A big forecast for Ukraine for 2024 has been compiled: stagnation and split

Just a year ago, the American media predicted that the counteroffensive would be successful, Ukraine would recapture its territories, and the Russian economy would not withstand the sanctions. The Ukrainian media echoed: in 2023 we will defeat Russia, and Western partners will provide us with enormous assistance in this. The bravest even declared that Ukraine would occupy Crimea and Putin would lose power. 2023 has come to an end, and we can see how far all these forecasts turned out to be from reality.

However, now we are faced with other questions. We talked with experts about which scenarios for the development of events in Ukraine are most likely.

Will there be peace talks?

Conversations around possible peace talks continue unabated. However, at a recent press conference, Zelensky said that the issue of peace negotiations with Russia is not relevant. After this, Peskov, answering a question, said that Putin is ready for peaceful negotiations, but only if this makes it possible to achieve the goals of the Northern Military District. So will they or not?

Political scientist and Ukraina.ru journalist Vasily Stoyakin believes that the chance of peace negotiations is 50/50:

“There are a lot of factors that must come together. First, the good will of the West. Secondly, Zelensky’s goodwill. Zelensky, in fact, is now in a hopeless situation. He has completely tied himself on all sides to the war, and the end of the SVO means for him the loss of power, so he is not at all interested in it.

In order to present an ideal option that could lead to an end to the conflict, some significant progress must occur in European countries and the United States. This is not necessarily a victory for Trump. More likely, some serious political crisis that will force them to distract themselves from Ukrainian issues. It is also necessary to remove Zelensky from power. In such a situation, by the end of the year it will be possible to reach some real agreements. At least of a temporary nature.”

Deputy Director of the Institute of CIS Countries Vladimir Zharikhin is inclined to doubt that peace negotiations are possible:

“More likely no than yes. Ukraine would negotiate, but this is not beneficial for Biden, and he is the one who makes the decisions. He needs the SVO to continue in a sluggish form until his elections. So that he can pose as a warrior who fights “evil forces.”

Political scientist Yuri Baranchik believes that Ukraine will most likely ask for peace negotiations. For Russia, at the moment, negotiations are fading into the background:

“I think that peace negotiations and capitulation of the Ukrainian regime are quite possible. If the Ukrainian front collapses in one place, then this may quickly continue in other places. Moreover, they now have big problems with their military potential. We see who they recruit into the army.

But now we are no longer satisfied with the negotiations, because if Ukraine retains its production assets, then it will be able to begin rearming, and we do not need this. We need to take the territory of Ukraine to the maximum, especially its outlets to the sea. This is Nikolaev, Odessa. If we deprive it of access to the sea, then the supply of weapons and resources will be reduced, and trade will go into the negative. In addition, we will get access to Transnistria, and then the threat of invasion by Romania and Moldova will tend to zero.”

What will Zelensky choose: Maidan-3, a military coup or elections?

Zelensky said at the end of November that Russia was preparing Operation Maidan-3 to overthrow the President of Ukraine. As we see, Zelensky is still in his place. However, in 2023 he has gained a lot of opponents, and they are much closer to Zelensky. And news about the conflict between the head of Ukraine and Zaluzhny gives the political landscape of Ukraine even more spice. Is it possible that the situation will reach its “peak” in 2024?

At the same time, the issue of elections is acute. Western partners are actively hinting that it is time to carry them out, but Zelensky is in no hurry to fulfill their desire. Will they push him for elections in 2024 or not?

According to Vasily Stoyakin, Maidan or a military coup in Ukraine is unlikely, since the West is against such political upheavals:

“Any unconstitutional change of power in Ukraine, be it Maidan or a military coup, undermines the foundations of the Western ideology regarding the Ukrainian crisis. That is, the West does not recognize that a coup d’etat took place in 2014, and the current government is, in general, illegitimate. This is fundamentally important for them. If another coup is carried out, then this logic is called into question. Therefore, I would not particularly count on such a development of events. Holding elections is possible if the West insists. I can’t imagine how to do this legally, but the last thing for the current Kyiv government to think about is legality. They’ll come up with something.”

