Without the August decline: experts argued about the size of real inflation in August

The slowdown in the growth of prices for some foodstuffs was discovered by the Russians. Such a conclusion can be drawn from a survey by the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM). Participants in the study were less likely to report increases in the cost of sugar, bread and flour products, dairy products, eggs, and vegetables. At the same time, almost half of the respondents indicated that prices for basic products, goods and services grew faster than before. How do the assessments of Russians and the real state of affairs with inflation, “MK” found out from experts.

In August and September, deflation is often observed in Russia – this is the name of the process of price reduction. Most often, this effect is achieved by reducing the cost of vegetables and fruits during the period of active harvesting.

For example, such a phenomenon was recorded in September 2017 and at the end of summer in 2019-2022. However, experts make forecasts for the last summer month of this year very carefully: painfully conflicting data are coming in. The dollar exchange rate is at one and a half year highs, and it seriously affects prices on the Russian market. The Bank of Russia raised the rate in July by 1%, pointing once again to the threat of inflation. Rosstat, again, noted an increase in price growth in July to 4.3% against the background of the weakening of the ruble.

But according to FOM polls, Russians this August were less likely to notice an increase in sugar prices – 28% (for comparison, in July there were 33%); bread and bakery products – 19% (previously 24%); milk and dairy products – 23% (in July there were 27%); eggs – 18% (previously 22%); fruits and vegetables – 18% (against 22% last month).

At the same time, virtually every second survey participant (49%) said that prices for basic goods, products and services have increased faster over the past month than before.

As noted by the head of the audit and consulting group “AIP” Sergei Elin, one cannot deny a certain psychological effect identified in the survey of FOM. Many families live in dachas, building their daily diet on food grown on their own land or purchased from the villagers.

At the same time, sugar and cereals, for example, are used from stocks made on the eve of the summer season. “Although, as a layman, I will add that prices for many products have not really increased lately,” the analyst emphasized.

The August deflation is explained by the seasonal decline in prices for fruits and vegetables. Especially in this deflationary process, basic vegetables from the so-called borscht set – potatoes, cabbage, beets, carrots – help. A sharp decline in prices, for example, for cabbage, may result in deflation in statistics, although certain groups of goods will retain their price or even rise in price, the expert explained.

According to Anastasia Khrustaleva, senior vice-president of IC Fontvielle, the FOM survey is evaluative in nature, that is, it reflects the subjective opinion of Russians about rising prices for key goods. It is not indicative in terms of price dynamics, unlike, for example, the data of Rosstat, but it allows us to analyze how the Russians themselves react to inflation.

Conventionally, if they note a significant increase in one of the categories, then this item of expenditure becomes painful for the personal or family budget – for the Federal Antimonopoly Service, this is an occasion to take a closer look at the pricing of a particular product.

“I would note that year by year, according to the respondents, gasoline prices have soared: the difference in the data of 15% is significant,” Khrustaleva emphasized. — Minor changes in the annual dynamics of the grocery basket are likely associated with the operation of the voluntary markup limitation program, which includes the largest federal retailers, as well as regional players are gradually joining. This program throughout the year allows you to contain the rise in prices for sugar, milk, cereals, eggs, bread, vegetables and fruits, in general, for those food products that are bought most often.

However, if we analyze the inflationary picture as a whole, then deflation is not to be expected. On the contrary, the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, at the last meeting of the Bank of Russia on the key rate, stressed that the general inflation in our country in the coming months will grow up to 5-6.5% per annum.

“Real inflation of 17% is what I understand looking at the Romir index,” investor Mikhail Spektor enters into the discussion. – Inflation, which Rosstat considers, is quite out of touch with reality, they calculate the consumer basket there from more than 500 parameters, which included something that, as a rule, none of us buys. But we all buy consumer goods – FMCG (short for Fast Moving Consumer Goods, which means “consumer goods” – “MK”), and this is the index that Romir considers.

In general, it turns out that, no matter what scale – Rosstat, the Bank of Russia or the research holding Romir – or look at the situation with prices in our country, deflation this year in August should not be expected. But how to protect their funds from inflation – through opening bank deposits, investing in gold, buying real estate or something else – each family must decide on its own.