“Washington can become a mediator, why not?” – Kommersant FM

The West calls for de-escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan held telephone conversations with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and French President Emmanuel Macron. Paris initiates an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. The Kremlin, in turn, expressed deep concern about the events taking place. Kommersant FM political commentator Dmitry Drize believes that Armenia is thus being pushed to quickly conclude a peace treaty with Azerbaijan.

This was expected. Evidence of this is the events of recent days, the situation was systematically heating up. Numerous sources reported the transfer of Azerbaijani troops to the Nagorno-Karabakh region. And then familiar phrases began to sound: Baku is carrying out anti-terrorist measures of a local nature, the civilian population has nothing to fear. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan appeals to Russia and the UN to stop everything.

Everything has long been clear to everyone: the only way out of the situation is to sign a peace treaty with our neighbor. Armenia loses Karabakh, which, by the way, was formally an independent republic and was not part of it, but it gains the opportunity to transition to a full-fledged peaceful life. This includes economic modernization, investment and access to world markets, including through participation in new transport corridors through the territory of Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Russia is making it clear in every possible way that Pashinyan has burned bridges – he bowed to the West, and began to flirt with Kiev. What kind of ally is he in this case?

A very convenient position: it’s your own fault – get out of it yourself. If you chose the wrong side, let America and the EU help you now.

At the same time, it was initially clear that Moscow could not physically intervene. But she is always ready to act as a mediator in concluding the above agreement and gain the laurels of a peacemaker. Former partners failed everything, but we succeeded. True, theoretically, Pashinyan could be overthrown, and the new government could start a full-scale war. But, again, the Kremlin did not call for this and does not bear responsibility for the consequences.

Now regarding whether Armenia will remain under Russian influence or not, and whether it was under it in principle. In the Russian Federation they believe that it will not go anywhere. This issue is controversial. Especially if a peace treaty is finally concluded. Then an ally is not really an ally, it turns out, and is needed, as well as numerous integration organizations, for example, the CSTO.

And it doesn’t matter at all whether Pashinyan remains in power or not. There are very big doubts that the current prime minister will be replaced by an openly pro-Russian politician. But continuing to consider Russia to be to blame for everything is, perhaps, a way out for the current leadership of the republic.

Meanwhile, it is still unclear whether Baku warned its Russian partner about its actions at all or did not consider it necessary to do so. The administration of President Ilham Aliyev says it warned. However, in Moscow they answer that nothing of the kind happened. But still, the eyebrows do not frown menacingly – at most they experience a feeling of anxiety and concern. Moreover, our peacekeepers seem to be in no danger.

Who definitely benefits from the current events is Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey’s influence in the South Caucasus is increasingly increasing, and it seems that in the future it will not be limited to this region alone. Maybe not right away, but over time for sure. And finally, Washington can become a mediator, why not? At the very least, this option cannot be ruled out.

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