Wars of the future: armed conflicts expected in 2024 named

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Almost since the start of the war between Israel and the Gaza Strip, there has been talk and speculation about what will happen “the day after tomorrow,” notes Sky News Middle East correspondent Alistair Buncall: “Who will govern Gaza? Will an independent Palestinian state be created? Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel? And who will take responsibility for the failure to prevent Hamas attacks? So, when is the day after tomorrow? Anyone expecting or hoping for even a moment of Israeli “victory” will likely be disappointed.”

Even if Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, emerges from the underground tunnels waving a white flag, the military operation in Gaza will not end there, Sky News notes.

Israel has already declared 2024 a “year of war,” and it will take months, perhaps even years, for Israeli security forces to completely clear Gaza and destroy every last remnant of Hamas—if they can do it at all.

“I would highlight Benny Ganz as an important point,” says Alistair Buncall. – According to polls, the opposition leader is Israel’s most popular politician and is a candidate to become the country’s next prime minister if Netanyahu resigns. The former defense minister and IDF chief of staff joined the military cabinet not as part of a “political partnership, but because of a common destiny.” “He does not intend to remain part of the Netanyahu government any longer than he needs to, and so the day he leaves will be a defining moment and a challenge for Bibi (Netanyahu).”

In addition to a change in Israel’s political leadership, long-serving and increasingly weak Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas may be forced to appoint a successor or at least delegate responsibilities to key political allies, a Sky News journalist said.

However, it will be extremely difficult to find someone acceptable to both Israel and the Palestinian people, many of whom have lost all faith in the ruling Palestinian Authority.

Lebanon remains an unresolved issue, and if diplomatic efforts to push Hezbollah back from the Israeli border fail, Israel could be persuaded to take military action, Bankall predicts. A war with Lebanon would likely make the Gaza conflict seem minor in comparison and could be costly for Israel as well as the Lebanese.

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Another author, Sky correspondent Diana Magnei, makes her forecasts about the Ukrainian crisis. As much as President Zelensky may dislike the terminology, the most realistic assessment of where the conflict with Russia is at seems to be that given by its commander-in-chief, Valery Zaluzhny, she said. “There probably won’t be a big, beautiful breakthrough,” he told The Economist in November.

“In other words, this is a stalemate,” states Diana Magnei. – Dirty – or already frozen – rat-infested trenches bordering dense minefields stretch along more than 2,000 km of front line. Above, a myriad of drones provide surveillance in the skies and the ability to strike on both sides. Barring improved jamming capabilities, little will move without these drones noticing.”

Drones and advances in electronic warfare will continue to be critical. Ukraine says it needs technological breakthroughs in a number of other areas. “This will depend on clever engineers or scientists, not to mention the fact that Ukraine needs consistency from the West in terms of ammunition and other supplies,” Sky News notes.

Signs of Western fatigue from the Ukrainian conflict may inspire the Russian leadership to go on the offensive, the Sky News correspondent notes, recalling that Moscow recently called Odessa a “Russian city,” which may indicate “long-term ambitions to control the entire Black Sea coast, currently insane ambitious, but time seems to be on Putin’s side here.”

It should be expected that Ukraine will become more ambitious in terms of strikes deep into Crimea and Russian territory, Diana Magnei warns at the same time.

There is also the possibility of Trump winning the election and a number of unknown factors that it may entail, notes Sky News and concludes that it is safe to assume that the Ukrainian conflict will not end in 2024.

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And Sky News Asia correspondent Helen-Anne Smith asks: could January’s presidential election in Taiwan spark conflict in Asia?

There is no doubt that the January 13 vote will heighten tensions in an already tense region. Taiwan is a self-governing island that China views as a breakaway province, Sky News recalls. Chinese President Xi Jinping has repeatedly expressed his desire to “reunify” it, using force if necessary. China views it as deeply provocative that elections are being held on the island at all.

