“You can’t stop fighting” – Kommersant FM

Hamas released a hostage with Russian citizenship. The kidnapped Russian was handed over to representatives of the Red Cross. His name is Ron Krivoy, the Russian Foreign Ministry clarified. In total, Hamas will release 50 people, all women and children, as part of the exchange scheme, and the Jewish state will release about 150 Palestinians from prison. The last exchange is due to take place on November 27th. But if the militants continue to hand over other prisoners to Israel, the humanitarian pause will be extended. Kommersant FM columnist Mikhail Gurevich wondered whether recent events could lead to peace in the region.

Most modern wars end not with a full-fledged peace treaty, but with some kind of truce, which is permanently extended and, in fact, freezes the conflict. And then the task of diplomats is to find a solution that will allow the parties not only to stop shooting, but to sit down at the negotiating table and eventually shake hands. This is roughly what has happened over the years between Arab countries and Israel. With the intervention of the USSR and the USA, military actions were curtailed, and sometimes led to peace agreements, as happened with Egypt in 1978, for example.

It’s a different matter when it comes to a clash with a terrorist group. From the point of view of Hamas, there can be no peace with Israel in principle. Islamist ideology says that from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea there is only room for the state of Palestine. And with the Zionists, only a temporary ceasefire, or “hudna” in Arabic, is possible. That is why the Palestinian side is confident since Friday that the war is over, Hamas has won, and the Jews have retreated. After all, she is thin – she is thin. Every military operation in Gaza ended like this. So why should this time be any different?

In the Jewish state they look at this issue differently. On the evening of November 27, the last group of hostages should be released. Further, an extension of one day is provided for each new group of at least 10 prisoners. In total, experts predict that 70-80 Israelis will be released. This means that hostilities must resume on November 30 or December 1.

And here a dilemma arises: on the one hand, pressure from the international community, including the Americans and the British, is growing; Qatari mediators are talking about preparing a new large-scale deal, but it takes time and preferably without bombing.

On the other hand, ordinary Israelis who will not forgive their government for abandoning the initial goals of the operation: the destruction of Hamas and the return of all those captured. Even if 100 people return under the current deal, more than 100 Israelis will remain in the hands of terrorists.

And, most importantly, Hamas is not going anywhere. This means that in a couple of years, rockets will again fly to the cities of the country. This is also understood by hundreds of thousands of residents of border villages, who are unlikely to agree to return home if they again have to spend several hours a day in a bomb shelter.

Israel faces a difficult choice. You can’t stop fighting. Where is the correct place to put a comma here? It is extremely difficult to make forecasts. Most likely, the Israeli army will still resume military operations, but on a smaller scale and with an emphasis on clearing northern Gaza. However, if an agreement is reached on the release of all hostages, then I would not rule out a complete cessation of hostilities. Under the conditions of international guarantees, perhaps even with a UN Security Council resolution.

But such a solution will not give the expected result. You cannot negotiate with terrorists. This is the main difference between a war between two countries and a war against various types of jihadists.

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