The accumulation of “toxic” currency played into the hands of the population
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According to the Bank of Russia, extended household savings increased by RUB 1.3 trillion in November 2022 to RUB 82.3 trillion (see chart). In their structure, bank deposits occupied 49%, cash – 25%, stocks and shares – 10%, insurance and pension savings – 8%, escrow accounts – 5%, debt securities – 3%, money in brokerage accounts – less than 1 %. Taking into account seasonality, over the month, assets in rubles added 0.9 trillion rubles, in foreign currency – the equivalent of 0.4 trillion rubles, the shares of ruble and foreign currency assets still amount to 80% and 20%, analysts of the Telegram channel “Solid Figures” calculated “. Individuals’ deposits increased by 0.7 trillion rubles, mainly due to a noticeable net inflow of funds to current accounts (0.4 trillion rubles per month) due to an increase in the rate on short-term deposits from 5.12% in October to 5.25% in November 2022. “The data for December will reflect the weakening of the ruble: due to the revaluation, the foreign exchange part of savings could grow by about 2.5 trillion rubles,” the authors of Hard Figures write. The net inflow of money from citizens to accounts in foreign banks in general for January-November 2022 amounted to 3.2 trillion rubles. (in total, they store 5 trillion rubles in ruble equivalent).
Households’ assets in securities increased in November by 0.6 trillion rubles, the net inflow into shares and bonds totaled 0.3 trillion rubles. As analysts of the Central Bank note in the review of financial sector risks for November-December, individuals and non-financial organizations were the main net buyers of shares under trust management.
The Central Bank notes that the increase in the population’s savings in cash rubles in November amounted to almost 0.7 trillion rubles, and investments in cash decreased by almost 0.3 trillion rubles – the total increase in cash amounted to 0.4 trillion rubles. in November against 0.5 trillion rubles. in October 2022. “Individuals, as a rule, have a counter-cyclical impact on the foreign exchange market – they sell a “toxic” currency when the ruble weakens and buy when it strengthens. However, in December there were no systematic sales on their part. The exception was December 15, when individuals sold “toxic” currency for 25.8 billion rubles, which temporarily slowed down the weakening of the ruble, ”the authors of the Central Bank review say, adding that in total in November and December, on the stock exchange and through banks, individuals bought currencies for 224.4 billion rubles, which “also had a negative impact on the dynamics of the ruble.”
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