100 rubles per US dollar: threshold for depreciation named

After what mark will the extreme fall of the national currency begin?

The depreciation of the ruble is associated with a drop in export earnings at the beginning of 2023, but Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexei Zabotkin assures that this is a temporary phenomenon and the situation will soon level off. Financial analysts doubt it. According to experts, in the near future the “American” will continue to grow, and the ruble will lose ground.

– Why does the fall of the national currency continue?

Alexey Fedorov, TeleTrade analyst: “The situation on the Russian foreign exchange market is now very nervous. We must try to look at her impartially. So far, the Russian currency has not fallen below last week’s low of 83.40 per US dollar. It is gradually stabilizing after moving into a new range of 78-84 per US dollar. The reasons for the move are clear. A similar situation was observed in December 2022, when, after the November decline in oil prices, there was a depreciation in December. Now the situation is the same, the March drop in oil prices was won back in early April.”

Ivan Samoilenko, managing partner of the B&C Agency: “According to the statements of the Central Bank, the ruble is declining against the dollar and the euro due to a decrease in exports in the first quarter of this year. Lack of income with rising spending leads to a budget deficit and, as a result, to the weakening of the national currency.

– What is the scenario of extreme course failure?

Fedorov: “If oil does not hold the rise in prices, which we have been seeing since the beginning of April, then we can talk about a possible continuation of the depreciation of the ruble. The signal for this will be the growth of the US dollar above 84-85 rubles in April-May. This is a key level, the breakdown of which in the coming weeks can trigger an extreme fall in the course. The targets will be 100-110 rubles per US dollar.”

Samoilenko: “Even last year, the regulator predicted that the complex consequences of the imposed sanctions would have the maximum negative effect this year. So you should be mentally prepared for the fact that the dollar will continue to grow, as well as the European currency.”

– What will be the course in the near future?

Fedorov: “The base scenario for the Russian currency implies a range of 78-84 per US dollar. The ruble can be in it until July-August, but only if there are no external force majeure, such as a banking crisis in the United States. If force majeure does not occur in the next couple of months, then the next wave of depreciation can be expected in the traditionally unfavorable period for the ruble – August – September. Then the targets for the reduction of the Russian currency will be a range of 90-95 per US dollar.”

Samoilenko: “It is difficult to say what will be the threshold for the ruble to fall. But the fact is that with the current budget deficit, the dollar should cost about 85 rubles. Apparently, the “American” will overcome this level in the near future.