Who will be changed at the crossing – Newspaper Kommersant No. 150 (7351) of 08/18/2022

The likelihood of gubernatorial resignations six months after the start of the military special operation in Ukraine is quite high: according to Minchenko Consulting, every tenth head of the region is now in the “red zone”, that is, at risk of losing his post. The powers of most “outsiders” expire only in 2024, but for various reasons, experts do not promise them anything good. In particular, even the head of the Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, fell into the “red zone”, although special conditions apply in the front-line regions, the authors of the next “rating of political stability” of governors published on Thursday make a reservation.

Among those who found themselves this time in the “red zone” are the governors of the Lipetsk, Volgograd and Omsk regions Igor Artamonov, Andrey Bocharov and Alexander Burkov, as well as the heads of Crimea, Kalmykia, Altai and Khakassia Sergey Aksenov, Batu Khasikov, Oleg Khorokhordin and Valentin Konovalov. All of them, with the exception of the Khakass communist, were still part of the “yellow zone” in December 2021 and, according to Minchenko Consulting, were considered “middle peasants” of the governor’s corps.

Recall that in the framework of the State Council 2.0 report, experts assess the political stability of governors based on nine criteria. Six of them bring points (support for federal politicians, economic attractiveness of the region, the presence of large projects, the quality of political management, etc.), and three more take away points (federal and regional conflicts, criminal cases against the environment). Those who score more than 15 points fall into the “green zone”, those who score more than 15 points fall into the “red” zone, which indicates a high risk of resignation. The rest are in the “yellow zone” with an average level of stability.

The weakening of the position of most of the current outsiders was affected by the approaching end of their term of office.

Points for this criterion, in particular, misters Artamonov, Aksenov, Bocharov, Khasikov and Khorokhordin were missing. All of them are governors of the draft-2019, that is, the issue of re-election will be relevant for them only in 2024. However, already now, at the end of the first term of governor (for Sergei Aksyonov and Andrey Bocharov – the second), the problems of political style are beginning to make themselves felt, says the head of Minchenko Consulting Evgeny Minchenko. “Basically, these leaders started their rule with problems, they were in limbo for a long time. At some point, they were elected, so their stability increased, but the deadline passes, but the problems remain, ”he explained to Kommersant.

The only governor whose position was shaken for other reasons was the Omsk Right Russian Alexander Burkov. Compared to the previous rating, experts took away two points from him at once for criminal scandals. The gubernatorial elections in the Omsk region will be held next year, so theoretically, Mr. Burkov may already fall under the next rotation. “There will be bargaining with A Just Russia,” predicts Mr. Minchenko.

Also, traditionally, another opposition governor who took office in 2018, the head of Khakassia, Valentin Konovalov (KPRF), turned out to be among the outsiders. According to Yevgeny Minchenko, the “loser” of all kinds of ratings will no longer be dismissed ahead of schedule: the expert does not exclude that the presidential administration will let the unpopular Mr. Konovalov into the 2023 elections, where he will lose to the pro-government candidate. Recall that the Khakassian communist remains the last acting governor who was able to defeat the United Russia competitor – Khabarovsk Sergey Furgal and Vladimir Sipyagin had previously lost their powers.

Finally, the authors of the report placed the head of Udmurtia Alexander Brechalov in the “red zone”, although in less than a month he will again fight for his post in direct elections, that is, he is unlikely to face early resignation. Nevertheless, for half a year, Mr. Brechalov “dipped” in the field of positioning, which gave the experts reason to classify him as an outsider.

According to Yevgeny Minchenko, the special operation in Ukraine affected the stability of Russian governors in different ways. For example, the Crimean head of Sergei Aksyonov, “lagging behind in all respects,” she “pulls out,” the expert believes: “Aksenov has a joker: changing horses during a special operation is a risky story.” At the same time, the rotation of the Russian governor corps itself, against the background of the integration of the “liberated territories” of Ukraine, recedes into the background, adds Mr. Minchenko.

“Probably, the autumn resignations can also be postponed – to the domestic political bloc (presidential administration.— “b”) now it’s just not up to it,” Yevgeny Minchenko sums up.

Political scientist Rostislav Turovsky considers it premature to assess the likelihood of resignations of governors whose powers expire in two years, since “the issue of 2023 is, of course, more relevant for the Kremlin.” “As for the fate of Konovalov, it will depend on the agreements between the presidential administration and the Communist Party. His positions are obviously weak, but it is still unknown what will be included in the package of agreements. Burkov at one time was part of other agreements with the Social Revolutionaries, therefore his fate also depends on the relationship between the Kremlin and the party, and they are always somewhat more subtle, ”the expert argues. Whether the upcoming rotations will be large-scale is also still unknown, because the terms of the governors appointed under the new internal political bloc of the Kremlin administration are coming to an end, Mr. Turovsky notes: “And each potential resignation will be considered separately here – so that it does not look like they does not work”.

Andrew Ashes