What is the plan for the reintegration of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh

On October 2, a meeting of the working group under the government of Azerbaijan on the reintegration of the region was held in the administrative center of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Stepanakert (Khankendi). After the negotiations, the administration of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for the first time published the main theses of the “reintegration plan” of Karabakh Armenians into the legal framework of Baku. This happened a day after the mass exodus of Karabakh Armenians actually ended; in any case, according to the Armenian government, 100,514 internally displaced persons from Karabakh were registered in the country.

As early as September 24, the Armenian authorities of Karabakh stated that the population was 120,000 people, but how many of them actually remained is not known. On October 1, according to Nazeli Baghdasaryan, press secretary of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the last people who wanted to were transported to the country. There are no specific statistics about the Armenians remaining in Karabakh. According to Baghdasaryan, the Armenian government provided temporary housing to 45,516 displaced people. Each displaced person will receive one-time assistance in the amount of 100,000 drams ($254), and another 50,000 drams ($127) will be paid to them for rent and utility bills.

On September 30, ex-Ombudsman of Nagorno-Karabakh Artak Beglaryan reported on social media that there were “at most several hundred people left in this region, most of whom are officials, emergency services employees, volunteers, some people with special needs who are also preparing to leave.” As TASS reports, citing sources, former presidents Arkady Ghukasyan, Bako Sahakyan and Arayik Harutyunyan may remain in the region. Baku opened a criminal case against the latter and put him on the international wanted list on charges of crimes committed during the second Karabakh war in 2020. In addition to them, the current head of the NKR Samvel Shahramanyan, elected by the parliament of the unrecognized republic on September 9, also remains in the region.

In total, according to the Prosecutor General of Azerbaijan Kamran Aliyev, the unpublished list of people subject to arrest includes 300 people. Aliyev also called on local Armenians who are on the international wanted list to voluntarily surrender. He noted that four wanted people have already been detained: ex-NKR State Minister and Russian billionaire Ruben Vardanyan, ex-head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the unrecognized republic David Babayan, ex-deputy commander of the Artsakh Defense Army David Manukyan and ex-head of the Artsakh Defense Army Levon Mnatsakanyan.

The plan for the reintegration of Karabakh Armenians will be implemented by the special representations of the President of Azerbaijan in the region. As follows from the text, in addition to ethnic Azerbaijanis, the remaining Armenian residents of Karabakh will also be included. Baku announces plans to involve Karabakh Armenians in the work of local municipalities and internal affairs bodies.

In the economic sphere, the authorities promised to bring the state of physical and social infrastructure “to the level of the national average”, as well as to present a package of incentive measures in the tax, customs and credit spheres for the accelerated development of the region. In the cultural sphere, Baku promised to guarantee the Armenian residents the right to preserve and develop culture, language, freedom of religion and the protection of cultural and religious monuments. It is noted that all weapons will be confiscated from local residents.

On September 29, Yerevan filed a lawsuit at the International Court of Justice against Azerbaijan over alleged discrimination in the region. In the lawsuit, the Armenian side calls on the Azerbaijanis to refrain from “taking punitive measures against former political representatives of Karabakh and military personnel.” Azerbaijani officials deny all accusations, saying that from the very beginning, Azerbaijani authorities encouraged local Armenians to stay. To register Karabakh Armenians, the Azerbaijani authorities launched a special portal reintegration.gov.az on September 28. According to the Ministry of Labor, “several” Armenians used this service on October 1.

In parallel, Baku is carrying out the return of Azerbaijani internally displaced persons to Karabakh. Since the end of the second Karabakh war in 2020, according to President Aliyev, 2,300 Azerbaijanis have returned to areas that came under the control of Baku, previously occupied by Armenian forces (mainly to Lachin and several villages of the Zangelan region on the border with Armenia). By the end of the year, Azerbaijani authorities expect to increase this figure to 5,500 people. According to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, during the first Karabakh war (1992–1994), about 600,000 Azerbaijanis fled Nagorno-Karabakh and the adjacent seven regions, of which more than 40,000 lived in the territory of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region.

The process of returning the Azerbaijani population to the region is carried out in accordance with the schedule determined by the authorities, said Rafik Ismailov, a member of the Russian-Azerbaijani Expert Council. According to him, the slow return of Azerbaijanis is explained by the fact that the restoration of Karabakh includes a huge amount of work to clear mines and rebuild a large territory from scratch. At the first stage, Ismailov recalls, large-scale infrastructure projects have already been implemented – the construction of roads, tunnels, power supply networks, water supply and gas supply, airports have been built in Fuzuli and Zangelan, and the construction of the airport in Lachin is being completed.

“Only after this did the construction of houses begin. All this requires huge funds, which are covered exclusively from the state budget,” the expert said. Ismailov believes that, despite the sharp outflow of the Armenian population from Karabakh, many will return, and the exodus itself occurred solely as a result of “artificial excitement.” Speaking about possible compensation to the Karabakh Armenians from Baku for the property abandoned, the expert noted that on the Azerbaijani side no one confiscated this property or carried out forced evictions. “Compensation is usually issued for damaged or destroyed property. There are no obstacles to returning and discussing all issues, including those of a property nature,” Ismailov believes. He also recalled that the Armenian side did not issue any compensation to currently returning Azerbaijani refugees from Karabakh.

“The very fact of the moment this plan was announced is indicative: the Azerbaijani authorities did not detain anyone, everyone who wanted to leave – and this is the overwhelming majority – left,” notes Armenian political scientist Johnny Melikyan. “The only serious guarantee for these people would be some kind of international mission with a presence on the ground, with a clear mandate.”