A virologist dispelled fears about the start of a new coronavirus pandemic: unnecessary panic

The numbers of sick people named by the head of Rospotrebnadzor, scientists believe, do not mean anything

The world remains in a difficult epidemic situation, which could pose a threat to Russia, the head of Rospotrebnadzor, Anna Popova, said last week.

“The weekly registration now across the country is 35-36 thousand cases. This is twice as much as a month ago. She added that the most infected people are in Moscow, the Moscow region and St. Petersburg.

From these regions the wave will spread throughout the country. All variants of “omicron” prevail. The situation can be assessed as the beginning of an epidemic.

We talked with a Russian doctor, doctor of medical sciences, specialist in epidemiology and medical statistics, Igor Gundarov. To what extent can we begin to fear a new wave of coronavirus and other infections multiplying one after another?

– Does Rospotrebnadzor characterize what is happening now as the beginning of an epidemic?

– On the question of the very concept of epidemic. Here it is necessary to distinguish between two approaches: everyday and scientific. For convenience, in Soviet times they usually said: “an epidemic has begun,” but in reality it was just another outbreak. In a scientific approach, to operate in such terms, it was necessary to compare the number of new cases of the disease with a basic standard level. People get sick every year, there are waves… Popova has modern standards.

To be precise and not create unnecessary panic, I think it should be explained not the way she did it, citing some numbers, but something like this: today so many people got sick, this is below the norm, or corresponds to the norm, or exceeds the norm , and in those calculations that Rospotrebnadzor has: it shows the average number of cases plus the “delta”, the spread. So, I think it is wrong to talk about the beginning of the epidemic without comparing the announced figures with the normative ones.

– As far as I remember, 30-36 thousand new cases per week are now being registered across the country. Is this a lot or a little?

– Let’s take statistics from pre-pandemic years, I looked at them specifically. Let’s take ORZ…

– Or ARVI?

– It is more correct to say acute respiratory disease (acute respiratory disease), it includes not only viral, but also bacterial diseases. So, in 2017-2018, there were 31 million prescribed acute respiratory infections per year, 2.5 million per month, 83 thousand per day. That is, about 580 thousand per week. Compare with the numbers that Popova names when she says that an epidemic is beginning?

– I would say that this clearly does not resemble an epidemic. Well, how can experts say this? Why scare people?

– This is a question for those who, as they say, “drive the blizzard.” Why not tell people that there is no need to worry because the level of disease is low and nothing serious is happening?

– At the same time, the head of Rospotrebnadzor basically reassures Russians, saying that there is no need to get vaccinated against COVID-19 now, the risks of complications significant for the population are small, that everything is fine. Compared to her statements two years ago, this is simply heaven and earth.

– I also see obvious contradictions in these words. On the one hand, we are supposedly starting an epidemic, but on the other, vaccinations are not needed. I would like to know who needs to keep people in a constant state of panic and why.

Who needs it, so that people’s psychological state is such that they are tossed from side to side, today they are afraid of one thing, tomorrow of another, so that complete confusion reigns in their heads. As a rule, as a result, they lose critical thinking. And this leads to panic and irrational actions. The situation with coronavirus today is not a reason for unnecessary concern.