After the fall in the ruble exchange rate, it was predicted to rise due to the elections

On the Moscow Exchange, the dollar ended the week above 97.5 rubles. For a euro on the site they gave just over 103 rubles. The situation with the currency is so alarming to the “powers that be” that the authorities have already begun to discuss the possibilities of currency regulation according to the “Chinese scenario”, when the country simultaneously has two exchange rates for the national currency – for domestic consumption and for foreign trade. Experts told MK why the ruble is weakening, despite all the efforts of the authorities.

A little over two weeks ago, at the Eastern Economic Forum, First Deputy Head of the Ministry of Economic Development Ilya Torosov said that the department has a plan to return the dollar to the corridor of 70 to 80 rubles. These words of a representative of the government’s financial block were recalled to the head of this department, Maxim Reshetnikov, on Thursday, September 28, during the Moscow Financial Forum.

The minister was not at a loss and drew the attention of those gathered to the need for new methods of currency control, emphasizing that it is necessary to build a more complex system and “try new instruments” of regulation so that Russia does not have to pay a higher rate for openness.

In his opinion, one should take a closer look at the Chinese model, where there is a certain “membrane” between the internal and external exchange rates, which makes the yuan relatively stable.

This statement caused a strong discussion and from the “high tribunes” loud statements have been coming one after another for the second day. First, the head of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, pointed out the risks of multiple exchange rates and the negative consequences for the financial sector when dividing the foreign exchange market and using such “membranes”. According to her, strengthening foreign exchange controls is also not a way to combat a weak ruble, since it only creates unnecessary barriers that business will still learn to bypass, and you need to think, first of all, about its interests.

The head of the Ministry of Finance, Anton Siluanov, expressed solidarity with the position of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and also did not support the use of the mentioned “membrane” and the creation of a double exchange rate according to the Chinese model. The next day, state bankers also shared their opinions.

The biggest noise was caused by the statements of Andrei Kostin, who emphasized that it would not be possible to save the ruble from falling by introducing a double exchange rate. He expressed concern that with the introduction of the “membrane” proposed by the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, there will be two exchange rates – one dollar will be valued at 150 rubles, and the second – 250.

German Gref was no less ardent in his assessment: he called Reshetnikov’s proposal a “step back” in regulation. In his opinion, this will mean a lack of convertibility, which will result in huge damage to the economy.

In general, the position of the head of the Ministry of Economic Development did not find support. Against the backdrop of these statements, the ruble continued to lose ground on the Moscow Exchange on Friday. Experts pointed out several reasons for this behavior of the domestic currency.

According to Artem Tuzov, director of the corporate finance department of IVA Partners, the old methods of maintaining the ruble exchange rate through increasing the key rate of the Central Bank and selling foreign currency earnings by exporters have stopped working, and the new authorities are still just groping.

Export earnings, which used to be mainly in dollars and euros, now come in a dozen different currencies, of which the dollar and euro are no longer dominant. At the same time, imports continue to be made primarily in dollars and euros. Thus, a situation arises in the market when demand exceeds supply and the exchange rate of these unfriendly currencies rises.

However, as soon as the dollar reaches the level of 100 rubles, both the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation begin to apply more stringent control methods. From this we can conclude that for now the level of up to 100 rubles per dollar is a serious point of resistance for the national currency. However, to stabilize the situation in the near future, the authorities may introduce soft methods of currency regulation, the analyst is sure.

“The root of the current problems is the fundamental transition of the Russian economy to trading in national currencies,” Arthur Meinhard, head of the analytical department for global markets at Fontvielle Investment Company, continues the topic. “According to the Ministry of Economic Development, the share of friendly currencies in the structure of imports and exports of the Russian Federation is 69-72%, of which about 35-40% is the Russian ruble.”

It turns out that when exporting energy resources, Russian companies receive Russian rubles back in payment in the proportion of 35% – ruble; 65% is the currency of friendly and unfriendly countries. Moreover, the share of the ruble in such transactions is growing, since the ruble is not a world currency like the US dollar, euro, yuan and others.

It is easier for recipients of Russian energy resources to pay us in rubles, since the ability to use them is extremely limited. It is unlikely that a foreign holder of the Russian ruble will be able to pay with it for the supply of goods from the countries of South America, Africa and other countries.

The only way to find a use for the Russian ruble is to pay for the delivery of goods from Russia. It turns out that the foreign exchange income of Russian export companies is declining, and they have historically been donors in the foreign exchange market of the Russian Federation. Despite the fact that they sell about 85% of their foreign exchange earnings on the domestic market, the actual flow of foreign currency into the market has decreased by a third.

Taking into account the growing demand for foreign currency from importers and the narrowing supply of foreign currency on the Russian market due to the Russian ruble squeezing it out of export earnings, the devaluation of the ruble will continue against the backdrop of an imbalance of supply and demand in the market.

“I assume that at the end of October the US dollar will again return to the 100 ruble mark, not only against the backdrop of problems in the structure of imports and exports of the Russian Federation, but also against the backdrop of a strengthening of the dollar against the basket of foreign currencies,” the expert said. “As for the euro, I believe that the negative in the ruble will exceed the negative in the euro area, which will allow the “European” to consolidate at around 104.5 rubles.”

“I believe that the ruble will soon trade in the range of 90-100 rubles per dollar, and this is normal, including because this suits the Russian budget and everyone responsible for filling it,” noted a member of the supervisory board of the Guild of Financial analysts and risk managers Alexander Razuvaev. — Well, then Russia will face presidential elections, an increase in the key rate and an increase in oil prices. All this will provide an incentive to strengthen the national currency.”

The Bloomberg agency gave a forecast that the ruble could strengthen to 80 rubles per US dollar in the near future, and the expert called it quite realistic; moreover, the domestic currency could be even stronger as elections are coming. In addition, poor market conditions and the “oil ceiling” are a thing of the past, which is beneficial for the ruble, Razuvaev recalled.