African Union, US and France support military invasion of Niger

The African Union, along with France and the United States, supported the desire of the Economic Union of West Africa (ECOWAS, which includes 15 states of the region) to launch a military invasion of Niger in order to restore the power of deposed President Mohamed Bazum. “The African Union is also concerned about the deteriorating conditions in President Bazum’s detention and calls on the international community to join all efforts to rescue him,” the organization’s X (formerly Twitter) page said in a statement on August 11.

The day before, following an emergency meeting, the Chiefs of Military Staff of the ECOWAS member countries instructed to bring the reserve forces of their armies to full readiness “in all their aspects with the task of restoring constitutional order in Niger.” The meeting was attended by the leaders of Côte d’Ivoire, Benin and Senegal, as well as the Minister for Foreign Affairs in the government of Bazum Hassoumi Massaoudou.

On the same day, the President of Côte d’Ivoire, Alassane Ouattara, said that the chiefs of staff of the organization plan to hold several more meetings to finalize the issues, “but they have the consent of the conference of heads of state to start the operation as soon as possible,” Agence France-Presse reported. According to him, Côte d’Ivoire, as part of a possible invasion of Niger, is ready to provide a battalion of 850 to 1,100 people to the collective forces. The leaders of other states have not yet disclosed details about the size of their groups.

On the territory of Niger, the military from Western states is still stationed: over 250 Italian, about 1,500 French and about 1,000 American soldiers and officers. On August 4, Niamey announced the denunciation of military agreements with France and demanded the withdrawal of French troops from the country within 30 days. But Paris refused to obey the demands of the rebellious authorities.

According to the annual bulletin The Military Balance, the ground forces of Niger in 2023 totaled 33,000 people.

Immediately after the ECOWAS summit, the French Foreign Ministry approved the decision of the African states. And US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken announced that Washington appreciates “ECOWAS’s determination to explore all options for a peaceful resolution of the crisis” and will hold the junta responsible for President Bazum’s security. Earlier, the Associated Press (AP), citing US military officials familiar with the situation, reported that representatives of the Niger junta warned US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland about the threat to the life of the suspended head of state during her trip to the African republic on August 7. Official authorities later confirmed this information to the agency.

This is not the first ECOWAS meeting triggered by the situation around Niger. At an emergency July 30 summit in the Nigerian capital of Abuja, members of the organization threatened to use military force against the republic if the junta did not release the ousted president and restore him to power within a week. The next day, the foreign ministers of the bloc issued a joint statement, according to which the authorities of Nigeria, Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire expressed their readiness to send their armed forces to Niger. And on August 4, the army chiefs of staff agreed on a plan for the proposed military intervention.

But a day later, the Nigerian parliament did not approve the initiative of the authorities to use their armed forces against a neighboring state. At the same time, lawmakers called on the country’s executive branch to “encourage and strengthen political and diplomatic capabilities in order to break the deadlock.”

A few hours before the expiration of the ultimatum on August 8, Niamey closed its airspace to the countries of the region, with the exception of Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Algeria, Libya and Chad: these countries expressed solidarity with Niger in one way or another. Moreover, Mali and Burkina Faso, where power was also replaced by a military coup, after which their membership in ECOWAS was suspended, announced that the alleged military intervention against a neighboring state would be tantamount to a declaration of war on these countries as well.

In addition to the threat of intervention, the ECOWAS countries also closed air and land borders to Niger citizens, as well as freezing the country’s assets in a regional bank and halting energy operations. These measures have led to a deterioration in the economic situation in the country, where about 4 million people live on humanitarian aid. According to the AP, due to sanctions, the UN cannot deliver goods with food and medicine to Niger, and about 30 trucks are stuck at the border in Benin.

The probability of launching a military operation against Niger by the forces of some ECOWAS states is quite high, Nikolai Shcherbakov, a leading researcher at the Institute of Asian and African Countries at Moscow State University, believes. “Now observers assess the likelihood of a military escalation as 50/50. The ECOWAS operation can have the military power of various branches of the armed forces approximately three times greater than the capabilities of the combined forces of Niger and the countries that promised their support, ”the expert noted.

Niger is a large country with a well-trained and battle-tested army, which complicates the task for the invasion forces, continues Africanist Alexei Tselunov. “The results of the campaign are not yet predetermined: much will depend on the coherence of the actions of the ECOWAS military contingent, on whether Nigeria will provide its troops and whether the Niger military will be able to prevent the blocking of the airport,” the expert said.

On the other hand, Tselunov continues, the success of the operation will still depend on the reaction of the local opposition to the junta that seized power. The expert noted that the ousted President Bazum still has a broad base of support in the country, and in the eyes of a significant part of the local and regional public, the coup looks illegitimate. “What happened seems to be a spontaneous conspiracy of senior officers and leaders of various security agencies who expected a series of resignations in the near future,” the expert said. “Before the July events, there were no critical security problems in Niger that would discredit the president, and the situation with terrorist activity in the country has even improved in the last year.”

At the same time, according to Shcherbakov, it is difficult to assess the consolidation of the Niger society as a whole. Sociological research has never been conducted in the country, almost half of the country’s population is under 15 years old, and the vast majority of local residents are engaged in agriculture, are uneducated and often illiterate. “The mood of the population is not formed in relation to a possible operation or events of a similar level, but will depend on what other countries offer and in what volumes,” the expert concluded.