Why the Ministry of Economy improved the forecast for GDP, inflation and investment for 2022-2023

The Ministry of Economic Development has improved the forecast for Russia’s GDP in 2022: a decline is expected only by 2.9%. In 2023, the economic recession will be less – 0.8%, while already in 2024-2025. GDP will grow at 2.6% per year. Such estimates were presented by the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov during the government hour in the Federation Council. At the end of August, the ministry presented a draft forecast that assumed a 4.2% decline in the economy this year, and 2.7% in 2023. In the previous version, the ministry expected the economy to grow by 3.7% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025.

The government commission on budget projects was held on September 20, on the eve of the announcement of partial mobilization in Russia. It considered the draft federal budget for 2023–2025. and forecast of socio-economic development. The authorities have planned the execution of the federal budget with a deficit for the entire coming three years, but with a gradual reduction: from 2% of GDP in 2023 to 1.4% of GDP in 2024 and 0.7% of GDP in 2025. As the Prime Minister noted Russia, Mikhail Mishustin, in 2023 revenues are expected to be about 26 trillion rubles, expenses – 29 trillion rubles, i.e., the budget deficit should be about 3 trillion rubles. According to the prime minister, it will be covered mainly by borrowing. The forecast will be considered on September 22 at a government meeting, a representative of the Ministry of Economics told Vedomosti, after which the Ministry of Finance will submit a forecast as part of the budget for the next three years to the State Duma.