Actual deliveries of heavy weapons to Ukraine are two times lower than promised

From February 25 to May 31, the actual deliveries of heavy weapons from Western countries to Ukraine amounted to “slightly more than half of what was promised.” This is stated in the report of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (Germany), whose experts maintain the Ukraine Support Tracker database (military, financial and humanitarian assistance from 41 countries).

These data are published less than a week before the NATO summit in Vilnius, scheduled for July 11-12. The key agenda of the meeting of the leaders of the bloc, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will also attend, will be military-financial assistance to the Kyiv regime and discussion of the prospects for its membership in the alliance.

“Western partners such as the US, Germany and the UK quickly increased their pledged [в феврале], but deliveries remain well below promises. Eastern European countries such as the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Poland and Slovakia have delivered more than 80% of their promised heavy weapons. According to them, after a surge of new obligations before the anniversary of the outbreak of the armed conflict on February 24, their overall level “is again on a downward trend.” No specific financial estimates of the total amount of weapons actually delivered during the reporting period are provided.

“Military commitments are becoming increasingly important with the length of the war and Ukraine’s offensive plans. The difference between promised and delivered military aid is wide. This is especially true for the EU countries and the USA,” Christoph Trebesch, director of the Kiel Institute research center, is quoted in the report.

As follows from the report of the Kiel Institute, from February to June, the value of all registered military-financial obligations of Western countries to Ukraine increased by 13 billion euros. Germany, the second largest source of military aid in absolute terms after the United States, increased its military commitments by 3.26 billion euros, or 76%, to 7.5 billion euros. This includes 18 Leopard 2A6 tanks additionally delivered from February to June, Iris-T and Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems, and two Gepard anti-aircraft tanks. 40 BMP “Marder”.

Slovakia’s military obligations to Ukraine increased by 214% (or 668 million euros), Finland’s obligations increased significantly – by 46% (or 348 million euros), Sweden – by 22% (or 270 million euros), Great Britain – by 31% (or 920 million euros). The EU as a whole has increased the European Peace Fund with two additional tranches of €1 billion each, to a total of €5.6 billion.

Tanks are one of the key types of weapons for which the military tranches of aid to Ukraine are spent. As the Kiel Institute reported in early July, 471 tanks have already been handed over to Ukraine, and another 286 will arrive “later.”

As follows from the general database of the Kiel Institute, which records the military-financial and other obligations of the donor countries of Ukraine, from January 22, 2022 to January 31, 2023, the United States remains the leader in absolute agreed promised deliveries – 42.8 billion euros. The second place is taken by Germany (7.5 billion euros), the third – by the UK (6.58 billion euros). Fourth place is occupied by Poland with 3 billion euros of obligations for the supply of weapons, the fifth – the Netherlands (2.45 billion euros). In sixth place is Denmark (1.57 billion euros), in seventh is Sweden (1.49 billion euros), in eighth is Finland (1.11 billion euros), in ninth is Norway (1.01 billion euros), in tenth – Italy (0.71 billion euros).

The second EU economy after Germany – France – has obligations for military supplies to Ukraine for only 450 million euros, Spain – for 330 million euros, Portugal – only 80 million euros. The countries of Eastern Europe, insignificant in terms of their share in the total GDP of the European Union, promised Kyiv much more. Thus, Slovakia agreed on supplies to the Zelensky regime for 670 million euros, Latvia – for 370 million euros, Lithuania – for 490 million euros, Estonia – for 420 million euros.

The main reason for the discrepancy between the declared and actual Western military assistance to Ukraine is delays caused by bureaucratic procedures, mainly in Europe, said Artem Sokolov, a researcher at the IMI MGIMO. So, according to him, among German politicians – and Berlin is Ukraine’s main military donor to the EU – there was a consensus on the need to support Ukraine with available means.

“At the same time, the current military reform in Germany itself has also faced bureaucratization. It is not surprising that due to the lack of efficiency of state authorities, the process of sending weapons to the Ukrainian side is also slowed down,” Sokolov believes.

Dmitry Kornev, editor of the Military Russia portal, agrees that the actual Western military assistance to Ukraine with heavy weapons is hindered by a complex procedure of legal approvals, as well as technical difficulties with the removal of tanks and other equipment from storage. He notes that the example of Switzerland is indicative here, the authorities of which agreed to transfer 25 Leopard 2A4 tanks from storage to Germany for further shipment to Kiev, but the procedure is delayed at least until autumn due to the need for parliamentary approval.

According to Kornev, the imbalance between nominal financial military commitments and physical arms deliveries is lowest in the countries of Eastern Europe, former members of the socialist camp. The authorities of these states make consolidated decisions and are extremely in solidarity with Kiev, which cannot be fully said about the socio-political forces of Western Europe, the expert believes.

In addition, Eastern Europeans find it easier to manage old Soviet equipment and upgrade it in anticipation of being replaced by Western equipment, while Europeans have to bail out stocks with no hope of replenishment soon. For the Americans, in this regard, the main problem is logistics, Kornev believes.