A duel without a king – Newspaper Kommersant No. 60 (7505) of 04/07/2023

The match for the World Chess Champion title opens in Astana today. For Russia, it looks like a great chance to regain, after a break of more than a decade and a half, a very expensive title that became vacant after Norwegian Magnus Carlsen resigned it last year. The Russian grandmaster Ian Nepomniachtchi, who already has experience of participating in the championship match and has been in excellent shape for several seasons, looks, if you believe the simplest observations, a rather clear favorite in the confrontation with someone who does not have such experience and has recently been in a form that raised questions , Chinese Ding Liren. The problem is that simple observations can be a tricky trap in this case.

The match for the title of the world chess champion, which will officially open today in Astana, and starts the first of the 14 games provided for by the regulations with classical time control on Sunday, and really tempts to present almost a generous gift to Russia in a terribly difficult for her from the point of view fighting for prestigious international prizes period. This title has been a source of pride for decades, a symbol of domestic excellence in a special sports genre most strongly associated with intellectual potential. Soviet chess player Mikhail Botvinnik first conquered it in 1948, and over the next half century the USSR only once, and then briefly parted with it, when the American genius Robert Fischer soared to the top in 1972. After its rise, only domestic geniuses reigned there: Anatoly Karpov, Garry Kasparov (included in the register of foreign agents), Vladimir Kramnik.

Dominance ended in 2007, when Kramnik fell behind the Indian Viswanathan Anand in the World Chess Federation (FIDE) invented championship tournament in Mexico City. In the next decade and a half, many good chess players matured in Russia, but not one of them matured to such a level as to return her the status of the country’s main chess player. The closest to the title were Sergey Karjakin and Ian Nepomniachtchi, who reached the fights for the title in 2016 and 2021. However, both lost to the Norwegian Magnus Carlsen, who, having taken him away from Anand ten years ago, owned him so tightly that it seemed as if he would never give it back to anyone.

So, the Kazakh chance of Ian Nepomniachtchi looks, of course, compared with the previous chances – Karjakin’s chance and his own, the first of two – not just big, but grandiose. His opponent in the match will not be Magnus Carlsen, who, as if deciding to copy the main details of Fischer’s unique biography, in the summer of 2022, as once an American, unexpectedly gave up the title, citing a lack of motivation, but Ding Liren.

In theory, the clash of grandmasters representing the same generation (a Russian is 32 years old, a Chinese is 30 years old), located in the rating next door, on the second and third lines immediately after Magnus Carlsen, is a clash of approximately equal chess fighters. But anyone who suddenly wants to name Ding Liren as his favorite is definitely at risk of running into accusations of stupid opposition, dropping out of a long line of chess titans, including, for example, Garry Kasparov, who have no doubt that Ian Nepomniachtchi is the favorite here. The question is the scale of its advantages: is it tiny or is it still quite weighty?

All clear. No matter what factor you look at, everywhere the Russian grandmaster has either a plus or a fat plus.

Ian Nepomniachtchi is now experiencing an unconditional career take-off, so long that it is completely different from such a flash that can die out at any moment, as soon as a light breeze blows on it. For several seasons now, he has been playing in such a way that something like a consensus has formed in the chess community: if Magnus Carlsen has a worthy successor, then it’s more correct, perhaps, to not find Nepomniachtchi, no matter how hard you try.

In these few seasons, two candidate tournaments won by the Russian fit in, in each of which he was opposed by seven opponents of the highest class. In the first one, which preceded his match against Carlsen in Dubai and took place in Yekaterinburg, Nepomniachtchi won simply confidently. In the second – last year in Madrid – in the manner of the Terminator, trampling with his heavy foot all those who get in his way. And even the championship fight, although formally it turned into a disaster for Nepomniachtchi and ended ahead of schedule, with a score of 4:0 in favor of Carlsen, for some time confirmed the opinion about the capabilities of the Russian. In the five opening games, he was not inferior to Carlsen, but went downhill after a disappointing defeat in the sixth marathon, which would have knocked anyone off the rhythm.

Ding Liren has no really bright successes in these seasons. Moreover, he ended up in Astana, strictly speaking, by accident, replacing Sergey Karyakin, who was disqualified for publicly supporting the military special operation in Ukraine, in the Madrid G8 and jumping into second place on the flag, which soon turned into a candidate due to Magnus Carlsen’s demarche. In fact, that breakthrough in the Candidates tournament with a “custom” win in the final round against the American Hikaru Nakamura is Ding Liren’s only chess feat in the current decade. And then he remained in the thick shadow of Nepomniachtchi’s triumphal march.

In head-to-head matches in the “classics” Ian Nepomniachtchi’s superiority is almost symbolic – three victorious games against Ding Liren’s two. But fresh collisions are of particular importance. And they also happened in Madrid. In the second round, when Nepomniachtchi had already created a reinforced concrete gap, there was a draw, and in the first round of the tournament, in the English opening, beloved by the Chinese, the Russian literally tore him to pieces with black, all the while pushing, building up pressure, forcing him to make convulsive movements in order to escape from a series of threats. And that game can be considered a perfect illustration of the stylistic difference between Nepomniachtchi and Ding Liren. Describing the virtues of a Russian chess player, renowned English grandmaster and chess author Daniel King recently said that “it’s insanely hard to play against someone who doesn’t make any mistakes at all.” But this is by no means an exhaustive description, because flexibility, the deepest knowledge of openings and a taste for sharp “calculative” positions remain outside the brackets. And Ding Liren formed an image of a player who is more cautious than decisive, preferring to act “from the enemy.” Such a strategy is clearly not the best trump card in a championship match, in which one cannot win without risk.

“Warm-up” before the performance in Kazakhstan, Ian Nepomniachtchi also turned out to be more successful than Ding Liren’s. The Chinese in January actually failed at the super tournament in Wijk aan Zee, the Russian in February almost won the super tournament in Düsseldorf.

Finally, there is an argument that is absolutely impenetrable. The thesis about the invaluable experience of fights for the title with their specific schedule, specific degree of tension has long since become a commonplace. And in any prediction about the Astana match, from a chess legend or an ordinary YouTube reviewer, he is a necessary ingredient that only adds clarity to the picture, which looks so pleasant for Ian Nepomniachtchi, who has this match in his life, no matter how painful its outcome may be, already was. And it seems that the mention of him in the discussion about the alignment should be put an end to.

But in reality, a comma would be much more appropriate, and following seemingly iron arguments, oddly enough, can be tantamount to moving straight into a trap cleverly disguised by time and stereotypes. Let’s say, because, when evaluating Ding Liren, everyone unanimously focuses on his recent seasons, spoiled by the coronavirus pandemic and the severe travel restrictions imposed in his homeland in connection with it, which temporarily deprived the Chinese of international practice and tone, and forget that as for them, in the second half of the decade of the past, he blocked the phenomenal milestone of 2800 rating points that Nepomniachtchi did not submit to, tore up super tournaments, and sometimes he brutally beat Magnus Carlsen himself and often played just in that manner, combining arrogance with restraint, which is quite suitable for championship matches. And also because, uttering a banal phrase about the need for experience in championship matches, no one looks into history. It may not be superfluous, but Emanuel Lasker, Jose Raul Capablanca, Alexander Alekhine, Max Euwe, Mikhail Tal, Tigran Petrosyan, Robert Fischer, Garry Kasparov, Vladimir Kramnik and Magnus Carlsen – ten of the 16 world champions – did not need it. They won championship matches on the first try. Not so this experience, apparently, is priceless.

Alexey Dospekhov