What does Pashinyan’s statement about his readiness to withdraw from the CSTO mean?

Armenia’s membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) creates problems for Yerevan with the purchase of military equipment and the discussion of security issues, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said. “Do you think that Armenia did not have the opportunity to buy weapons or military equipment from other countries? Had. These opportunities were closed, and this was due to Armenia’s membership in the CSTO,” he said (quoted by Interfax). Pashinyan also added that Armenia will withdraw from the CSTO if it considers it to be an “incompetent organization.”

In recent years, Armenia has been purchasing weapons, in particular howitzers, from India, not counting the purchases of Russian weapons on account of Russian loans. Prior to the 2020 war, certain weapons were also purchased from China, Jordan and other countries. According to a source close to the Armenian Defense Ministry, the prime minister might have been referring to difficulties in purchasing “lethal weapons” from NATO countries. But Armenia still did not have the necessary funds to purchase expensive Western weapons, and Pashinyan himself showed little interest in re-equipping the army until 2020, he says.

When asked how the Kremlin treats the words of the Prime Minister of Armenia about the possibility of withdrawing from the CSTO, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that he considers the CSTO an effective organization. “Of course, we will continue our dialogue with our Armenian friends. We will talk with them not only on the subject of our further joint participation in the activities of the CSTO,” Peskov said.

Prime Minister Pashinyan’s statement about a possible withdrawal from the OBKB does not have support in the Armenian society, Leonid Kalashnikov (KPRF), chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, is sure.

“I don’t think that the Armenian society thinks the same as Pashinyan. Apparently, under the influence of today’s factors, he considers it possible to return to this thesis (Pashinyan had previously expressed a similar intention. – Vedomosti), but neither then nor now did the Armenian society support this. And Pashinyan should take this into account,” the parliamentarian told Vedomosti. According to him, if the intention is implemented, the CSTO “will definitely not weaken”, and Armenia will not get better. “I think this is more of a rhetoric,” suggests Kalashnikov.

Judging by the fact that the Armenian leadership is introducing the very possibility of withdrawing from the CSTO into rhetoric, the likelihood of this is quite high, says Stanislav Pritchin, senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the IMEMO RAS. Moreover, Armenia actually suspended its membership in the organization. It does not show any activity either at the level of exercises or at the level of using its quotas within the CSTO leadership, he continues.

Now, within the framework of the impending geopolitical turnaround, Armenia is trying to negotiate for itself more favorable conditions for membership in the CSTO or to get Russia to take some actions with a pro-Armenian bias during the negotiations. Russia takes a balanced position as a mediator, tries not to lean towards one or the other side – this does not suit Armenia, Pritchin continues. “And we see that by switching to Western negotiation platforms, by intensifying the strategic dialogue with the EU and the US, Armenia is trying to find their guarantees to the detriment of Russian-Armenian relations, which have been eroding lately,” the expert says.

In reality, the situation may eventually turn into a disaster for Armenia. Russia is unlikely to leave Armenia’s withdrawal from the CSTO unanswered, and this could have a very serious impact on the country’s economic situation, says Pritchin. In political terms, leaving the CSTO will be a serious image blow for the organization, but first of all, this is a blow to the security of Armenia itself, the expert concludes.

In addition, Pashinyan stated that the recognition by Armenia of the territory of Azerbaijan with an area of ​​86,600 square meters. km means that the presence of Nagorno-Karabakh in its composition is also recognized. This area of ​​the territory was named after the meeting between Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Brussels on May 15. At the same time, the Prime Minister of Armenia once again stated that he would insist on providing security guarantees to the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh.