Work and labor will not grind progress – Kommersant

By 2027, the global labor market will shrink by 2%, as the world’s largest companies will cut 83 million jobs and open only 69 million, experts predict the World Economic Forum (WEF). The main drivers of workforce transformation are digitalization, the spread of ESG standards and slow economic growth. Because of this, among employers, the demand for artificial intelligence and sustainable development specialists, business analysts will increase, and fall for bank and postal clerks, cashiers, accountants and officials. Among the most sought-after skills among specialists will be cognitive and creative abilities, as well as technological literacy.

Employers will transform almost a quarter of all jobs in the world (23%) in the next five years, according to experts from the World Economic Forum (WEF), the authors of The Future of Jobs 2023 report. It is based on an analysis of a survey of respondents from 803 companies employing more than 11.3 million people in 45 countries. Survey participants were asked about macro-trends, technology trends and their impact on jobs, and what workforce transformation strategies their businesses plan to adopt.

Among the key factors that, in the opinion of the respondents, will affect the global labor market in the next few years, the majority named the introduction of new technologies, in particular digitalization, the spread of sustainable development standards, as well as low economic growth rates with a high cost of living. Speaking about new technologies, the majority of business representatives (75%) noted that they plan to use big data, cloud computing and artificial intelligence in their work. By introducing innovations, business, in turn, will need specialists who are ready to work with them – as WEF analysts expect, by 2027 there will be a quarter more specialists in artificial intelligence, sustainable development, business analysts, information security specialists and engineers in the world fintech. In addition to them, the top 10 most in-demand professions will include data analysts, engineers specializing in robots, big data specialists and agricultural machinery operators. At the same time, digitalization will lead to a reduction in the need for a number of specialties, primarily related to the delivery of information – in 2027, the number of bank and postal clerks and cashiers in the world may be halved. In addition to them, the top 10 least demanded specialties include secretaries, accountants, civil servants, financiers, statisticians, security guards and salespeople.

However, when speaking about labor market trends, WEF analysts point not so much to a reduction in the number of employees in absolute terms — by 2027, according to their estimates, the global labor market will lose only 2% of jobs (14 million), but rather to their renewal: the same period is expected to emerge 69 million new ones. The transformation will affect the media, entertainment and sports sector the most, where up to a third (32%) of jobs will change one way or another. In second place are governments (29%) and the information technology and digital communications sector (29%), followed by real estate (27%). The minimum changes will be in the food and entertainment sector (16%), the aviation and space industry (19%) and manufacturing (19.5%).

However, even those specialists whose professions will remain in demand in five years, according to WEF analysts, will have to reconsider their professional competencies. Nearly half (44%) of the skills of most workers, according to their employers, will need updating. These are primarily cognitive skills, reflecting the growing importance of solving complex problems in the workplace, creative thinking ability, and technological literacy. Because of this, according to employers, six out of ten workers will need to be retrained, however, given the current educational opportunities in the public and corporate sectors, only half of those in need will have access to programs.

Taking into account the professional profile of the labor market of the Russian Federation, it can be assumed that it, like the markets of other countries, is waiting for the flow of workers from one profession to another. So, in the coming years, a massive reduction in salespeople is likely – the second most common profession in the Russian Federation (according to the Higher School of Economics) after drivers (almost 5 million people). At the same time, the transformation of the workforce can be quite difficult to manage the forces of the state – 50% of workers in the Russian Federation are employed in only 28 professions.

Anastasia Manuylova