Vucic may let Kosovo go to the UN

European Commissioner for Foreign Policy Josep Borrell on February 27 published the full text of the draft agreement between the authorities of Serbia and Kosovo, which in Belgrade is called the “French-German” plan for the settlement of relations between them. Experts call the document “a de facto recognition of Kosovo’s independence” and suspect that Serbia, if adopted, will have only one serious obstacle on its way to the European Union – the absence of sanctions against Russia.

Josep Borrell authorized the publication of the plan following talks in Brussels on February 27 between Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo leader Albin Kurti mediated by European diplomats. Borrell stated that both politicians “showed responsibility” and did not amend the document.

The plan consists of 11 points. The most important of them concern the international status of Kosovo. They affirm Serbia’s refusal to establish any obstacles for Kosovo’s accession to any international organizations, including the UN. It is the lack of representation at the main world forum that is one of the barriers to the universal recognition of Pristina, which, according to the Serbian constitution, is an integral part of the country. In return, Serbia receives the right to direct financial assistance to national communities in Kosovo, the formalization of the status of the Serbian Orthodox Church in the region, and the protection of Serbian culture and religion. Aleksandar Vucic has already announced that, despite the publication of the document, it is still only a draft and negotiations should be continued.

Nevertheless, these events caused a political storm in Serbia. For example, the leader of the European Movement of Kosovo Serbs, Rada Trajkovic, compared Vučić on her Twitter with the medieval Serbian patriarch Arseniy III Chernojevic, who initiated the resettlement of more than 40,000 ethnic Serbs from Kosovo to Vojvodina. “Serbs in Kosovo are close to mass emigration. And the authorities are doing nothing to stabilize the situation. I’m afraid the plan is to actually allow them to leave. And without the Serbs, no unification of communities is needed. And the “problem” is solved! she is sure. And the leader of the “right” Serbian party “Movement for People’s Freedom” Miroslav Parovich called the agreement a “coup d’état”, which “further exacerbates the crisis” in which the Serbian authorities are. And the relatively moderate representatives of the “People’s Party” have already suggested that Vučić “explain himself in the Assembly” for his actions.

Nationalist deputies from four opposition parties demand the resignation of Aleksandar Vučić. The Serbian Orthodox Church in Belgrade began serving prayers “for our holy things” in Kosovo and Metohija. The first emotional outburst may grow into something more serious in the coming days after Vucic’s next public speeches on the Kosovo issue. So far, the president has only shown on his social networks that he “pretends not to be tired” and after the “fifth wash” he is going to work further. “Tonight I answer all political manipulators and media manipulators who will trample on their country for the sake of a crumb of power,” he announced his next public speech. His past conversations with the press on the Kosovo problem contained mainly assurances that the president was not going to recognize the independence of Kosovo, as well as a flurry of rebuttals to opponents who regularly accuse Vucic of betraying the country.

Meanwhile, EU representatives strongly welcome the progress in the deal. Josep Borrell announced the “progress and responsibility” of both parties, and the German Foreign Ministry also supported the deal. Even the Norwegian ambassador to Serbia said that his country supports the agreement and hopes for a speedy normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia. The EU is backing up its wishes not only with pressure, which Vučić has repeatedly complained about. On February 28, it became known that the EU will allocate 610 million euros to Serbia irrevocably for the construction of a railway between Belgrade and Nis. Alexander Vucic estimates the total cost of the project at 2.7 billion euros, of which only 525 million will be spent from the country’s budget.

Serbian political analysts believe that even Kosovo’s “de facto recognition of independence” will bring the country “only a little closer” to joining the European Union. This, as almost the main goal of his reign, was repeatedly called by Vučić. They still see Serbia’s refusal to impose anti-Russian sanctions as the main obstacle. “If there is a visible movement, then, I think, in sanctions against Russia. We can talk at least about the initial steps in this direction. On the one hand, the pressure will increase, on the other, the readiness of Serbia will increase. After all, this is an indicator of whether Europe will continue to consider Serbia as a reliable partner and whether investors will come to Serbia,” Jelica Minich, leader of the European Movement in Serbia, told Beta news agency.

Serbs are most embarrassed in the draft document by the recognition of passports, diplomas and license plates of Kosovo, says Oleg Bondarenko, director of the Progressive Policy Foundation. And, of course, in the same series is the “question of non-resistance” on the part of Serbia to Kosovo’s entry into various international organizations. “These points are the most dangerous for Vučić and I doubt they will be accepted,” he says. But all this is unlikely to help Serbia become a member of the European Union. “This is impossible for many reasons, but above all, due to the fact that not a single EU member state has a vested interest in Serbia,” says Bondarenko. The European Union is not ready to accept another 7 million people. Weighing these risks, Vucic most likely will not impose sanctions against Russia: “Everything will remain at the level of declarations.”