Which “Path” did Vladimir Putin choose in China?

The third “One Belt, One Road” forum is starting in China, in which Vladimir Putin is also participating for the third time. The Diaoyutai residences, where state leaders stayed, are more than 800 years old – although the buildings where the leaders live were built much later. In Russian, the name of the residence roughly translates as “fishing terrace.” Fish swim in the ponds in the park where the residence is located, and the Beijing TV Tower is visible on the horizon.

On the first day after arriving in China, October 17, Vladimir Putin held six bilateral meetings. Moreover, if the meetings with the President of Vietnam Vo Van Thuong, the Prime Minister of Thailand Settha Thavisin, the President of Mongolia Ukhnagiin Khurelsukh and the President of Laos Thongloun Sisoulith were announced in advance, then the meetings with the Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban and with and. O. Prime Minister of Pakistan Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar was not announced in advance.

The Russian delegation included in the negotiations: Deputy Prime Ministers Alexander Novak and Dmitry Chernyshenko, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov, presidential aides Yuri Ushakov and Maxim Oreshkin, presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov, Chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, Director of the FSMTC Dmitry Shugaev, RDIF General Director Kirill Dmitriev, Rosatom General Director Alexey Likhachev, Novatek Chairman of the Board Leonid Mikhelson.

Putin’s first meeting was with the President of Vietnam. At the meeting, the leaders exchanged friendly greetings. Putin said that “there is no need to say how close our peoples are and how this has developed over the previous decades.” But Thuong still noted that the Vietnamese people remember the great “kind-hearted assistance provided by the Soviet Union, Russia and the Russian people during the difficult years of the war and now, when we are developing the country.” “In the hearts of many Vietnamese people and in my heart, the image of the beautiful landscape of Russia, the image of Russian character, the image of good Russian people is always well preserved,” the Vietnamese president unexpectedly said.

Putin spoke about a decline in trade and economic interaction in 2022 and a slight increase in 2023. And the President of Vietnam recalled the visits of Russian “comrades” in 2023. “Only this year, a comrade visited Vietnam [Дмитрий] Medvedev <...> We also conferred with a friend [председателем Верховного суда Вячеславом] Lebedev and met with the Deputy Prime Minister [Дмитрием] Chernyshenko. Just yesterday a friend visited us [спикер Госдумы Вячеслав] Volodin,” Thuong listed his comrades. Vietnamese comrades also visited Russia, he recalled: the Minister of Defense, the Minister of Public Security, the Deputy Chairman of the National Assembly of the country. After this, Thuong thanked Putin for a long time for the unveiling of a monument to the founder of the Vietnamese Communist Party, Ho Chi Minh, in St. Petersburg this year.

Putin’s bilateral meetings with other leaders followed a similar scenario. The President of Russia, at a meeting with almost all the heads of delegations with whom he held negotiations, noted that friendly relations were maintained, trade turnover was falling and humanitarian ties were developing. This was noted at a meeting with the Prime Minister of Thailand Settha Thaweesin, who was appointed to this post only on August 22, 2023 and met with Putin for the first time.

At a meeting with the President of Russia, the Prime Minister of Thailand paid tribute to the fashionable barbicore by wearing pink socks (RIA Novosti, however, wrote that in Thailand each day of the week has its own color, Tuesday is pink). Putin spoke to the President of Mongolia Ukhnaigiin Khurelsukh about significant projects, including joint ones with the People’s Republic of China – meaning “Power of Siberia – 2”. And Putin called the President of Laos, Thongloun Sisoulith, a “reliable friend” and recalled that they studied in Leningrad for almost the same years. Sisulit spoke Russian with Putin, saying at the beginning of the conversation that he wanted to practice this language.

The “One Belt – One Road” forum became an excellent occasion for the Russian leader to “synchronize watches” with some leaders of Southeast Asian countries, says Mikhail Terskikh, a researcher at the Center for the Indian Ocean Region of the IMEMO RAS. In general, the region, with the exception of Singapore, is friendly or at least neutral towards Russia, Terskikh notes. Those countries in Southeast Asia whose leaders Putin meets can afford a greater degree of autonomy in contacts with Russia without regard to other major world players.

Although Russia lags far behind China as a trading partner, it could become an important partner for energy projects – potential hydroelectric power plants in Laos or possible resumption of nuclear power plant negotiations with Vietnam, the expert says. From a formal point of view, the highest level of relations between Russia and Vietnam is a comprehensive strategic partnership, says Terskikh; a high level of military-technical cooperation (MTC) is maintained with the country.

