Who dropped the ruble – MK

The situation with the ruble looks “stranger and stranger,” as the heroine of a Lewis Carroll fairy tale would say. On the one hand, the rate continues to literally fall into a kind of bottomless rabbit hole: on Wednesday, August 9, the Russian currency reached 97.2 per dollar and 106.7 per euro on the stock exchange. On the other hand, the monetary authorities represented by the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank show with all their appearance that there are no grounds for alarm. Maybe they are right, because they have some kind of secret knowledge?

“Now we see high weekly gains in prices. And this is largely due to fluctuations in the exchange rate, ”said Alexei Zabotkin, deputy chairman of the Central Bank. Noting also that the Bank of Russia allows the key rate to be raised already at the next (September 15) meeting of the board of directors, the official explained: the main task of the monetary policy (monetary policy) is to stabilize inflation at the target level of 4% in the long term. Thus, the topic of the ruble was not disclosed. Inflation targeting is an absolute, for all time, priority for the regulator.

Meanwhile, in the last three months alone, the rate of “wooden” has fallen by 20%, entering the top three of the weakest in the world and leading in terms of volatility. Over the year, the ruble lost 57% against the dollar, the euro – 73%. First of all, due to the simultaneous reduction of exports and expansion of imports, due to the growing imbalance between the demand and supply of foreign currency. The summer tourist season (when dollars and euros are especially in demand among the population), sales of Russian assets by foreign companies, and an increase in budget expenditures played their role. Finally, on August 7, the Ministry of Finance resumed the purchase of foreign currency and gold for oil and gas revenues – for the first time since January 2022, sending an unambiguous signal to the market: we are not going to support the ruble.

“What the Central Bank is doing today is reminiscent of fighting windmills,” says financial analyst Sergei Drozdov. – By raising the rate, the regulator, at best, will stabilize inflation at a high level, but will not reduce it in any way. Plus, the economy and its investment prospects will suffer.

As for the ruble, the Central Bank deliberately does not advertise the topic of a direct relationship between the exchange rate and inflation, so that people do not have unnecessary uncomfortable questions. This silence, this absence of verbal interventions will last until the ruble weakens to a very scandalous level, say, 120 per dollar. Now it is useless to guess what this pain threshold will turn out to be, it is only clear that nothing good is shining for the course so far.

Of course, this is a negative for importers, but first of all for the population, since the price tags in stores are being tightened.”

According to Drozdov, he still sees the reason for what is happening with the Russian currency in an unspoken consensus between the two pillars of the country’s monetary system – the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance. From the point of view of filling the federal budget (formed in rubles), the level of 100-120 per dollar is more logical than 60-70 per dollar. And since the regulators do nothing to strengthen the exchange rate, it means that there is no such need. Rather, on the contrary. Market speculators take advantage of this obvious insecurity of the ruble: feeling quite at ease, large players rot it on the stock exchange as they please.

“Why don’t the financial authorities resort to “fire” measures, similar to those they took in February-March 2022? For example, exporters were obliged to sell 80% of foreign exchange earnings under all foreign trade agreements, recalls Drozdov. – The current situation is not as dramatic as that spring, when the dollar cost 120 rubles, and it was necessary to urgently extinguish the panic among the population, which rushed to buy foreign currency and imported equipment. Today, there is no such threat, since imports (primarily cars) cost a lot of money, and people acquire dollars and euros as needed, in particular, on the eve of a vacation. In the spring of 2022, the country experienced shock and acute pain, as it faced things unknown to itself, but now there is nothing of this: addiction has long come.”

The restrained position of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance is explained simply: today, unlike last spring, the financial system is not threatened with a complete imbalance.

Let’s not forget that individuals are subject to restrictions on cash withdrawals (no more than $10,000), says Igor Nikolaev, chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

In addition, the interlocutor of MK notes that in 2022 there were risks of a complete cessation of investment activities, a halt in economic processes, and now there is nothing like that. Nevertheless, the prospect of the ruble exceeding the mark of 100 per dollar looms quite clearly. It looks like this will happen before the end of August.