What happens to the ruble against the backdrop of Prigozhin’s rebellion

In some bank exchange offices on the afternoon of June 24, the value of the dollar exceeded 100 rubles, later a number of players lowered the rate, but the situation changes rapidly during the day.

Rosbank in the morning he offered to buy a dollar for 98 rubles, and a euro for 108 rubles. Now (at 14:33 Moscow time) the exchange rate has fallen – the dollar can be bought for 91 rubles, and the euro for 97 rubles. In the branch of Fora Bank, as the Vedomosti correspondent was convinced, during the day one could buy a dollar for 101 rubles, a euro for 115 rubles. At the branch of Sberbank, by 16:20 Moscow time, one dollar costs 91.84 rubles, and one euro costs 100.46 rubles each. In the Tsifra Bank application, you can buy a dollar for 96 rubles, a euro for 99 rubles.

VTB in its application offers 89.9 rubles. for the dollar and 98.35 for the euro. Alfa Bank the dollar can be bought for 89.9 rubles, and the euro – for 96 rubles. At Gazprombank – 89.2 rubles each. and 97 rubles. respectively. IN “Tinkoff» buying a dollar will cost 89.85 rubles, euro – 95.80 rubles, follows from the information in the mobile application.

In the offices of Raiffeisenbank, the dollar cost 87.5 rubles, the euro – 95.5 rubles. At Tinkoff Bank, the price for the dollar is 88.05 rubles, for the euro – 93.9 rubles.

Vedomosti sent inquiries to banks.

Sberbank and its offices across the country are operating as normal, a spokesman said. He assured that the bank does not fix the increased demand of clients for currency exchange operations, they are at the level of standard values. There is also no increased demand for cash withdrawals, the representative of Sberbank added: all operations are taking place as usual.

The exchange does not trade on weekends: at the close on Friday, June 23, the dollar on the Moscow Exchange cost 84.7 rubles, the euro traded at the level of 92.34 rubles, the yuan – 11.7 rubles. The official dollar exchange rate of the Bank of Russia for the weekend and Monday, June 24-26, is 84.07 rubles, the euro – 91.49 rubles, the yuan – 11.64 rubles.

Next week, the market may see the ruble exchange rate around 90 rubles / $ and a drop in shares in the region of 10%, investment strategist of Arikapital Management Company Sergey Suverov shares his forecasts: political risks can have a strong impact on financial markets, but the exact dynamics of the ruble and Russian shares will depend on the incoming news.

At the beginning of next week, the dollar, according to the basic estimate BCS, will be at the level of 85-88 rubles / $: Denis Buivolov, an analyst at BCS Mir Investments, says. But he does not exclude higher peak values ​​for the dollar – everything will depend on the news background. “In any case, increased volatility has become inevitable, and for some time the rate will be characterized by instability,” the expert notes. Now the dynamics are more connected with emotional factors, Buivolov explains: fundamentally, the exchange rate continues to rely mainly on the balance between the volume of foreign currency earnings coming into the country and the demand for it from importers.

Finam IC Strategy Director Yaroslav Kabakov calls analysts and investors hostages of the current political crisis. In his opinion, it is difficult to predict in such a situation, because in fact nothing fundamentally happened: the oil and gas industry is functioning, the Central Bank is in the same place, the shops are open. “The political confrontation that we are now seeing is, in fact, part of a special operation that is already included in the prices of companies’ shares,” the expert is sure.

If the situation exhausts itself over the weekend, nothing will happen on the market on Monday, Kabakov believes. If it continues, then at the beginning of the week the dollar may exceed 90 rubles. “Some investors will succumb to panic, others will react less sensitively, but the entire drawdown that we will see next week will be quickly bought off,” he sums up.

On the night of June 23-24, in social networks associated with the founder of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin, on his behalf, it was announced about a missile attack on one of the rear camps of a military company and other messages were circulated. The Ministry of Defense called these speeches “an informational provocation.” On the fact of the statements of the head of PMC “Wagner” of the FSB of Russia, a criminal case was initiated on the fact of calling for an armed rebellion. President Vladimir Putin addressed citizens this morning and called the rebellion a “stab in the back.”