According to the expert, there are no such strong contacts with Thailand in the political sphere and military-technical cooperation, but economic ties are actively developing, including in the field of tourism.

Russia and Mongolia have many common interests in matters of economic interaction and security, says Alexander Vorontsov, head of the Department of Korea and Mongolia at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. First of all, the parties are interested in discussing the implementation of the trilateral transport project “Russia – Mongolia – China”. The focus is also on the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.

Between these meetings, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban came to Putin’s residence. It was known that Orban would attend the forum. The press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, did not confirm the holding of such a bilateral meeting. The conversation with Orban was Putin’s first meeting with the leader of an EU country after the start of the special operation in Ukraine. The previous meeting with the leader of one of the EU countries was in Moscow – German Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrived on February 15, 2022.

Putin greeted the Hungarian Prime Minister, noting that in the current geopolitical conditions the opportunities for maintaining contacts are limited, but relations with many European countries are maintained and developing. According to Putin, relations between Russia and Hungary have always been built “on the basis of taking into account interests, on everything positive that was inherited from the past.” He noted that if last year the growth in trade between Russia and Hungary was 80%, then this year it was “minus 35%,” so he suggested thinking about what to do to “influence this process in a positive way.” “We know that our positions do not always coincide. But to have the opportunity to exchange opinions, in my opinion, is always extremely important,” Putin said.

Orbán estimates that this is the thirteenth meeting with Putin since 2009. “There have been difficult meetings, but never as difficult as this one. We have never been in such a difficult situation before. Hungary never wanted to confront Russia. Quite the contrary, Hungary’s goal has always been to expand contacts with Russia. And we succeeded,” he noted. But due to the special operation in Ukraine and sanctions, bilateral relations have lost a lot, Orban said. In his words, “It struck at the fabric of what you and I built together.” But despite this, Hungary is doing everything possible to “save what it can” from bilateral contacts, and the country is ready to maintain communication with Russia, including in the field of economics.

Orbán thanked “Rosatom“for remaining a partner of Hungary” and “Gazprom» – for fulfilling obligations under agreements. He noted that much can be saved from what was previously achieved. “No one likes to see the results of his work once achieved, due to reasons for which he is not guilty, reduced to nothing,” Orbán said. After the welcoming speech, the meeting was held behind closed doors.

Russia is a long-time economic partner of Hungary, so Budapest is interested in maintaining contacts with Moscow, said Kirill Teremetsky, an expert at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. The expert recalled that, despite external pressure, the Hungarians retained contracts with Rosatom for the construction of power units for the Hungarian Paks-2 nuclear power plant. “Before the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, the leaders of the two countries agreed to hold meetings every year, but in the new circumstances it became difficult to hold them, so China is the most convenient platform for discussing the accumulated issues,” the expert noted. At the same time, Teremetsky continues, by maintaining contacts with Moscow, Orban is trying to increase the political weight of Hungary in Europe and in the world. According to him, the Hungarian prime minister positions himself as one of the leaders of the “peace party” and expects to become a mediator in the Ukrainian conflict.

Between bilateral meetings, the Russian President came to the Great Hall of the People, where Chinese President Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan met the heads of delegations in the late afternoon. The official opening ceremony of the forum will take place on October 18.

A ceremony for photographing the heads of delegations also took place at the House of the People. Putin exchanged words with President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev and President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who also arrived in Beijing.

In Bishkek, at the CIS summit, Putin told reporters that he celebrated his birthday on October 7 with Mirziyoyev and Tokayev. “They figured it out for three,” the president joked then. And in Beijing, Putin again decided to end the first working day with an informal meeting with the presidents of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

The Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square was built in the late 1950s. Once every five years, the congress of the Chinese Communist Party is held in this building. According to Xinhua, heads of more than 20 countries are expected to attend the forum, including the leaders of Ethiopia, Argentina, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, Chile and others, as well as UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. The main events of the forum and Russian-Chinese negotiations are scheduled for October 18.

Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said that the Chinese consider Putin to be the “main guest” of the forum. Peskov said the same thing: “Indeed, they say that the Russian Federation and Putin are the main guests.” According to him, the composition of the forum participants is the choice of the organizing party.

Xi Jinping will speak at the opening of the forum, and Putin plans to speak after him. Peskov said that at the negotiations with China on October 18, it is planned to discuss economic cooperation, joint projects, as well as exchange views on international affairs and regional conflicts, including the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the situation in Ukraine. There are no plans to sign any contracts during the negotiations.