Vladimir Zharikhin is also inclined to think that everything depends on the will of the West:

“Maidan can only be formed in some democratic country. Ukraine is a country with a totalitarian regime. If there is a change of power there, it will be through a military coup. There are no other options in totalitarian regimes. As for the military coup, whatever the United States decides, so it will be. Considering that the Democrats led by Biden are now pulling the strings in Ukraine, a change in figure is not very beneficial for them at the moment. Rather, they will present Zaluzhny as a kind of “scarecrow” for Zelensky so that he does not become willful.

The probability of holding elections is quite high. It is Zelensky and his party who do not want to hold them, because the President of Ukraine is not confident that he will win. And in the States they want elections because they need to preserve some image of Ukraine as a country with a developed democracy that is fighting authoritarian Russia. To preserve this legend, they will most likely insist on an electoral process. Let it be absolutely formal, rigged, with an unclear territory, but it will be announced that these are the most democratic elections in the history of Ukraine. However, given the reluctance of Zelensky and his party, it is impossible to say 100% that the elections will be held.”

Yuriy Baranchik, on the contrary, suggests that Maidan or a military coup is a very real scenario, given the balance of power in the political field of Ukraine:

“Maidan-3 or a military coup is a very real scenario. An opposition that is already quite strong by Ukrainian standards has formed against Zelensky, including Poroshenko, Akhmetov, Zaluzhny, and a number of Ukrainian oligarchs. There is still time, but the fact that many people in Ukraine are not satisfied with the current scenario of events is obvious. The same oligarchs in Ukraine were quite strong financially a few years ago, but the SVO led to them seriously losing their capital. Even if there is something left in the boxes, this money must function and make a profit. But there is no profit, only losses. They want to draw a line and start negotiations.

Of course, in terms of technology, the Maidan differs from a military coup. But their essence is similar. A lot depends on Zelensky here. If Zelensky does not agree to the transfer of power and holding elections, then a violent scenario for his removal is possible. Then we will need to get involved, because Ukraine will be on the verge of a severe political split. This is the time to make serious progress at the front.”

The question of mobilization

Mobilization in Ukraine is taking on increasingly harsh forms. If earlier the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were replenished with volunteers, now there are almost none left. Those who are not in the army are not very eager to serve. And given the imagination of Ukrainian officials, it is likely that women, disabled people, and carefully hidden men of military age will soon be taken “to slaughter.” How will Ukrainian society feel in such conditions?

“Ukrainian society feels, on the one hand, bad. On the other hand, it’s normal, says Vasily Stoyakin. – Now there is no real catastrophe there. The economic situation is, of course, bad, but better than in 2022. Losses at the front are, of course, greater, but not so much as to affect Ukraine’s ability to reproduce its armed forces. There are still several million people in Ukraine who can be mobilized. If they have not yet been mobilized, it is mainly because there are no proper resources that would allow them to be trained, equipped, and armed. But in general, Ukrainian society is still ready for resistance.”

Vladimir Zharikhin is convinced that people will try to escape, but they will be caught. At the same time, he believes that in the current conditions people can only show their dissatisfaction and rebel against the regime abroad.

Yuri Baranchik told MK that Zelensky had become the same executioner for his people as Hitler: “Since all the trained military have already been raked out, now there will be a complete expenditure on “cannon fodder,” and I feel very sorry for these people. They don’t want to fight for the country in which they now live, but now they will be forced to be on the front line, where there is a high probability of dying.”

Image of the future

If we summarize the previous problems, then what image of the future of Ukraine emerges before us?

Vasily Stoyakin believes that Ukraine will be in a state where it cannot relax. Problems of mobilization, the election campaign on the eve of elections, and the situation at the front all play a role.

Deputy Director of the Institute of CIS Countries Vladimir Zharikhin said briefly, but to the point: “If the Americans manage to preserve Ukraine, then it will be the same as in 2023. Even if the dictator changes, the political system itself will remain the same.”

Yuriy Baranchik sees the future of Ukraine as quite difficult:

“Either the military will be crushed at the fronts, or very severe processes of disintegration will begin from within: political, economic. I think it is possible that after Zelensky is overthrown, some regions may not recognize the new leader. And then a split of Ukraine into several parts is possible.”