Accidents went east – Kommersant

The introduction of international economic sanctions against Russia has led to an increase in accidents – this is stated in the report of the Scientific Center for Road Safety (NTs BDD) of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia. First of all, the eastern regions of the country suffered, where a significant increase in accidents was recorded – up to almost 80% on a number of highways. The roads turned out to be unprepared for the invasion of trucks, which now, having left the western direction, are massively moving towards Asian countries. Interior Ministry scientists also see the risks of further deterioration of the situation in the increase in the number of used cars (including right-hand drive) among Russians and in the accelerated aging of the fleet due to a shortage of new cars.

Sanctions and border closures led in 2022 to a redistribution of traffic flows from the western direction to the southeast – Turkey, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, China. “The infrastructure turned out to be unprepared for such changes, as a result of which the main transport arteries began to operate in overload mode, the mileage of vehicles increased,” the report of the National Traffic Safety Center of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia says.

So, on the federal highway A-320 (Omsk-border with Kazakhstan), the accident rate increased in 2022 by 76%, on R-297 Amur (Chita-Khabarovsk) – by 25%, A-321 (Barnaul-border with Kazakhstan ) – by 20.8%, on the R-256 “Chuysky Trakt” (Novosibirsk-border with Mongolia) – by 9%. There is also an increase in accidents involving foreign drivers in federal districts bordering Asian countries: in the Far East (+29.6%), Urals (+27.8%), Siberian (+15.1%). “We are recording a twofold increase in cargo traffic in these directions,” confirms Anna Matveeva, DPD Operations Director in Russia. On the highways leading to the western borders, the number of accidents, on the contrary, decreased: on the M-9 – by 23.8%, on the M-10 – by 23%, on the R-21 (St. Petersburg-Norway) – by 17 .6%.

The fleet, according to the report, grew by only 0.5% over the year, while before it grew by 1.4–1.9% annually. “The slowdown is a consequence of a change in the geopolitical situation, due to which the automotive industry has faced a number of new challenges — a drop in demand for vehicles, a stop and suspension of a number of production facilities, as well as difficulties in the supply of significant component materials,” the authors of the report say. According to Rosstat, we recall that auto production in the Russian Federation in 2022 decreased by 44.7%. The car market at the same time, according to the estimates of the Association of European Businesses, collapsed by 58.8%. “Given the current situation, the prospects for updating the fleet of vehicles cause concern,” the NTs BDD noted. They emphasized that now 25.6% (13 million) of cars, 41.1% (2.7 million) of trucks, 22.9% (0.2 million) of buses and 80.6% (1.9 million ) motorcycles have been operated on the territory of the Russian Federation for more than 15 years. The older the car, the higher the severity of the consequences in an accident with its participation, they remind in the center. They fear that the increase in the service life of machines, as well as the purchase of “alternative, lower quality” spare parts (new ones have risen in price by 25-70%) may affect safety. As for new cars, some of them in 2022 were produced without airbags, anti-lock brakes and the ERA-GLONASS system.

Scientists of the Ministry of Internal Affairs also draw attention to the increase in 72% of used cars imported from eastern countries (mainly Japanese brands), and most of them are right-hand drive. According to the police, such cars are more dangerous in operation than left-hand drive ones: “A further increase in their import may adversely affect the accident rate, given that the greatest popularity of such vehicles is traditionally observed in the eastern part of the country, where the accident situation has already become more complicated due to for the reorientation of traffic flows.

“The conditions of economic turbulence, the restructuring of social and transport chains, as well as the persistence of the problems faced by the transport system in 2022, will continue to have a negative impact on the state of traffic safety,” the specialists of the NC Road Traffic Safety summarize.

“The fleet aging trend can be corrected only by the growth of sales of new cars,” comments Sergey Udalov from Avtostat. “This year we forecast total sales at the level of 780 thousand under the base scenario. With such sales, the fleet will not increase, and the average age will increase.” According to the AEB, we recall that the drop in sales in March 2023 slowed to 10.6% from 63% in February. Recently, many Chinese brands have come to Russia, but their cars usually cost from 2 million rubles, which the vast majority of Russians cannot afford, adds Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine. “In the most massive price segment – 1-2 million rubles – a complete failure,” says the expert. “There is no full-fledged replacement for Solaris and Rio yet.”

As for the congested road network in the east, experts warned about this problem at the beginning of 2022, Mikhail Blinkin, scientific director of the Institute of Transport Economics at the Higher School of Economics, told Kommersant. But in the road industry, he says, it’s impossible to redirect funding quickly. If a budget is allocated, road capacity can be somewhat improved by “local measures,” Mr. Blinkin explains: add a lane, change traffic organization, expand the “bottleneck”. “But by and large, roads everywhere need to be converted to four-lane,” he believes.

In 2022, the government, we recall, approved a road construction plan until 2027 with funding of 13 trillion rubles – among other things, there are facilities that should improve transport links in the eastern part of Russia. It is planned, in particular, to extend the M-12 highway to Yekaterinburg (work is already underway). Among the roads where the traffic police revealed an increased accident rate, the plan mentions R-256 (reconstruction of 15.9 km), R-297 (reconstruction of 3 km) and R-254 (reconstruction of 7 km).

Bringing the highways in the eastern direction to the norm has already been discussed in the government, Yevgeny Moskvichev, head of the State Duma Committee on Transport, told Kommersant, promising that in May he would once again raise the problem in the Ministry of Transport: “This issue needs to be addressed, because the flow of transport there is no longer will decrease, and Belarusians will also now travel towards China, Mongolia, Azerbaijan and other countries.”

Ivan Buranov