What began to influence the dollar and will it be allowed above 100

In the last two weeks, the exchange rate has again begun to confidently strive for the value of 100 rubles/$, and the financial authorities, as in the past month, have begun to take emergency actions, apparently in order to prevent this mark from being overcome. On September 6, after the opening of trading at a level close to 98 rubles/$, the Bank of Russia announced that it had accelerated the sale of foreign currency in transactions with the National Wealth Fund (NWF) by almost 10 times. The increase, however, will be temporary: from September 14 to September 22, the Central Bank will sell foreign currency in the amount of 21.4 billion rubles daily, “mirroring” ruble investments in infrastructure from the NWF. The regulator explained this by a possible increase in demand for the currency due to the forthcoming redemption by the Ministry of Finance of Eurobonds worth $3 billion this month. But this did not make a strong impression on the market at the moment: the trades closed at a level slightly above 98 rubles / $.

The regulator began mirroring investments from the NWF from August, it was going to sell yuan worth 2.3 billion rubles in ruble terms on a daily basis. The rate began flying at least since the beginning of the summer, but until it reached 100 rubles/$, the authorities were virtually inactive, at least they did not announce serious measures to support the ruble. As early as Friday, August 11, when trading closed at 99.4 rubles/$, Central Bank Deputy Chairman Alexei Zabotkin emphasized the Bank of Russia’s commitment to a floating exchange rate and insisted that there were no financial stability risks. On August 14, the exchange rate dropped to 101 rubles/$, the regulator announced an extraordinary meeting the next day at the key rate (it was eventually raised from 8.5 to 12%), and the government began to negotiate with exporters to increase sales of foreign exchange earnings and discuss possible restrictions on capital outflows. After that, the ruble began to strengthen, but the positive momentum was enough for a week at best: from August 21, the rate again began to move towards 100.