A quarter of Russians decided to buy an apartment in the next five years: financiers sounded the alarm

Experts say whether this threatens the real estate market with a mortgage crisis

Almost a quarter of Russians (23%) intend to buy housing over the next five years, according to the results of a survey conducted by VTsIOM. It is curious that the share of such citizens has remained virtually unchanged since the “peaceful” year of 2018, where there were no sanctions or geopolitical risks. This may be due to the fact that, according to the same study, almost every second person (52% of respondents) rents their home and wants to finally solve the “housing problem.” MK found out from experts whether such pent-up demand from the population threatens the Russian real estate market with a mortgage crisis.

There are several reasons why almost every fourth adult Russian wants to buy their own home. In addition to the direct acute shortage of “square meters”, there is also a “crisis factor”: real estate is a good investment, and in conditions of economic uncertainty it also provides an opportunity to increase savings. “You can buy an apartment and thereby save your savings,” says investment adviser Yulia Kuznetsova. “The price of apartments is rising faster than inflation, and thus, by investing in housing, you can preserve the purchasing power of money.” Having bought an apartment at the start of construction, after its completion this property can be sold with a markup of up to 50% in 3-4 years, because that is how long the process of constructing residential properties and putting them into operation takes. Many single people believe that buying an apartment is not only a good chance to save money, but also an opportunity to earn additional income by renting out real estate, so buying another home, even with the help of a mortgage, remains one of the “popular” forms of investment. reminded the expert.

However, the basis for the demand for “square meters” is still created by families with children and they need apartments for living. “After the last change in the rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, everyone began to understand that cheap money is running out, and the cost of real estate in the general format has only been growing since 2019,” Viktor Zubik, founder of the management company Smarent, continues the conversation. “At the same time, we have one of the lowest ratios of living space per person, and for now buying your own apartment is a cherished goal and dream for citizens.”

Opinions about whether it is possible for a “bubble” to emerge in the Russian real estate market and a subsequent crisis, since it is recorded how strong the demand for “square meters” is, and also various benefits apply – family mortgage, mortgage with state support, mortgage for IT specialists, Far Eastern mortgage, rural, etc. – separated. Industry representatives believe there are no threats. “A situation where even all respondents decide to purchase housing in one year is extremely unlikely,” says Roman Rodiontsev, director of the project consulting department at Est-a-Tet. — It is worth paying attention to the fact that using the example of the Moscow region, we see how the risk of market overstocking was adjusted within the third quarter. The volume of supply in the capital decreased by 5%, in the Moscow region – by 7%, in New Moscow remained the same, despite the fact that the level of demand was at its peak over the past two years. Therefore, the situation, even if suddenly there are a lot of buyers on the market, will not lead to a “bubble”: rather, it will contribute to a supply shortage.”

In the financier community, however, they are slowly starting to sound the alarm and call on the regulator to cool the real estate market. Thus, according to the head of the analytical department of BKF Bank Maxim Osadchy, expectations of an increase in the preferential rate are spurring demand for preferential mortgages at the current interest rate, and thereby also leading to an increase in government subsidies. For banks and developers, preferential mortgages are manna from heaven. And it is not surprising that the powerful banking and construction lobby is slowing down the winding down of this extremely dangerous mechanism for the Russian economy. As a result, the preferential mortgage market is overheated. One of the reasons for this overheating was the increase in investment demand for real estate against the background of the depreciation of the ruble – “people’s investors” are looking for a “safe haven”, a replacement for foreign currency deposits that have lost their attractiveness. In addition, preferential mortgages distort the housing market and cannibalize market mortgages. “Housing prices in the primary market have increased much more than in the secondary market,” the expert explained. — The reason for the discrepancy is simple: preferential mortgages apply only to the “primary” mortgage. It turns out that housing, turning from “primary” to “secondary”, immediately after purchase depreciates by tens of percent.” Regulators don’t like all this and they are gradually beginning to tighten the requirements for preferential programs. Thus, in mid-September, the government increased the minimum down payment for mortgage programs with state support from 15% to 20% and reduced the amount of subsidies to banks for financing such mortgages by 0.5%. But, given the number of Russians who want to solve their “housing problem” in the next five years, the risk of market overheating remains.

As for the cost of housing, experts say that in the near future it will comply with market laws. “Prices today are growing systematically: they depend on the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the increase in the stage of construction readiness of the project, as well as supply chains and fluctuations in the foreign exchange market,” says Natalya Shichanina, sales director at Sense. “We don’t predict any significant changes in the near future.”