Why Serbia will not give up supporting Russia

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said that he is ready to call parliamentary elections for March 2024. He stressed that he is “ready to meet the opposition halfway.” Elections will be called by the end of December, Vucic was quoted as saying by RTS.

In September, the opposition criticized the government for its decision to temporarily regulate prices on 20 of the most popular goods as a measure to help citizens amid rising inflation. By agreement with the authorities, manufacturers and retail chains reduced prices by 30% and fixed them until the end of 2023.

The opposition ridiculed the inexpensive sausage from the “discount” consumer basket. And Vučić had breakfast with it together with the heads of the Ministry of Finance Sinisa Mali and the Ministry of Trade Tomislav Momirović.

The President faces various claims both within the country and abroad:

The protesters demanded the resignation of the president, the minister of internal affairs and the head of the security service. And also – the cessation of broadcasting of two TV channels Pink and Happy TV, which, according to citizens, promote violence, aggression and immoral behavior. The violence was generated by the authorities through the media, the opposition said then.

Vucic responded that the opposition uses the emotions of citizens for political purposes. One of the results of the protest was Vucic’s resignation as leader of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party.

On the one hand, the population and most of the political forces within the country who do not agree to recognize the independence of Kosovo.

Before the summit on Serbia and Kosovo in Brussels this winter, the domestic opposition demanded that the president not sign any agreements until the Ukraine crisis was over. Earlier, the Russian ambassador in Belgrade spoke about the same thing – the status of Kosovo should be determined in “different geopolitical conditions.” The center-left opposition saw the agreement as a threat to the preservation of Serbia’s territorial integrity.

French President Emmanuel Macron warned that the EU’s liberal visa regime for Serbia and Kosovo could be changed if the parties do not resolve the Kosovo issue responsibly.

Previously, Vucic stated that he was ready to leave his post in order not to recognize the independence of Kosovo, calling the solution proposed by the West humiliating or such that the head of state personally would not be able to accept it.

Vucic said he supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine, but did not introduce sanctions against Russia. “I expect the pressure to intensify at the end of August and September, we will try to maintain our position. Whether it succeeds or not, we’ll see, there must be principles in politics,” he added. In his opinion, they will try to isolate Serbia, which has been frightening it for ten years.

There are two opposition groups in Serbia – pro-Western liberals and so-called patriots, but they are all completely integrated into the system, so it cannot be said that Vučić is under pressure from them; rather, on the contrary, he uses them to solve his political problems, says a researcher at the Institute of International Studies MGIMO Anastasia Maleshevich.

“Now the opposition is demanding early parliamentary elections – precisely at the moment when the West is increasing pressure on Serbia on the Kosovo issue. That is, in this situation, elections allow you to gain time,” she gives an example.

And although the level of Western support in Serbia is very low, this does not indicate a rejection of European integration, Malešević points out. Because Belgrade maintains a high degree of political and financial dependence on Western countries.

We shouldn’t expect any progress in Serbia’s foreign policy position in the near future, says Ekaterina Entina, a professor at the Higher School of Economics and head of the department of Black Sea-Mediterranean studies. The course that Belgrade is conducting has not only subjective grounds (population support for Russia, etc.), but also quite objective ones, related to the economic and other interests of Serbia, the professor notes.

Fundamental to the country’s economy is to attract investment. “It has been growing over the last ten years, precisely because Vucic succeeded in this (attracting investment – Vedomosti) precisely by playing between a conditionally pro-Western policy and a bet on good relations with Russia, strategic partnership with China and a number of other countries,” – Entina comments. It is the possibility of attracting Chinese and Arab investments to the region that, in her opinion, determines Serbia’s multi-vector foreign policy.

In the future, Vučić will continue to contain Western pressure, the HSE professor believes. Not only because of the need to maintain friendly relations with Russia because of the Kosovo problem in the region, but also because he understands that if sanctions are imposed against Russia, the next step will be “demands from the West to join the policy towards China.”

Only the actual decision on its accession to the European Union, made here and now, could influence Serbia’s position, but de facto this is not yet possible, Entina notes. Despite the fact that Serbia “cannot break economic and legal harmonization with Europe” as one of the main markets for goods and economic cooperation, the decision to join the EU will directly depend on the international situation. “The Serbs will watch how the hybrid confrontation between Russia and the West ends, and make strategic foreign policy decisions based on these changes. And there is no guile in this,” the professor believes.