What the government said about budget priorities for 2024-2026. Main

The head of the Russian Ministry of Finance, Anton Siluanov, presented the draft federal budget, and the Minister of Economic Development, Maxim Reshetnikov, gave a forecast of socio-economic development for 2024 and the planning period of 2025 and 2026. They announced this information at a government meeting.

Siluanov emphasized that the budget policy for the upcoming three-year period takes into account and provides financial support for citizens, technological development and expansion of infrastructure, strengthening the country’s defense capability, and the full integration of new regions. Annually more than 2.5 trillion rubles. allocated for the implementation of decisions contained in the President’s message to the Federal Assembly. Just under 3 trillion rubles are allocated for the implementation of the national projects “Demography”, “Safe quality roads”, “Healthcare”, “Education”, “Digital Economy”. More than 760 billion rubles are allocated for the implementation of socio-economic development initiatives.

The federal budget has allocated more than 4.4 trillion rubles to pay a single benefit to 10 million citizens. Also, for the next three years, maternity capital will be fully supported – more than 4 million families will be able to use it. RUB 482 billion is allocated to subsidize mortgage interest rates and lump-sum payments to large families for partial mortgage repayment. More than 100 billion rubles. under the social contract program, low-income citizens will receive support.

In the healthcare sector, more than 200 billion rubles are allocated for the “Primary Health Care for Everyone” program. It is planned to build 1,700 first aid stations, renovate 6,000 clinics, and purchase 3,000 prefabricated modular structures. More than 1 trillion rubles. provided for the provision of medicines to individuals, including drugs for patients with acute cardiovascular, severe and rare (orphan) diseases. More than 430 billion rubles are allocated for cancer patients. Support for patients with diabetes was also taken into account.

In 2024, it is planned to build at least 1,300 schools. The budget also took into account the issues of hot meals, classroom management, and major repairs. About 100 billion rubles. provided for the creation of world-class campuses in Kaliningrad, Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk, as well as Nizhny Novgorod, Ufa, Chelyabinsk, Sakhalin and Tomsk (the last group using the public-private partnership mechanism).

It is planned to allocate more than 2.7 trillion rubles to support the civil industry. primarily automotive. The money will be used to support demand, preferential leasing, car loans, and gas engines. Almost 1.4 trillion rubles. to support the production of automotive components and domestic manufacturers. The budget provides funds for research and development work, the development of civil aircraft manufacturing, aircraft after-sales service and engine development.

“Unmanned aircraft systems are a new national project. The necessary resources for 2024 and beyond have been taken into account. What will it give? We will increase the volume of the Russian drone market and launch professional education in this area,” Siluanov explained.

RUB 128 billion taken into account for the modernization of machine tool industry, the creation of a head center of competence on the basis of MSTU “Stankin”. RUB 330 billion – for research and development work in the field of radio electronics, the creation of its own component base, six design centers and production sites. In the shipbuilding industry, we took into account the finances necessary for the production of important elements of equipment and preferential leasing programs.

Siluanov included the Dzhubga – Sochi highway, new sections of the Kazan – Yekaterinburg, M-12, Krasnodar – Slavyansk – Temryuk highways as the most significant road objects. It is planned to upgrade ground electric transport: it is planned to purchase electric transport for 10 Russian cities.

In 2024, 27.4 billion rubles. will be directed to the development of regional airports; it is planned to reconstruct and repair 32 runways, 20 auxiliary facilities in Makhachkala, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Novosibirsk, Grozny. There are also plans to update water transport in the ports of Gelendzhik, Poronaysk, and Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky.

According to Reshetnikov, compared with the April scenario, the forecast for 2024–2026. improved significantly.

“In 2023, we expect GDP growth to be 2.8%. In 2024, GDP growth will be 2.3 percentage points. We believe that the current fiscal and credit impulse will carry over into next year, but the pace included in the final assessment is, of course, lower than it would have been without the current tightening of monetary policy,” the minister noted.

Going forward, the growth forecast is just over 2% per year. GDP in 2024 will be 180 trillion rubles, in 2025 – more than 190 trillion rubles, in 2026 – more than 202 trillion rubles.

“This is more than what was included in the scenario conditions, an average of 9 trillion rubles. every year,” Reshetnikov emphasized.

The price of Brent oil in 2023 is expected to be $83.5 per barrel. In 2025, the figure will rise to $85 per barrel, and by 2026 it will drop to $76. Export prices for Russian oil will remain at $70 per barrel. Reshetnikov emphasized that this estimate is quite conservative – currently prices in rubles are approximately 20% higher than forecast.

The trade balance in 2023 will be $145 billion, which is the same as in 2020–2021. In the future, it will continue to grow: recovery is ensured by faster growth in exports with more restrained growth in imports.

It is expected that by the end of 2023 the ruble will strengthen at around 94 rubles/$, in 2024–2026. – at the level of 90-92 rubles/$. Presumably, inflation growth will slow down to 4.5% by the end of 2024, and reach 4% in 2025.

In the first half of 2023, investment growth was 7.6%. At the end of the year, the growth rate is expected to be 6%. In 2024–2026 the growth of investment in fixed assets will stabilize at an average level of up to 3% per year. The growth of investment activity will make it possible to satisfy growing consumer demand due to the growth of real cash incomes. In 2023 it will be 4% due to a 6.2% increase in wages, then 2.8% per year. The unemployment rate will remain at 3.1% for all three years.

“Decisions on indexation of tariffs included in the forecast have been agreed upon with all line ministries and departments,” Reshetnikov noted.

Among the external risks, the minister noted the slowdown in the global economy, which could negatively affect the situation on the Russian market. Internal risks are primarily associated with personnel shortages.