Warehouse premises have become leaders in price growth among commercial premises

Increased demand has provided warehouse space with the first place in terms of price growth in the commercial real estate market. Over the past year, the cost of such objects has increased by an average of 67%, while retail space has risen in price by 9%, and offices have fallen in price by 6%. Experts are confident that the trend will continue due to the growing shortage in the warehouse market, rising rental rates and construction costs.

Prices for warehouse space in Russia in January-June 2023 increased by an average of 67%, to 6.5 million rubles. per lot, according to a study by Avito Real Estate. This is the highest growth among all types of commercial real estate. Retail space, according to Avito Nedvizhimost, has risen in price by 9%, to 16.3 million rubles. for the average lot, offices and hotels fell by 6%, to 10.1 million rubles, and by 5%, to 20 million rubles. respectively.

The dynamics is explained by the high demand of buyers for warehouse space. According to Avito Nedvizhimost’s estimates, interest in acquiring such properties in April-June 2023 increased by 17% year-on-year. Demand for retail space remained unchanged, while demand for hotels decreased by 3% yoy, analysts said.

The high interest in buying warehouses is due to the growing demand of tenants. The volume of transactions with warehouses in Moscow and the Moscow region in January-June 2023 reached 1.4 million square meters. m, which is comparable to the result of the entire 2022, calculated in Ricci. There are practically no vacant premises in the region, according to consultants. At the end of June 2023, the vacancy rate did not exceed 1%, and by the end of the year it will drop to 0.5%, Ricci points out. The most acute deficit with large blocks. According to Ricci, vacant properties with an area of ​​10,000 sq. m. m in the region there are no more than eight.

Warehouse rental rates in such conditions are also growing. According to Ricci’s calculations, by June 2023, since the end of 2022, the average has increased by 14%, to 6.5 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m annually, which was a historical maximum. The cost of selling ready-made properties increases following the increase in rental rates, as the market focuses on the value of profitability, the NF Group notes.

The warehouse segment remains the most attractive in the commercial real estate market, points out partner Ricci | Consulting and Appraisal” by Yana Kuzina. Shopping centers, according to her, have suffered much more significantly from the departure of Western tenants. There is still a high vacancy in this segment, which reached 13.5% in Moscow in June, Nikoliers calculated. And although the prices of many goods have risen, the turnover of retailers, on which the rent depends, is not increasing, Ms. Kuzina adds. In 2022, the average base rental rate in Moscow shopping centers decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, says Tatyana Divina, head of research and analytics at the Commonwealth Partnership (CMWP).

Office complexes have also been hit hard by the exodus of overseas tenants. In 2023, Moscow will buy and lease 115,000 sq. m. m of office real estate is less than free, forecast in CMWP. According to Ricci, from April 2022 to March 2023, due to the early termination of lease agreements in Moscow, 202.4 thousand square meters were vacated. m of offices, and 71% of failures were initiated by foreign tenants. The average annual rental rate in Moscow business centers in January-June 2023 decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, to RUB 19.7 thousand. for 1 sq. m, specified in CMWP.

Until the end of 2023, the growth in the cost of buying and renting warehouses will continue, says Andrey Postnikov, General Director of Orientir. According to him, the trend is facilitated by the weakening of the ruble, inflationary risks and an increase in construction costs. Many suppliers of engineering systems and equipment for reloading are still setting prices in relation to the exchange rate, says Anton Alyabyev, Senior Director of Warehouse and Industrial Real Estate at CORE.XP. IBC Real Estate adds that the cost of building warehouses is affected by the tense situation in the labor market and interruptions in the supply of individual components.

Daria Andrianova