A record is predicted for municipal elections – Picture of the Day – Kommersant

The Civil Society Development Foundation (FORGO) on Friday held a round table on the upcoming municipal elections in Moscow. Experts expect an extremely high turnout due to remote electronic voting (DEV) at the level of 30%. But this will not help the opposition. The victory of the pro-government candidates from United Russia and the public association My District is practically guaranteed: the patriotic consensus and the high level of satisfaction with the state of affairs in Moscow guarantee them a serious advantage. At the same time, the opponents of the Moscow authorities, according to the participants of the round table, demotivated their electorate through constant attacks on the DEG. However, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation does not agree with this interpretation and accuses the Moscow authorities of administrative pressure.

The political landscape in Moscow is stable, said Konstantin Kostin, Chairman of the Board of the Russian Geographical Society, during round table September 2: Approximately 50% are pro-government electorate, 25% are opposition supporters, and another 25% of voters adjoin one of the groups situationally. With a patriotic consensus and fairly good social well-being, the latter group is likely to “largely” join the supporters of the authorities, Mr. Kostin believes.

The factor of remote electronic voting (DEV) also works in favor of United Russia. Its application can provide a unique electoral phenomenon, when the turnout in the municipal elections will be higher than the turnout in the elections to the Moscow City Duma, the expert predicts. Recall that in 2019 in the voting for the composition of the capital’s parliament took part 21.8% of voters, and in the municipal elections of 2017, the turnout was 14.7%.

This year, the opportunity to vote online should attract those voters who are usually too lazy to get to the polling station.

This is evidenced by the results of an initiative study by the Social Marketing Institute (INSOMAR), held on 28–29 August. It was attended by 2 thousand respondents interviewed by phone. The statistical error of the study does not exceed 2%. According to Viktor Poturemsky, Director of Political Analysis at INSOMAR, voter awareness of the upcoming elections (the date of voting is known to 70% of respondents), a significant level of ownership of digital services and the “Million Prizes” campaign, which can attract even non-politicized electorate, work for a high turnout. According to the sociologist, in August 55% of Muscovites declared their participation in the elections.

According to the study, 65% of Muscovites are aware of the DEG format and allow themselves to participate in online voting in the future. Taken together, this gives grounds for INSOMAR experts to predict a real turnout in the upcoming municipal elections at the level of 28-32%.

At the same time, voters planning to take part in voting remotely, according to Mr. Poturemsky, prefer pro-government candidates: up to 77% of voters who chose the DEG can vote for them (respondents were asked whether they allow voting for candidates of United Russia and “My area”).

The structure of online voting will be homogeneous and have a pronounced pro-government character, sociologists say.

According to the survey, 74% of respondents are satisfied with the state of affairs in Moscow, 78% approve of the work of the city authorities on the development of Moscow.

“In remote electronic voting, candidates from United Russia will receive more than 50%. And in the city it will be a homogeneous picture. In polling stations for ordinary voting, taking into account the efforts made by a number of political forces, this figure will range from 13% to 30%,” political scientist Alexander Asafov supported his colleague.

The opposition failed the election campaign, explained Alexei Chesnakov, director of the Center for Current Politics. According to him, during the campaign, she was unable to offer a positive agenda for municipalities and focus on specific problems of the districts. In addition, the opposition’s constant attacks on the DEG have driven it into a trap, the political scientist believes: “The voter has a mess in his head when the elections are first delegitimized, and then they are called to come to them.”

However, representatives of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, who are considered the main opponents of electronic voting, do not agree with these theses. “We do not call on our voters to abandon the DEG, but only explain that this method of voting does not guarantee that the result will be taken into account,” objected Sergei Obukhov, secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, State Duma deputy. In his opinion, the main problem of the opposition in these elections is not criticism of the DEG, but administrative pressure on the opposition: out of 1,000 candidates nominated in the capital’s municipalities, about 200 people were removed from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation alone, he calculated.

Anastasia Kornya