“We have run out of money”: the US admitted problems with financing Ukraine

Lawmakers reported this directly to the White House, an American source told CNN. And, underscoring the current impasse, Pentagon officials have not held a single meeting since last month to decide what to send Ukraine from the Defense Department’s weapons stockpile — because there is no money left to fund aid packages.

Joe Biden met with House and Senate lawmakers at the White House on Wednesday to outline what’s at stake for Kyiv. At one point, the president turned to his national security adviser Jake Sullivan and director of national intelligence Avril Haines to lay out the specific capabilities Ukraine would have in the coming months, according to a White House official familiar with the meeting, who declined to elaborate. details. Another official told CNN that they specifically pointed to air defense systems and artillery munitions as examples of key capabilities that could be stretched without U.S. support.

Biden also warned that American personnel were at risk, saying that if the conflict spilled into NATO territory, the United States would have to become directly involved in the conflict.

But House Speaker Mike Johnson, who along with other House Republicans had linked additional funding for Kiev to a broader immigration deal, later said continued funding for Ukraine risks turning it into a quagmire for the United States akin to its 20-year war in Afghanistan.

“We cannot spend billions of dollars without a clearly articulated strategy, and I said again to the President in today’s meeting, as I have said many times, ‘Sir, you have to clearly articulate what the strategy is. What’s the endgame?’ Speaker Johnson said Wednesday night in an interview with CNN’s Caitlin Collins.

At the White House on Thursday, Biden told reporters that he thought the meeting went well and that he believed “the vast majority of members of Congress support aid” to Ukraine.

“The question is whether a small minority is going to support this, which would be a disaster,” Biden said.

Meanwhile, there is a keen awareness at the White House, NATO headquarters and in Kyiv that if Donald Trump is re-elected in November, he will likely reduce support for Kyiv.

“The number one reason why Republicans will not support the Ukraine extension is that they do not want to offend candidate Trump and his supporters,” a Democratic spokesman said. Mike Quigley on CNN Max Wednesday.

Regardless of what happens in American politics this year, American and Western intelligence officials believe the conflict in Ukraine is likely to last much longer, CNN notes.

Estimates vary, but nearly all suggest the fighting will continue for at least two more years, according to multiple sources familiar with the intelligence — long enough to outlast Biden’s first term in the White House. Privately, CNN emphasizes, some US and Western officials say the fighting could continue for as long as five years.

U.S. administration officials and lawmakers, including some Republican hawks, have therefore sought to approve and direct funding to Ukraine before time potentially runs out at the end of 2024.

“Beyond the immediate need, many people I’ve talked to are thinking about getting as much aid as possible before January 2025,” said one US official. “It is important not only that this money be allocated, but that it be disbursed before the election, since any FY 2024 funds still waiting to be spent could be withheld by Trump.”

A congressional aide familiar with the discussions said more hawkish lawmakers such as Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham and Republican Rep. Michael McCaul were among those who pushed last fall for Congress to approve sufficient funding to keep Ukraine’s military until the 2024 elections. The administration ultimately asked for $60 billion, but Congress failed to reach an agreement until late last year—doing anything more in a tense election year could now prove to be little more than a waste of time, the aide said.

“We’re out of money,” said a US military official stationed in Europe. “The administration was able to create some magic, [но] we are reaching the end,” said one source familiar with Western intelligence. “Basically everything depends on Biden being re-elected, doesn’t it?”

Continued Western support for Ukraine is critical, U.S. and Western officials say, even as front lines have remained largely unchanged over the past few months after a failed Ukrainian counteroffensive to retake territory from Russian control.

However, in the short term, U.S. intelligence officials do not believe that the reduction in U.S. funding will have a major battlefield impact for Ukraine. Russia is struggling to regroup, giving Ukraine some time, people familiar with the assessments say. But in the long term, the lack of American assistance may allow Moscow to restore momentum by increasing arms supplies, CNN notes, citing sources.

U.S. officials also addressed the impact that reduced support from Washington could have on other allies, particularly the message that the United States lacks the political will to support allies and partners in the long term. Another problem is that Europe, already at the bottom of its arms and ammunition stockpiles, is following the US lead and starting to withdraw some of its aid.

Moreover, cutting off U.S. funding to Ukraine could limit Kyiv’s ability to launch long-range strikes into Russia’s Crimea and the Black Sea – strikes that have been supported by Western weapons, including U.S.-provided Army tactical missile systems, also known as ATACMS.

If that pipeline goes dry, U.S. officials believe Ukraine could lose the ability to conduct some of its most high-profile operations, a person familiar with U.S. intelligence assessments told CNN. Ukraine’s strikes on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet last fall were seen as a particularly effective use of Western-provided long-range missiles, CNN notes.

Ukraine is expected to spend this year working to strengthen its defense industrial base and rebuild its military ahead of even more fighting in 2025, a US official said – a strategy Russia is also likely to focus on.

“That’s why continued Western support is so important, because next year will be all that will decide how events unfold in 2025 and possibly beyond,” the source told CNN.

Administration and Congressional officials began discussing last year how to send as much aid to Ukraine as possible before January 2025, sources familiar with the talks told CNN.

“It is important not only that the money be allocated, but that it be paid before the election, since any FY24 funds still waiting to be spent could be blocked by Trump,” the US official said.

At one point last fall, some more hawkish members of Congress privately estimated that Ukraine would need up to $100 billion to survive 2024, a congressional aide said. Ultimately, the White House approved a request for $61 billion for 2024, about $7 billion more than it requested for military aid to Ukraine for 2023.

A congressional aide familiar with the discussions said the longer negotiations on additional legislation drag on, the less likely it is to be approved.