Why Lukashenka spoke about the details of ending the rebellion in Russia

President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko made an appeal on June 27 during the presentation of the general’s epaulettes to the country’s top officers in the Palace of Independence. His speech was devoted to the situation around PMC “Wagner”. In addition, Lukashenka shared the details of negotiations with Yevgeny Prigozhin.

On June 23, the Wagner founder accused the RF Ministry of Defense of attacking the company’s rear camps. The Ministry of Defense later denied these allegations. After that, the Wagner fighters moved out of the special operation zone towards Moscow and Rostov-on-Don. On June 24, the PMC took control of military facilities in Rostov-on-Don and blockaded the city.

Russian President Vladimir Putin called what is happening “apostasy from his people”, “stab in the back” of the country and “internal betrayal.” On the evening of June 24, following the results of the negotiations, where the President of Belarus acted as an intermediary, Prigozhin announced the order of the PMC to stop the movement towards Moscow and return to the rear camps.

Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov said then that as a result of the negotiations an agreement was reached: the criminal case initiated against Prigozhin would be terminated, and he himself would “leave for Belarus.” On June 27, an FSB spokesman confirmed the closure of the case, as “the rebels have stopped their actions directly aimed at committing a crime.”

“The Russian military actually stopped the civil war,” Putin said on June 27, speaking to law enforcement officials who maintained order during the armed rebellion of the Wagner PMC. He thanked Lukashenko for his efforts and contribution to the peaceful resolution of the situation.

According to Lukashenka, he decided to “make things clear” against the backdrop of the appearance of “stuffing and insinuations.” “I will not hide, it was painful to watch the events that took place in the south of Russia. Not only me. Many of our citizens took them to heart,” said the head of Belarus.

It is important to emphasize the unity of the ranks and devotion to the Fatherland, Lukashenka said: “And our Fatherland is from Brest to Vladivostok. This is land, freedom and our peoples who live here. Two states, but we have a common Fatherland.”

When he became aware of the armed rebellion that had begun in Russia, he gave the order to put the army on alert. “The army during the afternoon, all the armed forces, including the police, special forces, were put on full combat readiness,” the Belarusian president said. And he told how he assesses his role in the process of peaceful settlement of the situation in Russia: “I said: in no case should you make a hero out of me, neither of me, nor of Putin, nor of Prigozhin, because we missed the situation, and then we I thought it would go away, but it didn’t. And two people who fought at the front collided. There are no heroes in this business.

Lukashenka added that “if Russia collapses, we will remain under the rubble, we will all die.” In his opinion, if the crisis situation in Russia continued to develop, then “the West would immediately take advantage of this.”

Lukashenko stressed that Deputy Defense Minister, former head of Ingushetia Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and FSB director Alexander Bortnikov, who were the first to try to negotiate with Prigozhin, played a significant role in organizing the negotiations. Yevkurov, according to the head of Belarus, helped him get in touch with Prigozhin.

“At 11.00 [24 июня] He [Пригожин] immediately picked up the phone. That is, Yevkurov called him, gave him the phone: “Here, the President of Belarus is calling, will you talk?” – “I will be with Alexander Grigorievich.” <...> We talked for the first round of 30 minutes in a swear language. Exclusively. There were 10 times more swear words – I later analyzed them – than normal vocabulary,” Lukashenka said (quotes on the Pool of the First Telegram channel).

He noted that the fighters of PMC “Wagner” were in a depressed mood due to heavy losses at the front. “The guys are only from the front. They saw thousands of their dead children. The guys are very offended, especially the commanders,” the Belarusian president said. According to him, the negotiations did not lead to any result for a long time. “I convinced him for a long time. And in the end he said: “You know, you can do whatever you want. But don’t be offended by me. The brigade is ready for transfer to Moscow. And as in 1941 – you read books, an educated, intelligent person – we will defend Moscow. Because this situation is not only in Russia.” Lukashenka is convinced that the consequences of a military mutiny in Russia would inevitably affect Belarus as well.

To Prigozhin’s promise to go to Moscow in search of justice, Lukashenka replied that he would “be crushed like a bug halfway through.” According to the head of Belarus, he said that the demands of the founder of Wagner on the resignation of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu would not be met.

Lukashenka also noted that he “knows the work of Shoigu” and believes that he “is sometimes undeservedly criticized.”

Lukashenka confirmed that Prigozhin is on the territory of Belarus: “Yes, indeed, he is in Belarus today. As I promised, if you want to change corners with us for a while and so on, we will help you. Naturally, for them [ЧВК «Вагнер»] check”.

The leader of Belarus commented on reports in the foreign press that Wagner PMC fighters would allegedly be involved in the protection of nuclear weapons transferred by Russia to Belarus. According to him, they will not do this, since “most of it was imported” to Belarus.

The documents defining the procedure for keeping Russian nuclear weapons in a special storage facility on the territory of the republic were signed on May 25, 2023 by the Ministers of Defense of Russia and Belarus Sergei Shoigu and Viktor Khrenin. Shoigu cited the activity of NATO’s joint nuclear missions as the reasons for this decision.

On June 9, Putin said that the deployment of Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons in Belarus would begin after July 7–8, when the preparation of the corresponding facilities was completed.

Lukashenka uses new events to confirm the picture of the world he broadcasts – the role of Belarus, Russia and Western countries in it and, most importantly, his own status, political scientist Mikhail Vinogradov notes. The Belarusian leader wants to be on the agenda and continue to look like a beneficiary of the events that have taken place – this is the motive for his speech and participation in the “peacekeeping” agenda, the expert says.

According to him, on the one hand, Lukashenko shows alarmism and his role as a moderator, on the other hand, he broadcasts the thesis that “if there was something terrible, I would save everyone.”

Military expert Yuri Knutov notes that in Belarus there is only fixed-term military service and no private military companies, while there is a real threat of foreign intervention from both Poland and Ukraine. “Under these conditions, Lukashenka needs a serious, combat-ready, well-organized structure that, in crisis conditions, could ensure his security and the security of the state,” Knutov said.

Political scientist Yevgeny Minchenko sees in Lukashenka’s speech a different view of the Wagner problem, different from that presented by the official Russian authorities. “In fact, Lukashenka says that the fundamental reason that it came to an attempted military coup,” says the political scientist.

Lukashenka, according to Andrey Suzdaltsev, Associate Professor at the Faculty of World Economy and World Politics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, is concerned about only one thing – his power, attempts to retain which are pushing him to participate in Russian politics. On the one hand, the Belarusian president has problems “in the domestic market”, a huge part of the population has left the country, there is no unity in society and it is necessary to maintain and raise his authority, he says. “On the other hand, Lukashenka would very much like to increase his rating in Russia,” Suzdaltsev said. “And now in the media of Belarus he is positioned as the savior of Russia.” According to the expert, Moscow heard “these motives” and only correctly thanked “for the contribution to solving the problem.”

Lukashenka is convinced that it is he who should negotiate between Kiev and Moscow, and is trying to secure his place at the negotiating table, Suzdaltsev is sure. “He is trying with all his might to legitimize his sixth presidential term in the international arena, but so far, even among the SCO states, not everyone recognizes him,” Vedomosti’s interlocutor noted.

“Given the extraordinary nature of recent events, Russian society needed the details of the negotiations,” said Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS. Judging by what Lukashenka said, Russia is not just his closest ally for him, it is worth talking about a “much deeper connection” between the two countries, the expert emphasized. The events of recent days have become a serious stress test, but at the same time they also showed the depth of the Russian-Belarusian alliance, Officerov-Belsky summed up.