“We’ll try to give it out not very large”: what’s going on in exchange offices with a falling dollar

As of October 31, the US dollar to ruble exchange rate was 93.2435 rubles. In 10 days it fell from 97.3 to 93.2. The euro exchange rate dropped during the same time from 102.8 to 98.6 rubles. (as of 10/31/23). However, people did not rush to buy dollars and euros at the new price.

In the exchange office on Myasnitskaya, the dollar exchange rate as of October 31 looked like this: purchase – 91.4 rubles, sale – 93.7. Euro: purchase for 97.5, sale for 101.3 rubles. You can buy an amount of 3000-4000 – both dollars and euros – without any problems. The only thing is that a purchase worth over 40,000 rubles. possible only if you have a passport (these rules apply everywhere). There were few people in the queue, only two people. One bought dollars, the second exchanged dollars for rubles. Both had small amounts. According to the cashier of the exchanger, there are fewer people now than there were before.

We call the exchange office on Leninsky Prospekt, which is listed on the corresponding website as “with the best rate.” Selling dollars – 93.80, buying 92.40. Euro: buy 98.30, sell 99.80.

— I need to buy dollars for vacation in the amount of 3000. Is it in stock, is it possible in small ones, is there a queue now?

– There are no people now, only one person. There is such a sum. If you arrive now, the sale rate is 93.80 rubles. There are no very small bills, but we will try to issue them in not very large ones.

But at the exchange office of one bank on Tverskaya Street, 5,000 dollars were not available. I was asked to wait for the bank to find out in which departments it would be possible to reserve such an amount. Dollars were sold there cheaper – at the rate of 93.30. (And with large amounts the difference is noticeable: if I were buying $5,000, at a point on Leninsky Prospekt I would have paid 2,500 rubles more.)

Director of the Center for Market Research at the National Research University Higher School of Economics Georgiy Ostapkovich says that today it is generally difficult to make any forecasts on the movement of the dollar exchange rate and oil prices, since the background of uncertainty is too high.

— In my assessment, the dollar has fallen due to the confident rhetoric of our authorities. The government says that the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will take all measures to reduce the dollar exchange rate against the ruble. In particular, a decision was made on the mandatory sale of 80% of foreign currency earnings by exporting enterprises. Exporters will have to return at least 80% of foreign currency earnings to the country, and 90% of the foreign currency received in Russian accounts will have to be sold at the Central Bank exchange rate (in other words, return rubles instead of earned currency). The procedure has not yet begun to work; now only some steps are being taken, including commissioners will work at such enterprises who will monitor the return of proceeds. Naturally, in this case, more currency will come to the market; it will not be in short supply. And if there is access to it, then it becomes cheaper. At the same time, the return of export proceeds will be valid for six months, that is, until April 2024. And it is very difficult to predict how the dollar will behave after this period.

The main thing on which the price of the dollar and euro depends is on the behavior of exports and imports. If imports prevail, then the dollar will rise. And if there is export, that is, if there is a surplus in the current account of the balance of payments, then the dollar will fall. What will happen in the movement of foreign economic goods and services for export and import is still a question.

Another factor that affects exchange rates is prices on the oil market.

“If the Middle East conflict lasts for a long time, it will certainly cause an increase in oil prices; they could go to $100 per barrel or even higher,” says Ostapkovich. — And with rising oil prices, our trade balance improves. And the dollar will fall because currency will come to the country.

Let’s move on. The Central Bank’s policy of almost doubling the key rate, from 7.5 to 15, played a role in the fall of the dollar. This also affects the dollar exchange rate and reduces its value. It will be difficult to buy imports, they will focus more on domestic goods, and the dollar will fall accordingly.

In addition, along with the end of the main summer vacation period, people’s “dollar” activity also ended (or rather was interrupted); however, by the New Year the process will go in the opposite direction.

To summarize, the economist suggested that while the procedure for returning export proceeds will work for six months, the dollar should not go towards 100 rubles. Rather, it will go towards 88–92 rubles.

— Now the factors of the dollar moving towards 90 rubles. much more than 100 rubles,” says the expert. — And in general, you need to understand that for people the “100 rubles” border is a red line. Even those who do not understand anything about exchange rates are sure that if the dollar is more expensive than 100 rubles, then something wrong is happening to our economy.

— People will now buy more currencies at lower prices, what do you think?

– This is determined by the person himself. Still, we have a tendency towards an increase in the dollar exchange rate and a fall in the ruble. Over ten years, the dollar has increased in price from 30 rubles to 90–100 rubles per dollar, three times. And this trend is here to stay. Therefore, in order for there to be any sense in playing “currency games,” you need, firstly, to play for a long time, and secondly, you need to have a serious amount of primary capital – 3-4 million rubles. But I would not recommend taking any steps now. It is dangerous to give such advice. Who knows how things will go for us, perhaps our state will ban currency altogether, as it did in Soviet times. Now, for example, in conditions of a high discount rate, deposits will be attractive… And dollars are a risky game.

At the same time, if a person is going on vacation abroad next summer, where our cards do not work and cash is needed, then when the minimum is reached, it would be possible to purchase a certain amount of dollars or euros for spending on vacation. And to understand when this “minimum” will occur, you need to follow quotes and expert opinions. Most likely, by next summer the dollar will be definitely higher than it is now.