What experts expect from the 2023 regional elections

The experts discussed what to expect from the regional elections. A round table dedicated to the forecasts of the upcoming single voting day was held at the Civil Society Development Foundation (FORGO). The head of the FORGO, Konstantin Kostin, said that the current elections are of a “technocratic nature”, when the heads of the regions are doing their usual work, which is “positively perceived by citizens.” Almost all governors’ campaigns will end in victory, but the situation is different only in Khakassia, Kostin said, where, in his opinion, “there will definitely be a second round.” The behavior of voters in regional elections in Moscow and the Moscow region (where there are more than 13 million inhabitants) will be a marker before the 2024 federal campaign, Kostin said.

Deputy Secretary of the United Russia General Council Sergei Perminov said that the current campaign is very extensive – in 85 regions there are certain levels of elections, and it has become the preparation of the electoral machine for the presidential elections in 2024, he said. According to him, the goals of United Russia in the 2023 elections are to improve the party’s results compared to the 2018 elections and to test various technologies. At the same time, it is important for the party not to miss the regional development programs and to prepare a set of support measures for the participants in the special operation and their families, he added. As for Khakassia, the party is considering different scenarios and a scenario with a second round “is quite acceptable, but it is not the only and obvious one,” Perminov said. At the Moscow mayoral elections, the turnout will exceed 50%, political scientist Alexander Asafov said, “taking into account the fact that remote electronic voting is popular.”

Aleksey Chesnakov, Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Center for Current Politics, said that the current campaign “is not only a stress test, but also a demonstration of the functionality of the political system.” He identified 11 features of this work in 2023.

The first factor is normalization, the stability of the political system, the ritualization of processes, the holding of elections on time. Then comes legitimation – the formation of authorities in the regions, and new regions are especially important here, mobilization – Ensuring the activity of voters, although this factor is always weaker in regional elections than in federal ones. Next come presentation – ensuring representation of all major social and political groups, actualization – update, in particular, this year four interim heads of regions go to the polls, stabilization – retention of players, because 17 heads of regions are up for re-election. Chesnakov also highlights discrimination – removing radical elements from the political system that could destabilize the system, communication – maintaining the communication space and media platforms, increasing work in social networks, adaptation – bringing the political agenda in line with the social agenda, to the agenda of the special operation. And complete the factor innovation – the introduction of modern instruments of political participation, such as the DEG, and institutionalization – new institutions, like wider public surveillance.

The reputation of elections is affected by the most problematic election campaigns, says Mikhail Vinogradov, president of the Petersburg Politics Foundation. He cites 2018 as an example, when there were 22 gubernatorial campaigns: “In four regions, candidates from the authorities received more than 80%, in another four – more than 70%.” But everyone remembers the “hot 2018” and competition in elections in the Khabarovsk Territory, Khakassia, the Vladimir Region and Primorye, the expert notes: “The 2023 campaign is comfortable for the authorities in that there is no “massive romantic trail around the elections.” As an example, he cites that the debate cannot be called a “fantastic show”: “Nothing new [Дональда] We didn’t see Trump. In general, except for Khakassia, in other territories where there was a surge of negativity before – like the Khabarovsk Territory, Primorye, Kemerovo Region – there is calm.

The overestimation of the factor of radical patriots played in favor of the authorities, says Vinogradov. The overregulation of the electoral process also works in favor of the authorities, he adds. The expert refers to the challenges the duality of the existing agenda, when the main media agenda is the agenda of the special operation, but the socio-economic agenda in the regions is important in the elections. In addition, the situation with personnel renewal is more difficult, when governors have been replaced in only four regions this year. Also, the challenge, according to him, is the attitude of parliamentary parties to the reduction of the party quota in the gubernatorial elections – in particular, they replaced the head of the Smolensk region, who was a member of the Liberal Democratic Party, and the head of the Omsk region, which was headed by a member of A Just Russia – For Truth.