Africa began its mediation mission in the Ukrainian conflict

On June 17, the President of the Republic of South Africa (SAR), Cyril Ramaphosa, following the visit of a delegation of seven African countries (including four presidents) to Kyiv, presented the “10 points” of the African “peace plan”. Ramaphosa outlined them at a press conference. The speech on Twitter was broadcast by the press service of the President of South Africa. The trip to Ukraine took place on June 16, and on June 17 Ramaphosa will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“This is a truly historic peace-seeking mission,” the South African leader said in a statement before leaving for St. Petersburg. “It is built around ten key elements. First, we are here to listen to both [стороны конфликта]. <...> And we do this with deep respect for the people of Ukraine, but also with recognition of the proposals that are being offered today as a “peace formula”. We are also going to listen to President Putin, with respect to how he sees the path to peace.”

According to Ramaphosa, the African mission takes into account the proposals of other countries. The main points of the African peace plan are as follows:

Five leaders of African countries – Ramaphosa of South Africa, Hakainde Hichilema of Zambia, Azali Assoumani of the Comoros (chairing the African Union this year), as well as President of Senegal Maki Sal and Prime Minister of Egypt Mustafa Madbouly arrived in Kiev on the morning of June 16. The second stage of their trip is their arrival in St. Petersburg.

Initially, it was assumed that the African delegation would also include the Presidents of the Congo, Denis Sassou Nguesso and Uganda, Yoweri Museveni. But the latter refused to participate, and Sassou Nguesso contracted the coronavirus. Instead of themselves, they sent special representatives – Florent Ntsiba and Ruhakan Rugunda, Zelensky’s press service said.

How noted in the message of the press service of the President of South Africa, the mission to Kyiv and St. Petersburg, which is in full swing started a week ago, attempts to counter-offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, “brings an African perspective and a call for a peace process.” “It is precisely during the aggravation of the conflict that the search for peace must be accelerated. This peace initiative should be seen as an addition to those put forward by other parties. The strength of this mission is that African leaders will engage with both sides,” the press service quoted Ramaphosa as saying.

On June 16, Russian Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov confirmed that the Kremlin had seen “messages” with specific measures of the African leaders’ “peace plan” on the Ukrainian conflict, but it had not yet been officially sent to Moscow. Prior to that, on June 15, Reuters reported on a number of theses allegedly contained in the African peace plan. Among them, according to the agency, is the withdrawal of Russian tactical nuclear weapons from Belarus, which Putin himself spoke about at the SPIEF.

Commenting on the start of the African peace mission, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on the sidelines SPIEF-2023, that the Russian leader “remains open to any contacts in order to discuss options for the Ukrainian problem.” “Therefore, any possible ideas, sets of ideas that are aimed at resolving this problem and, accordingly, at the end of this conflict, they are supported [Владимиром] Putin. Putin is leading these conversations, he welcomes the upcoming contacts with African leaders,” Peskov said.

Commented on the initiative of South Africa and other parties. The official representative of the diplomatic service of the European Union, Peter Stano, said that Brussels would not support the African peace plan if it contained a provision on the need to “freeze” the conflict at the current positions of the warring parties.

The details of the African peace plan were not officially released as of the first day of the mission. On May 23, Magvenia said that the mission would be lucky with a plan that did not involve the withdrawal of Russian troops to start negotiations. On June 15, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said that Ramaphosa, on his way to Kyiv, told him about the efforts that the African Peace Initiative proposes to make to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, but did not provide details.

Guterres also expressed hope that the delegation of African leaders will be able to agree on the extension of the agreement on the export of Ukrainian grain, the next term of which ends on July 17. On June 15, Putin, at a meeting with military officers in the Kremlin, said that Russia is considering options for withdrawing from the agreements, since, according to him, Russian requirements are not being met, and the “grain corridor” route is used by Ukraine to launch sea drones to attack ships of the Black Sea Fleet.

This is not the first time the African mission is carrying out a project for a peaceful settlement on the part of the “global South”, which is not involved in the confrontation and sanctions pressure on Russia. In February, the Chinese Foreign Ministry published its 12 points, which include respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, international law; abandoning the “Cold War mentality”; ceasefire; start of negotiations; settlement of the humanitarian crisis; protection of civilians and prisoners of war; NPP safety support; preventing the use of nuclear weapons, etc.

In April, Brazilian President Inacio Lula da Silva proposed creating an analogue of the G20 as a platform for negotiations on Ukraine. And in early June, Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, on behalf of Jakarta, proposed a plan to achieve peace in Ukraine, including a ceasefire, fixing the current geographical positions of the parties, creating a demilitarized zone between them and holding referendums under the auspices of the UN on “disputed” territories, in his opinion. .

The African group shows the resilience of its intention to act as an intermediary through the implementation of “shuttle diplomacy,” says Natalia Piskunova, associate professor at the Faculty of World Politics at Moscow State University. A group of African peacekeepers has good and long-term ties with both sides: both Russia and Ukraine have long been trading partners of African countries, so reconciliation of the parties is extremely beneficial for Africans, the expert recalls. Unlike China, Africa has neither the potential nor the task of putting pressure on the parties, and the neutrality of a third party in the conflict is the key to its possible settlement, Piskunova said.

The group of African countries is obviously leaning towards the proposal of “freezing” the conflict, as this would most clearly reflect its neutral and uninvolved position, says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs magazine. But against the backdrop of a sharp increase in the activity of hostilities and, in general, the unpreparedness of the warring parties for real negotiations, this is more of an image reaction in order for the African part of the “global South” to once again declare its ambitions to participate in solving global problems, Lukyanov concludes.