“Almost the perfect spectacle for every geopolitics buff”

Warsaw is ready to provide a transport corridor for Ukrainian grain. However, the supplied food must be sent to African countries, said Polish President Andrzej Duda. At the same time, he emphasized that he considers the decision to ban Ukrainian grain on the domestic market correct. The restrictions came into force back in May in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia following complaints from local farmers about cheaper products from Ukraine. The embargo expired in September, but a number of countries decided to unilaterally extend it. Kiev plans to challenge this ban through the WTO. Kommersant FM columnist Mikhail Gurevich wondered how a food war could affect the overall situation in the region.

The public conflict between Warsaw and Kyiv over the import of Ukrainian grain is an almost ideal spectacle for every lover of geopolitics. There is so much to see here: military allies are quarreling over economic quotas, rhetoric devaluing each other is heard from the high rostrum of the UN, issues of grain transportation are being transformed into a refusal to supply arms. And above all this is the confusion of the common overseas ally, which seems to be trying to try on the warring sides, but at the same time is itself in an uncomfortable situation due to the upcoming presidential elections in 2024. A sort of tangle of problems and contradictions, which, even if unraveled, will still leave behind a negative aftertaste.

The consensus of experts on the issue is that the conflict will fade away very soon. On October 15, parliamentary elections will be held in Poland, and they are the reason for everything that is happening. 12% of Poles are employed in agriculture, and cheap Ukrainian grain affects their income. At the same time, rural residents are one of the most active and at the same time conservative groups of voters. In the current campaign, both the ruling Law and Justice party and the opposition are fighting for their votes – for example, right-wing Eurosceptics with anti-Ukrainian rhetoric from the Confederation of Freedom and Independence.

However, if verbal battles with Ukraine help the ruling party retain power, then next year we can expect a repetition of this political technology, but on a much larger scale.

Elections to the European Parliament will take place in early June and, judging by sociology, the views of continental voters have recently shifted noticeably towards the right-wing conservative side. This means that the topics of Ukrainian refugees and financing of Ukraine are almost guaranteed to become the subject of heated pre-election discussions. Moreover, as we have become accustomed to over the past year and a half, Kyiv politicians do not mince words and will respond to any claims threefold.

However, the pan-European electoral show will begin only in March-April 2024. And returning to the current scandal, one cannot help but note another interesting point: the feuds between Warsaw and Kiev are an excellent opportunity for Russian propaganda. But nothing like that happens. In Moscow, it seems, they don’t really understand which way to approach this candy. How to blame some, but not praise others? Which opponent should you choose as a positive hero? Too many complex introductions.

As a result, Moscow, rather, savors the details and predicts that this is just the first call. They say that the interests of different groups of voters will sooner or later lead to a large-scale split and collapse of Euro-Atlantic unity. And in fact, this forecast is not without foundation.

Another thing is that for some reason only residents of Western countries are interested in income and the level of benefits. And Russians are people with nerves of steel, for whom economic problems are not a reason to stop watching the quarrel between two Slavic neighbors with optimism frozen on their lips.

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