Moreover, the most likely outcome, a victory for Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te, is the outcome that Beijing would consider most egregious. This is because the DPP has taken the hardest stance against its powerful neighbor, and because Lai himself is a more provocative figure, with a history of being more vocal in support of independence than other members of his party.

There is no doubt that the vote and Lai’s likely victory will spark further military activity in the strait, says Helen-Anne Smith: “Expect tens, perhaps hundreds of Chinese fighters and bombers to head into Taiwanese airspace, many of them most likely, they will cross the so-called median line and enter its air defense zone. There will also likely be major military exercises involving warships and the launch of military missiles.”

While a full-scale invasion is still very unlikely, the greatest risk is that increased military activity will lead to some miscalculation or accident that Taiwan and/or its US backers will feel they have no choice but to respond to .

President Biden has repeatedly said the US will defend Taiwan if necessary, and there are concerns that despite recent diplomatic efforts, relations between China and the US are still bad enough that there may not be an adequate “response” if the situation escalates.

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The Dark Continent will also be restless, predicts Sky News Africa correspondent Yusra Elbagir.

Sudan in particular has found itself embroiled in the worst episode of conflict it has seen since the civil war, which itself eventually tore Africa’s largest country in two: “After a revolution in 2019 toppled longtime dictator Omar al Bashir and his former henchmen clung to power and eventually turned on each other in an explosive confrontation. The country’s army is now battling its second-largest armed group, the Janjaweed militia-turned-paramilitary group the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), with gunfire, airstrikes and bullets, killing at least 12,000 people and capturing hundreds of thousands.” .

The calls for freedom, peace and equality that had marked the revolution have now been replaced by calls for peace and access to humanitarian aid.

Large areas of the capital Khartoum have been besieged by the Rapid Support Forces, which are said to be committing widespread sexual violence against women and girls and occupying civilian homes. Aid convoys are under attack from both sides, and millions of people are struggling to access basic supplies.

In Darfur, RSF-backed ethnic violence devastated non-Arab communities as army headquarters fell under their control. In just eight months of war, 6.6 million people were forced to flee their homes.

Many more are expected to be forced to flee as international mediation fails to secure a lasting ceasefire and aid funding dries up. There is no end in sight to the war in Sudan and it will continue, creating a horrific humanitarian crisis and scattering the entire country’s population around the world.

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Myanmar’s military leadership, which took charge of the country in February 2021, faces its biggest threat yet after armies of ethnic rebels joined forces and overran military outposts – and destroyed border crossings with neighboring China, Sky News chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay said.

The so-called Three Brotherhood Alliance has teamed up to fight military government forces in Shan State, an area that borders both China and Thailand.

This is important for two reasons, says Stuart Ramsay.

First, armed groups have operated independently of each other for many years and have largely existed to protect their own interests – be it business or territory – as opposed to fighting for a greater cause; this “great thing” is the new federal structure of Myanmar (formerly known as Burma).

Secondly, and this is very important, to date China has done nothing to stop them. While the Chinese have been nominally supportive of Myanmar’s military authorities for years, relations have cooled in recent months, leaving the ruling military to deal with well-funded armed opposition forces as well as ongoing uprisings across the country.

The Brotherhood Alliance has indicated that, like many other ethnic armies in Myanmar, it now intends to overthrow the military government and is joining the National Unity Government (NUG), the political coalition previously ousted by the junta.

The NUG militia, commonly known as the People’s Defense Forces (PDF), are not very well armed or experienced but have been fighting the military since the 2021 coup.

Many have teamed up with ethnic armed organizations that have been fighting the military for decades, notes Sky News chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay.

Although the armed opposition tends to have fewer weapons, it has been able to remain active largely due to the influx of young professionals who have left the country’s major cities to take up arms.

Myansa’s army still controls most major cities and roads and uses artillery and airstrikes to fight armed opposition and ethnic armed groups who largely control the countryside.

The combination of ethnic armies, militias and the National Income Tax could create a momentum that the military may simply not be able to control, predicts Sky News chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay.