at least until next spring, before the country’s presidential elections.

Therefore, in the near future, the trend towards strengthening of the ruble will continue. Until spring, we will definitely be able to buy a dollar at 92 rubles minus. And if the situation goes in a more positive direction, then for a little over 80 rubles. The state needs to fight inflation.

In general, there is no need to rush to invest in foreign currency. Today it is more advisable to put money on deposit in a bank, this is more accurate.

– In general, in the current conditions, is it easy to buy currency? These are not hot cakes, you need to know where and when to go…

– I don’t buy it myself, including for the reasons I already mentioned: unfavorable exchange rate. But, as far as I know, there are no problems with the purchase. In many banks, the dollar and euro exchange rates are almost the same as on the stock exchange.