A detachment of the poor crossed the border – Newspaper Kommersant No. 225 (7426) of 05.12.

The official number of the poor in Russia continues to decline – according to Rosstat, in the third quarter, 15.3 million people, or 10.5% of the population, were below the government-defined “poverty limits”. With such dynamics, according to the results of the entire 2022, the poverty level in Russia may return to the indicators of 2012-2013. Its further reduction, however, is in doubt – after the poorest Russians received large amounts of targeted support this year, in 2023 the government may need new tools to help families with low incomes.

The population of the Russian Federation with incomes below the poverty line continued to decline, follows from the information released on Friday Rosstat statistics. If at the end of half a year 18.9 million people, or 13% of the total population, fell into this category, then at the end of nine months – 17.2 million people, or 11.8%. Compared to the three quarters of last year, these figures also decreased – by 0.4 million people and by 0.3 percentage points. The number of poor separately in the third quarter of this year was 15.3 million people, or 10.5% of the population.

Let us explain that to calculate the number and share of the poor in the Russian Federation, Rosstat uses the “poverty line” indicator, approved by the government at the end of 2021. Now it corresponds to the cost of the consumer basket for the fourth quarter of 2020, taking into account accumulated inflation. Based on the results of nine months of 2022, this amount is 13,472 rubles. per person, separately in the third quarter it amounted to 13,688 rubles.

Rosstat noted that two factors could have influenced the reduction in the number of poor Russians – the continued growth in social payments and an increase in wages.

In the third quarter, citizens received 4.35 trillion rubles. in the form of various support measures, which is 243 billion rubles. more than in the second quarter of this year, by 170 billion rubles. more than in the third quarter of last year. In the third quarter, 11.1 trillion rubles were spent on the wages of employees, an increase of 1.1 trillion rubles. more than in the same period in 2021.

With such dynamics in general for 2022, the share of the poor in the Russian Federation may turn out to be lower than it was in 2021. Then this figure fell to 11% of the population, to the lowest value since 2014. In 2022, the proportion of the poor may decline even more, to 10.5-10.7% of the population, thus returning to the level of 2012-2013.

However, the potential of social support measures to further reduce poverty, as Kommersant previously wrote, is already almost exhausted – in 2023 the government may need to think over new tools for families with low incomes (for more details, see “Kommersant” dated September 8). It is unlikely that the growth of labor incomes will significantly contribute to a further reduction in the number of poor people.

Although the unemployment rate continues to be at a historic low (in October – 3.9%), since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of wages, according to Rosstat, has been below the inflation rate by 1.5%.

It should be noted that if the reduction of poverty continues, this may become one of the main achievements of the government in the social sphere in the next few years – against the backdrop of a stable labor market due to institutional factors and a “lull” in healthcare, where there are big changes (after postponing the wage reform work of doctors) is not yet expected. At the same time, it is obvious that further reduction of poverty will become more and more laborious and expensive, since after supporting the poorest, measures will be required to increase the incomes of the already wider sections of the population.

Anastasia Manuylova