“Your salary will be raised”: economists have named the categories of Russians who are lucky

Experts emphasize that in our case, low unemployment is not a reason to be proud. This is a wake-up call for the economy and, at the same time, a wake-up call for job seekers. The fact is that the Russian labor market is returning to a situation of significant predominance of demand over supply. Employers will fight for qualified personnel, including by luring job seekers with significant salaries. What threatens low unemployment in the current geopolitical and economic conditions? How will companies attract employees and why are the salaries of state employees in no hurry to index? “MK” addressed these questions to specialists.

Ivan Samoylenko, Managing Partner at B&C Agency: “The low unemployment rate in Russia now is due to several reasons. Firstly, over the past year there has been an outflow of employees from different areas (influenced by the events of the spring and autumn of last year). Secondly, some industries never recovered from the pandemic. For example, in the housing and utilities sector and construction, a large proportion of workers were migrants from the CIS countries, who began to leave en masse when the lockdowns began, and later the flow did not recover to the pre-crisis level.

Thirdly, part of the Russians were mobilized or went to military service under a contract, which also freed up jobs. And the last factor – traditionally low unemployment in the Russian Federation is due to the fact that staff can work part-time, on a reduced schedule, and the like. That is, such employees have not been officially dismissed, although some of the vacancies have actually been vacated. So it turns out that the country has low unemployment.

It would seem that this is good. But in the economy, there is an acute shortage of personnel in certain areas (from the IT sector to construction and sales). In the field of hiring, the current situation is called the “applicant market”. One vacancy can now account for only 1.5-2.5 resumes, which makes personnel departments recruit people for work with little or no choice. And this is the situation in the most mass-produced profession in the country – this is how salespeople are now being recruited, although earlier there were up to a dozen resumes for one vacancy.

Therefore, employers will raise salaries and offer bonuses that they will have to fight for the employee. This applies not only to line personnel (salespeople, waiters, administrators, managers), but also to working specialties – the lack of qualified specialists is especially acute in production.

And in the areas of retail and sales, finance and marketing, there has long been a real hunt for high-level professionals for top positions (directors, managers). They are poached from competing structures, offered bonuses and other preferences.

In general, the situation with the incomes of the population in the country needs to be improved – the government has spoken about this more than once, and this is necessary to stimulate economic growth. Therefore, new decisions will certainly be made on the indexation of salaries in the public sector, and the shortage of qualified personnel in the market will lead to an increase in the financial remuneration of employees.”

Georgy Ostapkovich, Director of the Center for Market Research, Institute for Statistical Research and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics: “Income and employment rates are among the most difficult indicators to analyze. Because a very large part of the citizens are engaged in informal activities. About 20% of the total income is not seen by Rosstat.

Where people get this money, no one knows. Lots of options. You can bring up other people’s children, paint fences, build baths and summer cottages for someone. We have somewhere between 10-12 trillion rubles do not go through the tax. Official statistics do not record these amounts and do not see these workers.

According to the statements of the president and the government, the incomes of citizens will grow. How can incomes grow if the economy does not grow? Incomes are formed from profits, and profits come only with increasing production.

Why is unemployment so low in Russia? And it is low only according to the methodology of the International Labor Organization (ILO). But if you take into account how many people are now on administrative leave, without pay or working on a reduced schedule, then the unemployment rate will be higher. In Russia, the labor market employs somewhere between 74-75 million people: 3 million unemployed and about 72 million employed. Meanwhile, we have 81 million people of working age. It turns out that 6 million people do not appear anywhere at all. Yes, maybe they are housewives and students, maybe they are disabled, but 6 million is a very large figure that is not included in official employment.

Yes, the official unemployment rate is around 3.5%. This is the best indicator in the history of the new Russia. At the same time, there is a shortage of workers in the country. The import of technologies and equipment has stopped. You have to create everything yourself, but there are not enough hands. Take, for example, the defense industry, which works in three shifts. Three shifts are people. Suppose an average defense plant needs 400 people. Three shifts is 1200 people! What kind of unemployment are we talking about?

But the main problem now is not the level of employment, but the qualifications of personnel. You can take on free jobs housewives, teenagers and pensioners. But what can they do? What’s the point of this?

Therefore, employers will fight for qualified personnel. Such workers will be offered an impressive social package, a decent salary, they will be put in a queue for housing, they will be given personal transport. But at the same time, some employers poach employees of other companies. It turns out that someone loses, someone finds, and in the end it turns out “about zero”. There will be a plus only if a skilled worker moves from inefficient to efficient production.

Meanwhile, for qualified personnel today is a very favorable time. It is professional knowledge that is valued, and not nepotism, as before.

If we talk about the indexation of salaries for public sector employees, due to which it was possible to reach an increase in real wages at least on paper, then it does not exist. All the money went to low-income groups of the population: families with children, people who receive wages at the level of the minimum wage (minimum wage) or a little more.

The country has a budget deficit, but the poverty rate has fallen. There is nowhere for public sector employees to get money for indexation. Nabiullina, of course, could turn on the printing press, but this is fraught with inflation.”

Igor Nikolaev, Chief Researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences: “Low unemployment is more of a wake-up call than an achievement. It indicates a total shortage of both qualified and unskilled personnel in the country. This is a deterrent for the economy. When you begin to understand the causes and analyze the consequences that this situation can lead to, you get much more minuses from low unemployment than pluses.

Employers are already competing for employees. The growth of salaries, which is now fixed, is a consequence of the fact that people are lured with money. The most effective mechanism to attract employees is to pay more.

It would seem that this is good for the citizens. But miracles don’t happen. If employers start paying more, then there can be no question of any development of companies. There will be enough money only to maintain production, and not to invest. And this is bad for the economy as a whole.

Real wages will not grow by 5% at the end of the year, as predicted by the Ministry of Economic Development, because inflation will be higher than forecasts. I admit that wage growth may be, but by 1-2% – hardly higher. Specialists in the manufacturing industries, first of all, can count on an increase. But citizens for the most part will not notice an increase in income. People’s attention is always naturally fixed on the rise in price of certain goods. How can you feel an increase of even 5% if food prices continue to rise in price? The same applies to medicines, travel expenses, utilities…

And then there is a hitch with the indexation of salaries. The budgetary problems are big. The deficit is huge, it is already measured in trillions of rubles, and this trend will not change further. Therefore, there is a total cost savings. Under such conditions, I think that if there is an indexation, it will be very modest.”