Why Russia agreed to extend the grain deal

Russia allows the technical prolongation of the deal for the export of grain from the southern Ukrainian ports without changes in terms and scope, since none of its participants opposed, the Foreign Ministry said. The deal under the so-called “Black Sea Initiative” was concluded in Istanbul by Russia, Turkey, the UN and Ukraine on July 22 for 120 days, this period expires on November 19. “The text of the document provides for its automatic extension for another 120 days in the absence of objections from any of the parties. There were no such objections.” says in the message of the Foreign Ministry on November 17.

The Foreign Ministry noted that the Russian side took note of the intensified work of the UN Secretariat to fulfill its obligations to remove obstacles to the supply of Russian fertilizers and food. Moscow continues to emphasize the “interrelated package nature” of these two agreements, and will also stop “any attempts to use the humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea for provocative military purposes.”

Earlier today, the extension of the grain deal was confirmed by the Presidents of Turkey and Ukraine, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Volodymyr Zelensky. Turkish leader notedthat after delivering more than 11 million tons of grain and food aboard almost 500 ships, it became clear “how important and useful” this agreement is for the world’s food supply and security.

“I welcome the agreement of all parties to continue the Black Sea Grain Initiative to promote safe shipping in the export of grain, food and fertilizer,” said UN Secretary General António Guterres. He emphasized the UN’s commitment to its obligations under the second part of the deal, in particular, to help remove obstacles to the export of food and fertilizers from Russia. Earlier, Guterres, according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, “swearingly” assured him of the priority of these agreements during the G20 summit in Bali.

Russia suspended its participation in the grain deal on October 29 due to attacks on ships of the Black Sea Fleet and civilian ships in the bay of Sevastopol, but returned to it on November 2. Then it was possible to resume the implementation of the “Black Sea Initiative” thanks to the mediation of Turkey.

The return to the deal indicated the intention not to impede its extension, says Andrey Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, otherwise grain from Ukrainian ports would have continued to be exported under UN supervision anyway. “Russia would be deprived of the opportunity to inspect ships if it withdraws from this part of the deal. Then, probably, the only alternative would be the decision to escalate,” the expert told Vedomosti.

According to Amur Gadzhiev, a researcher in the Turkish sector of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the results of the G20 summit were of decisive importance for correcting Russia’s position in one direction or another. In the final declaration, the participants, firstly, welcomed the signing of the Istanbul agreements, that is, the grain deal, and, secondly, they agreed that the package set of these agreements should be implemented comprehensively and completely, the expert explains. “Most likely, this gave grounds to assume to the Russian side that the Western countries have given their consent to the implementation of the Russian part of the grain deal. This was enough for Russia to agree to extend the grain deal,” Gadzhiev concluded.

He also noted that Turkey “is a very interested party [сделки] and is lobbying Western countries to fulfill the terms of this deal.” “Her interest is understandable – she fears that alternative routes for transporting Ukrainian grain may be found. Accordingly, this will complicate the implementation of Turkey’s plan to become a regional food grain hub,” he said.

The Russian side has repeatedly publicly expressed its dissatisfaction with the implementation of the agreements on both parts of the grain deal. President Vladimir Putin during the Eastern Economic Forum named the situation with Ukrainian grain is a “blatant deception”. According to him, at that time, out of 2 million tons of food, only 60,000 tons reached the poorest countries, and the EU took the rest of the products. He made a similar statement at the end of September, emphasizing that bread from Ukrainian ports goes to Europe and only 5% goes to the poorest countries. As Deputy Permanent Representative of Russia to the UN Dmitry Polyansky stated, the UN had time to fulfill its obligations to lift restrictions on the export of Russian grain by November 18, since the decision to extend Russia’s participation in the export of Ukrainian grain depends on the effectiveness of fulfilling the terms of the second part of the deal.

On the efforts of European countries to fulfill the second part of the deal at the G20 summit declared French President Emmanuel Macron, promising that a corridor for the supply of Russian fertilizers to Africa will be opened in the coming weeks.