What will happen to the ruble: before January, the exchange rate of the national currency will change

Analysts predict the weakening of the “wood” to 65-70 per dollar

In recent weeks, the national currency has demonstrated exemplary stability. The ruble exchange rate is quietly swaying in the range of 60-62 per dollar and euro. It is interesting that no external factors, be it the upcoming embargo on Russian oil or the establishment of parallel imports, can knock the “wooden” out of this balance. Meanwhile, exchange rate jumps of the recent past are still fresh in my memory. During the day, the ruble could either break through the bottom or take off into space: the rate floated from 50 to 120 per dollar. Even now, analysts do not believe in the long-term stability of the national currency. According to them, in the near future the ruble will begin to weaken.

If earlier, before the restrictions and sanctions from Europe and the United States, the ruble was highly dependent on oil prices and other factors, now the main thing for our currency is domestic demand for dollars and euros. After the sanctions, the volume of imports brought into Russia dropped sharply, and, accordingly, the demand for foreign currency within the Russian Federation also decreased. And the restrictions of the Central Bank on the purchase of foreign currency were in effect. As a result, the demand for dollars and euros in Russia fell, which greatly strengthened the ruble. Most likely, we will continue to observe this trend: since August, the ruble has gradually weakened (two months ago, the dollar in Russia cost a few rubles less), and by the end of the year, the value of the American currency is expected to rise to the level of 64-66 rubles. Such gradual growth will be almost imperceptible for Russians, believes Fyodor Sidorov, founder of the School of Practical Investing.

The interlocutor of MK believes that the situation may change dramatically later, when parallel import programs are fully operational – then Russian companies will be able to arrange supplies of the necessary equipment, components, electronics and household appliances from abroad.

“They will need the currency on a large scale, which means that the demand for it will also grow. This will push the dollar and the euro to rise, which may approach the mark of about 70 rubles per unit. But this will most likely happen next year, ”the expert believes.

According to the managing partner of B&C Agency Ivan Samoylenko, most likely, we will not see strong changes in exchange rates until the end of the year, since there are no reasons for this. Currently, the Russian ruble has strengthened beyond measure due to the unexpected effect of sanctions: in Russia, the volume of imports that are purchased for foreign currency has fallen sharply. And this is reflected directly in the foreign exchange market.

“The government is talking about the need to return to the “fair” exchange rate of the ruble – about 70 per dollar: this is how the country’s budget for this year was formed. And for sure, such a weakening of the national currency will occur towards the end of the year – now the dollar is already more expensive than in summer. But it will be a controlled and gradual process. Unless, of course, there are strong shocks in terms of geopolitics, which is very difficult to predict,” says Samoylenko.

However, some experts are betting not on the weakening, but on the strengthening of the ruble. If, after December 5, the EU imposes a strict embargo on oil from Russia, a barrel of Brent oil may accelerate in price to $145-150, and in this case, the value of the dollar will drop to 50 rubles, Andrey Loboda, an economist and director of communications at BitRiver, does not exclude.

“Sharp and even more shock jumps in the dollar and euro against the ruble before the end of this year should not be expected. It is quite possible that an attempt will be made to raise the dollar to 65 rubles, such a rate is quite comfortable for exporters and monetary authorities. But I believe that this is the maximum that the dollar will be capable of in confrontation with the ruble, ”he notes.

But Mikhail Zeltser, an expert on the stock market at BCS Mir Investments, believes that the prospects for the ruble are deteriorating.

“In November, a moderate weakening of the ruble to 65 per dollar is not ruled out. And in the coming months, we will not be surprised at the exchange rate of 70 for an “American”. For those who are interested in “friendly” currencies, the target for the Chinese yuan by the beginning of 2023 is 9.5 rubles, ”concludes the interlocutor of MK.