A window for Prigozhin: options for Wagner PMCs in Belarus and Africa announced

Having completed the rebellious attack on Moscow, the Wagner PMC decided to return to the field camps, and from there the fighters could go somewhere else, but where exactly is still unknown. The media voiced options with Belarus or Africa. “Moskovsky Komsomolets” learned from political scientists Vadim Gigin and Sergei Markov that the mercenaries could wait further.

While Prigozhin and his attempted rebellion are being discussed around the world, the possible redeployment of his units to Belarus has “raised the ears” of the Baltic countries and NATO, who were frightened at the thought of the presence of thousands of well-trained and heavily armed fighters next to Europe. For example, the leader of the Belarusian opposition, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, said that such a redeployment poses a threat to the security of Poland, Latvia and Lithuania.

According to the well-known Belarusian historian and political scientist Vadim Giginlooking ahead, wondering where the Wagner will end up, is premature (now there are rumors that allegedly for PMCs they began to build field camps in Belarus, but there is no official confirmation of this).

“The specifics of resolving this crisis lies in the fact that information is received in a very dosed manner,” the expert says. – And the main sources of information are the press services of the two presidents – Russia and Belarus. Only they can be trusted, since a lot of fakes and speculations are already walking around.

Dmitry Peskov said that Yevgeny Prigozhin would move to Belarus, but there was no talk of any unit moving with him. PMC “Wagner” proposed to enter into contracts with the Ministry of Defense, join the armed forces to continue the fight at the front.

It is difficult to say what status Prigozhin will have in Belarus, but with regard to any PMCs, it should be noted: in Belarus, as expected, a vertical system of national security management has been built.

There is a commander-in-chief – the President of the Republic of Belarus, there are power structures, ministries and departments, and in this case we do not have and are not envisaged any kind of double loyalty. For example, a Russian-Belarusian military group is deployed on the territory of the country in accordance with the documents signed at the level of allied states and the protocol for using the group. The same goes for tactical nuclear weapons.

Therefore, the status of Prigozhin, if it comes to this, should be included in the system that has been built in the Republic of Belarus for many years. The model of Alexander Lukashenko, the model of Belarusian development is based on manageability, consistency and the vertical of power”

I repeat once again: let’s not rush to the conclusion that the PMC will be located on the territory of Belarus. If something like this happens, it will certainly not be in the status that Wagner had.

Alexander Lukashenko will not allow any formations, territories, separate groups on the territory of Belarus that do not fit into the national system. This is incompatible with his character as a person and politician and with the model of our management and development …

According to the leading Belarusian expert on defense and military-industrial complex Alexandra Alesinand, Yevgeny Prigozhin will not be in Belarus for a long time, from there he will immediately be sent to Africa. In an interview with the Belarusian media, Alesin suggested that Alexander Lukashenko wants to maintain the security of Belarusian production in Africa with the help of PMC fighters. “Belarus is a window for Prigozhin to return to where he feels best and has proven himself. Obviously, he will go to Africa, outside of Belarus, because Lukashenka does not tolerate self-sustaining armed formations,” Alesin said.

About whether a Belarusian-African future is possible for PMCs, he told Moskovsky Komsomolets political scientist Sergei Markov.

“As for the future of Wagner PMC, I do not think that it will be liquidated, but vice versa. Instead of one PMC, we will see two,” Markov believes, “The first will operate on the basis of the Wagner that fights on the Ukrainian front and has covered itself with glory in Bakhmut and other areas. This “Wagner” will be gradually reassigned to the Ministry of Defense, and the leaders of this “Wagner” will be those people whom the “Wagnerites” respect. For example, General Surovikin.

This PMC will be more disciplined, built into the general ranks, and will lose the ability to act politically independently, but will retain the glory and specific style of warfare that helped to acquire this glory.

The second one can be created by Prigogine on the basis of those structures that now continue to work in some African countries. Perhaps the experience of PMC “Wagner” as a platform will be used in Belarus.

I think that Alexander Lukashenko would be happy to use the power of the “Wagnerites” to train the Belarusian army. If Lukashenka and Prigozhin created a joint global company, signed dozens of contracts with different governments of the world, it would be very good for them.

After all, Lukashenka is also cool, he suppressed the coup organized by the Polish special services, and this image can be very useful to all the presidents of African and Asian countries, who always understand that there is some threat of military coups against them.”

Read the material “What will happen next with Wagner PMC: three scenarios named”