“A new center of power is emerging in the Caucasus” – Kommersant FM

There is a chance to make peace. Ilham Aliyev stated this in his speech following the completion of the anti-terrorist operation in Nagorno-Karabakh. According to the President of Azerbaijan, this opportunity arose, among other things, thanks to the constructive position of Yerevan. Meanwhile, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin welcomed the cessation of hostilities. Kommersant FM political commentator Dmitry Drize does not rule out that a peace treaty will be signed as early as 2023.

The 30 Years’ War ended in two days. Or is it not? Logically, it will be possible to say “yes” only after the parties sign a peace treaty. Until this happens, the confrontation continues. The administration of President Ilham Aliyev claims that the above document has been 70% agreed upon.

At the same time, there is no official war. There is an anti-terrorist operation of Azerbaijan on its territory, which, according to the statement of the head of state, has been successfully completed. In principle, it doesn’t matter what it’s called. In fact, Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan.

What’s next? Aliyev praised the leadership of Armenia for their political competence – that is, they did not escalate the situation and did not interfere. This can be called a manifestation of superiority, the condescension of the winner towards the loser. Nikol Pashinyan, meanwhile, spoke on the phone with Vladimir Putin. The parties discussed the prospects for a settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenian-Russian relations. The President of the Russian Federation welcomed the agreements concluded on the cessation of hostilities.

Translated into simple Russian, this means that Armenia remains an ally of Russia, at least now it is not leaving the CSTO and other integration structures. In return, it receives the necessary political and, possibly, financial support from Moscow.

Nikol Pashinyan retains the post of Prime Minister. Yes, of course, this is not a Kremlin question. However, the problem is that a change of government at the moment is absolutely disadvantageous for the Russian Federation, primarily because Pashinyan, for all his shortcomings, is predictable in his own way – he recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan and, most likely, will sign a peace treaty. And that’s it, the question is closed. One less headache.

What happens next is basically unimportant. The Russian Federation believes that Armenia will get away from it. And a change of power means chaos and the risk of a big fire in the South Caucasus, which is unclear how it could end. At the same time, it must be admitted that the West is not able to fully influence the situation – it has no time for that. Azerbaijan’s operation was stopped after a conversation between President Ilham Aliyev and Secretary of State Antony Blinken. And the exercises with Armenia continue, so America saved face in its own way.

As for Russia’s influence in the South and other Caucasus, we have to admit: a new center of power is emerging in the region – Azerbaijan with the support of Turkey. Investments will go into this area, including Western ones. Armenia may well take part in this celebration of the revival of the Caucasus, as well as Russia.

The only question is who will set the rules of the game and, accordingly, receive the main dividends – both political and economic. It seems that the answer should be sought in Baku or Ankara. As for the CSTO, the organization, one way or another, will remain for some time. There is no point in guessing what will happen next. The main thing is to avoid sudden steps.

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